WintersGrasp Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Got to figure 4 model runs left for us to enjoy the snow on paper with the NAM. Honestly..I was stoked for this storm when I got up this morning. This afternoon....sucks. Looking forward to the 0 Z NAM !!!!!!It is funny that so frequently, during the past several winters, I have found myself (in NE NJ Essex county) initially hoping that a storm shifts further SE on the models, only to be in the same boat as the NW crew hoping that it shifts back NW. Just west of NYC, we're spared the heaviest banding from those big coastal crushers that pound LI through SNE. I was never expecting more than 8-12" with this one, but the models showing 15-20" amounts made this one truly interesting (being that it is March). It is a reminder of just how difficult it is to pull something like that off in March (or ANY month in winter for that matter). I'm hoping that places like NW NJ, even in to NEPA get hit hard from this one..feel like it's been a long time since the Poconos jackpotted. Hopefully the 0z runs bring back some good news Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: There are so many model runs left, I wouldn't worry about it. Anything more than 6" is great anyway, those 25"+ totals were just eye candy honestly. Dude - smart people are paid big $ to code these systems. This is the year 2017. I had like 16 runs in a row of 18+ inches. Something is wrong here..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 They should only produce QPF progs out to like 72 hours or something. Would save a lot of headache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: They should only produce QPF progs out to like 72 hours or something. Would save a lot of headache. I am over it....if coastal NJ is locked and loaded for a foot + , I book 2 nights in AC or something. just have trouble understanding how occurs with the computer coding that I hear about and science. I really thought this storm would get me near 65 to 70 inches of snow for the season.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 26 minutes ago, Animal said: Dude - smart people are paid big $ to code these systems. This is the year 2017. I had like 16 runs in a row of 18+ inches. Something is wrong here..... I'm no computer expert, and am not claiming to be one, but these systems aren't perfect. All I'm saying is we can't live and die by model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 On the GFS it looks like we are caught between the ULL and the coastal. Seeing the euro and now the GFS bump east is no bueno. Both show a late phase now. At this point if all that is on the table is 2-4 then hopefully it whiffs completely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: I'm no computer expert, and am not claiming to be one, but these systems aren't perfect. All I'm saying is we can't live and die by model runs. Agree... Let me try this again. Total BS going from 2 feet plus to 5 inches in 12 hours or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Animal said: Agree... Let me try this again. Total BS going from 2 feet plus to 5 inches in 12 hours or less. Well yeah, I agree, but don't forget the storm is coming on land now. Let's see how later runs play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, snywx said: On the GFS it looks like we are caught between the ULL and the coastal. Seeing the euro and now the GFS bump east is no bueno. Both show a late phase now. At this point if all that is on the table is 2-4 then hopefully it whiffs completely Something like 12 GEFS members still look good for warning criteria snows. I think the operational runs probably correct a bit west to meet the ensemble means and most of us end up in line for a general 7-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 57 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Something like 12 GEFS members still look good for warning criteria snows. I think the operational runs probably correct a bit west to meet the ensemble means and most of us end up in line for a general 7-12" Was so hoping to crack the 12 inch mark. Looks like a no go again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 If he shows...we rap snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 This is us post bust in late 90's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Good early signs on the GFS. Higher western heights, a little less distance between the waves, more negatively tilted trough. Reel 'em back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Good early signs on the GFS. Higher western heights, a little less distance between the waves, more negatively tilted trough. Reel 'em back in. I live by this song. Snow math is real I told my wife.....( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GGEM and NAM look good for a start. GFS as well, but h5 doesn't translate to surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Hi old friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 44 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: GGEM and NAM look good for a start. GFS as well, but h5 doesn't translate to surface. Add UKIE to the mix. Where is our leader, snywx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, tornadojay said: Hi old friends Holy sheet. Sup dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, BxEngine said: Holy sheet. Sup dude Sup man. Just checking in and sayin hi. Lots of snow for us soon. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, tornadojay said: Sup man. Just checking in and sayin hi. Lots of snow for us soon. :-) Dont jinx us yet! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, BxEngine said: Dont jinx us yet! Lol I won't. I promise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 hour ago, nesussxwx said: Add UKIE to the mix. Where is our leader, snywx! Ugh I hate when work gets in the way of tracking !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Jeez.. 0z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 06z name is INSANE! 2-3 feet for Rockland, Westchester, Bergen, Orange, and Putnam counties! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6Z nam IS INSANE.destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 47 minutes ago, Animal said: 6Z nam IS INSANE....CRUSJED 6z gfs is a complete and utter disaster. basically nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 So, we talking 12-18 based on most guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 17 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: So, we talking 12-18 based on most guidance? Albany nws pegs u at 16-20 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 44 minutes ago, Animal said: Albany nws pegs u at 16-20 inches. Sounds great. Looks like a uniform 1-2 feet across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 18 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Sounds great. Looks like a uniform 1-2 feet across the board. I'll believe it when I see it. Waiting on another screw job here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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