IrishRob17 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 5.2" when I left for work a little before 8am, roads weren't bad, slushy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4.5" down. 30F now with increasing snow flake size and intensity. Hoping to eclipse 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 24 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Enough of this Kumbaya business. Stick it over Jones Beach and let 'em rain! LOL, thanks for the honesty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Juliancolton said: Enough of this Kumbaya business. Stick it over Jones Beach and let 'em rain! Move that from Jones Beach to Islip and you have a deal bro. The Millenium storm had a track right near Islip and kept most of us all snow (out to Long Beach at any rate- 12-16 inches!.) When you have a wrapped up storm like this, all you have to be is just west of the track, even if it's just 10 miles west of it. The only ones who would be complaining about an Islip track are people who live in the Hamptons......and they probably wouldn't even care lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, Paragon said: Move that from Jones Beach to Islip and you have a deal bro. The Millenium storm had a track right near Islip and kept most of us all snow (out to Long Beach at any rate- 12-16 inches!.) When you have a wrapped up storm like this, all you have to be is just west of the track, even if it's just 10 miles west of it. The only ones who would be complaining about an Islip track are people who live in the Hamptons......and they probably wouldn't even care lol. Nah.. Wrapped up storms are no bueno for us in the "mountains". We want a hugger! hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, snywx said: Nah.. Wrapped up storms are no bueno for us in the "mountains". We want a hugger! hehe I could use a 966mb tracked right over the island.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, snywx said: Nah.. Wrapped up storms are no bueno for us in the "mountains". We want a hugger! hehe I mean it's not mutually exclusive to have a wrapped up kind of storm take a track great for 99% of the forum ;-) The storms we were talking about in the other thread were like that- March 1888, Millenium storm and late Feb 2010...... did you get over 20" in all of those storms? They are kinda rare though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I could use a 966mb tracked right over the island.. Islip :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: I mean it's not mutually exclusive to have a wrapped up kind of storm take a track great for 99% of the forum ;-) The storms we were talking about in the other thread were like that- March 1888, Millenium storm and late Feb 2010...... did you get over 20" in all of those storms? They are kinda rare though. Unfortunately for us to do well you guys have to rain while we have to fringe for you guys to do well. Its never a good sign for us if the coast is all snow. An event where this entire sub forum does well is a rarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, snywx said: Unfortunately for us to do well you guys have to rain while we have to fringe for you guys to do well. Its never a good sign for us if the coast is all snow. An event where this entire sub forum does well is a rarity. Come on, it happened three times in 130 years! Must be the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, snywx said: Unfortunately for us to do well you guys have to rain while we have to fringe for you guys to do well. Its never a good sign for us if the coast is all snow. An event where this entire sub forum does well is a rarity. We've just had weird storms lately. The storms that I read about from the past seem to have had much larger precipitation shields. I'm not sure why that's been happening lately, but some of the bigger storms in the past had heavy snow stretching across several states, from the MA and the MW all the way to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Juliancolton said: Come on, it happened three times in 130 years! Must be the rule. Well, if you read Kocin's book, it used to happen a lot more in the past- those are just the more noteworthy ones. Probably another sign of CC. Only the morons like the fools who inhabit the current administration can't see it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, Juliancolton said: Come on, it happened three times in 130 years! Must be the rule. lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: We've just had weird storms lately. The storms that I read about from the past seem to have had much larger precipitation shields. I'm not sure why that's been happening lately, but some of the bigger storms in the past had heavy snow stretching across several states, from the MA and the MW all the way to the NE. Storm track is further E than back in the day. I remember growing up seeing LI snow/rain then dry slot while the interior was crushed. SE CT was where snowstorms went to die now they jack once a yr! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, snywx said: Storm track is further E than back in the day. I remember growing up seeing LI snow/rain then dry slot while the interior was crushed. SE CT was where snowstorms went to die now they jack once a yr! Yeah I grew up with the same thing. I had zero snow days in the 80s- and our only historic events occurred during vacations lol- April 1982 and February 1983. I'm not sure if it's going further east or if they're actually going further west (which doesn't seem to make sense but hear me out.) Let's say that the SE Ridge has become stronger, the gulf stream slowed down, or warmer SST or whatever. Let's say that caused storms that would have normally have gone offshore and missed all of us are now hitting Long Island and the city. That would explain how you can still get a decent amount of snow in a milder winter. So basically what I'm saying is that the storms that would have been way offshore are now hitting LI and the storms that would have been hitting you guys hard have gone even further to the west. Add to all that the fact that the extreme positive anomalies that used to only reside in the Arctic are now making it into the northern part of the US (for example, look at how mild the winter has been in places like Minneapolis, Chicago and Burlington, VT.) I don't remember seeing such a predominance of double digit positive monthly anomalies before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Seems like the Tuesday storm has a pretty large shield based on modeling and hope it shows to a crawl. What is the degree of blocking looking like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: Yeah I grew up with the same thing. I'm not sure if it's going further east or if they're actually going further west (which doesn't seem to make sense but hear me out.) Let's say that the SE Ridge has become stronger, the gulf stream slowed down, or warmer SST or whatever. Let's say that caused storms that would have normally have gone offshore and missed all of us are now hitting Long Island and the city. That would explain how you can still get a decent amount of snow in a milder winter. So basically what I'm saying is that the storms that would have been way offshore are now hitting LI and the storms that would have been hitting you guys hard have gone even further to the west. Add to all that the fact that the extreme positive anomalies that used to only reside in the Arctic are now making it into the northern part of the US (for example, look at how mild the winter has been in places like Minneapolis, Chicago and Burlington, VT.) Im sure warmer SSTs are playing a factor. You just don't see storms ride the coast anymore. Its almost like once they hit the latitude of ACY they hit a brick wall and jut E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, snywx said: Im sure warmer SSTs are playing a factor. You just don't see storms ride the coast anymore. Its almost like once they hit the latitude of ACY they hit a brick wall and jut E Yeah, I wouldn't mind seeing that change for a few storms because eastern LI has gotten a lot more snow than us. Our "big" winters compared to the rest of the subforum were 2002-03 and last year (it wasn't "big" but we got more than other people did.) We didn't really take part in the big winters that the rest of the Island have. That's why I'm rooting for an Islip track lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, snywx said: Im sure warmer SSTs are playing a factor. You just don't see storms ride the coast anymore. Its almost like once they hit the latitude of ACY they hit a brick wall and jut E I was picturing what you just said, and it reminds me of the Gulf Stream jutting to the east once it gets to the latitude of ACY. It could be that something different is going on with it to cause that to happen because what you just described matches the Gulf Stream to a tee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Paragon said: Well, if you read Kocin's book, it used to happen a lot more in the past- those are just the more noteworthy ones. Probably another sign of CC. Yeah, I mean... I flip through my KU copy once in a while and struggle to find evidence that storms used to be bigger/colder/whatever. I think a lot of the recent monster storms have occurred in relatively progressive patterns where the duration doesn't support big totals unless you're under one of the nuclear bands. The mystical KU storms of yore often had strong blocking to work with so they stalled for days and did cute loops and things, giving bands a chance to actually pivot and spread the goods more equitably. When you look at the old storm tracks compared with snow maps, the rule has pretty much always been the same: "benchmark" storms strongly favor eastern New England. March 1960 featured a 960 mb low over the benchmark with 25"+ around ORH and like 8" at POU, which is exactly the kind of result you'd expect today. Out of the 30 or so case storms, really only a handful were very good in interior NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 With all of this fresh snow on the ground, wonder how cold we'll get this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Yeah, I mean... I flip through my KU copy once in a while and struggle to find evidence that storms used to be bigger/colder/whatever. I think a lot of the recent monster storms have occurred in relatively progressive patterns where the duration doesn't support big totals unless you're under one of the nuclear bands. The mystical KU storms of yore often had strong blocking to work with so they stalled for days and did cute loops and things, giving bands a chance to actually pivot and spread the goods more equitably. When you look at the old storm tracks compared with snow maps, the rule has pretty much always been the same: "benchmark" storms strongly favor eastern New England. March 1960 featured a 960 mb low over the benchmark with 25"+ around ORH and like 8" at POU, which is exactly the kind of result you'd expect today. Out of the 30 or so case storms, really only a handful were very good in interior NY. Right, and those strong blocks have become more rare. The storms in the Kocin book that I'm talking about were hybrid Miller B's with overrunning that spread snow from west to east with the primary and then south to north with the secondary. We have examples of storms with heavy snow and temperatures in the single digits or even near 0- which doesn't seem to happen anymore. It seems like the storm's moisture makes it partway into cold air and then shunts east. An example of a big snowstorm with temps near 0 is Jan 1857. And like you said, snowstorms of over 24 hours length seemed to be much more common too. Benchmark tracks don't jackpot my area either- I like a track between ISP and MTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 My unsubstantiated weenie guess is that the GFS stays the course for the most part or even a tick west. Continues to trend away from a clean PV phase but in return the southern wave gets held back a little and heights are higher downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 16 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: My unsubstantiated weenie guess is that the GFS stays the course for the most part or even a tick west. Continues to trend away from a clean PV phase but in return the southern wave gets held back a little and heights are higher downstream. NEPA may finally get their long overdue storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, snywx said: NEPA may finally get their long overdue storm. This is why you need to have two houses lol. I might be headed to my Poconos house for this one. This is the thing, we did extremely well in the Jan 2016 Blizzard in E PA too. But I don't know about the extreme NE corner of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Paragon said: This is why you need to have two houses lol. I might be headed to my Poconos house for this one. This is the thing, we did extremely well in the Jan 2016 Blizzard in E PA too. But I don't know about the extreme NE corner of PA. Im 10 mins east of NEPA.. Flurries here from that "blizzard" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Just now, snywx said: Im 10 mins west of NEPA lol.. Flurries here from that "blizzard" lol Oh god lol. Check out Albrightsville. Basically I go west on I-80 and then south on 903 for about 30 minutes. I think being that far south of I-80 is what helped me lol. I'm just one county north of Allentown where they got over 30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Looks like a good 4-5 inches here in Poughkeepsie / Pleasant-valley border. Quite satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 56.1 YTD.. could hit 70" this year if things pan out next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 42 minutes ago, Paragon said: Oh god lol. Check out Albrightsville. Basically I go west on I-80 and then south on 903 for about 30 minutes. I think being that far south of I-80 is what helped me lol. I'm just one county north of Allentown where they got over 30" Allentown is worlds apart from areas like Milford or Matamoras. I don't even think Allentown averages 40" lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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