rgwp96 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Interesting, maybe we will get in on some frozen precip then. Here's a snippet of our WWA Text. 0znam has us below 32 almost the entire event , a 6 hr period of almost all snow all levels below 32 except one at .03 above . So close to a snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, rgwp96 said: 0znam has us below 32 almost the entire event , a 6 hr period of almost all snow all levels below 32 except one at .03 above . So close to a snow event Are you thinking a sleet profile or freezing rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Animal said: Are you thinking a sleet profile or freezing rain... Those 6 hrs would be sleet but heavy rates could be snow (again this is for my area so I'm sure u would be closer to all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, rgwp96 said: Those 6 hrs would be sleet but heavy rates could be snow (again this is for my area so I'm sure u would be closer to all snow awsome!! wait and look out your front door weather. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 37 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: So a few things to look at for snow growth tomorrow. This NAM sounding shows reasonably strong lift and a nicely saturated column up to around 450 mb... the brunt of the negative omega intersects the DGZ, but it's a narrow layer, maybe 50 mb deep. There will be dendrites growing but you can also see how deep the vertical ascent is, extending through the bottom 5km of the atmosphere, most of which will be warmer than -10C. This means that other flake habits will be growing in addition to dendrites, likely needles and columns. Lift through a 0 to -10C layer also means there will be a copious supply of supercooled water droplets floating around, which will then stick to the descending flakes as rime. Given that this layer is something like 3 km deep, significant riming is a good bet. That said, aggregation is favored near the freezing mark, so places where the column approaches 0C will be where snowflakes are clumping together. (As a side note, it's usually ok if your sounding creeps above freezing just a little... elevated warm layer temperature and depth have an almost proportional relationship, so a warm tongue up to +1C will very rarely be deep enough to melt snowflakes.) Needles in particular like to interlock, raising ratios in the process. That's part of why people speak fondly of isothermal snowfalls. One additional factor is that winds in the low levels will be relatively strong, which can mechanically shatter the more delicate flakes and lead to denser snow. Excellent write up. We could see all graupel here tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Excellent write up. We could see all graupel here tomorrow. yea..this storm favors his area. Icebox of the portal will get my call 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 46 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: So a few things to look at for snow growth tomorrow. This NAM sounding shows reasonably strong lift and a nicely saturated column up to around 450 mb... the brunt of the negative omega intersects the DGZ, but it's a narrow layer, maybe 50 mb deep. There will be dendrites growing but you can also see how deep the vertical ascent is, extending through the bottom 5km of the atmosphere, most of which will be warmer than -10C. This means that other flake habits will be growing in addition to dendrites, likely needles and columns. Lift through a 0 to -10C layer also means there will be a copious supply of supercooled water droplets floating around, which will then stick to the descending flakes as rime. Given that this layer is something like 3 km deep, significant riming is a good bet. That said, aggregation is favored near the freezing mark, so places where the column approaches 0C will be where snowflakes are clumping together. (As a side note, it's usually ok if your sounding creeps above freezing just a little... elevated warm layer temperature and depth have an almost proportional relationship, so a warm tongue up to +1C will very rarely be deep enough to melt snowflakes.) Needles in particular like to interlock, raising ratios in the process. That's part of why people speak fondly of isothermal snowfalls. One additional factor is that winds in the low levels will be relatively strong, which can mechanically shatter the more delicate flakes and lead to denser snow. Down to 35.4f here. Here's to hoping for positive surprise. thanks. That's great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 850mb temperatures 925mb temperatures We want both of these temperatures to be below freezing in order for it to snow if I am not mistaken. critical thickness (0c line is very important) So far, some in the forum have already met the criteria. Will be watching these maps closely as the night progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 14 minutes ago, Animal said: yea..this storm favors his area. Icebox of the portal will get my call 10 inches. 33/27 with some breaks in the cloud cover. Let's see if we could cool off a few more degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 I am just going to say it. I feel the local NWS office should issue a warning for tomorrow for my county. Most models indicate over 0.75 of qpf. It should be all frozen.....if its sleet or ice..roads will be rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 45 minutes ago, rgwp96 said: 0znam has us below 32 almost the entire event , a 6 hr period of almost all snow all levels below 32 except one at .03 above . So close to a snow event Incredible how this keeps trending colder and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Photo from the Thursday storm. Someone in this portal will be doing this tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 34.7f here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 hour ago, nesussxwx said: 850mb temperatures 925mb temperatures We want both of these temperatures to be below freezing in order for it to snow if I am not mistaken. critical thickness (0c line is very important) So far, some in the forum have already met the criteria. Will be watching these maps closely as the night progresses. According to those I'm there, the third one is borderline but it shows exactly what I was talking about earlier with the dip/twist down the east side of the crest. Surface is at 34 here though but it won't take more than a few flakes to bring the cold down. 51 minutes ago, Animal said: Photo from the Thursday storm. Someone in this portal will be doing this tomorrow night. Not me man, old skool here. Shovel FTW I still can't convince myself to drop $1k on a blower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, gravitylover said: According to those I'm there, the third one is borderline but it shows exactly what I was talking about earlier with the dip/twist down the east side of the crest. Surface is at 34 here though but it won't take more than a few flakes to bring the cold down. Not me man, old skool here. Shovel FTW I still can't convince myself to drop $1k on a blower. Ur insane....I have a 100'x20' driveway... I'd literally die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Mine isn't huge sq footage @ 80x8 and ~ 15 for the lower 30 feet, it's the house on one side and stone wall on the other that make it a pita. Towards the door it opens up a bit but is bordered by a hill and 4' wall on the uphill side. All of the snow has to be either lifted or pushed and lifted and like most of us the plow pile has to be pulled back and lifted. It keeps me outside during storms and it's one of the few lifting exercises I do, I'm allergic to gyms . Heheh you should've seen me 24 years ago in Tahoe out there with a shovel for 15 hours at a time Hey, how's your ankle injury coming along? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 26 minutes ago, gravitylover said: According to those I'm there, the third one is borderline but it shows exactly what I was talking about earlier with the dip/twist down the east side of the crest. Surface is at 34 here though but it won't take more than a few flakes to bring the cold down. Not me man, old skool here. Shovel FTW I still can't convince myself to drop $1k on a blower. I bought this beast for around $770 delivered. called home depot and they took off $100 off the price if my memory is correct. I get too much snow typically to shovel.:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 A friend of mine has a nice two stage machine and of course a few days before the last storm he managed to break the chute disabling the thing. He doesn't have a shovel anymore so he couldn't get out of the driveway for two days until he was able to convince a neighborhood kid to blow a strip for him. I watch my neighbors argue with theirs sometimes and I just can't picture myself going through it. Shovels always work, it's frustrating sometimes and exhausting always but my inner masochist digs it (pun intended ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 7 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Incredible how this keeps trending colder and colder. 6z runs warmed a bit aloft , now def looking like a lot of sleet and zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 6 hours ago, gravitylover said: A friend of mine has a nice two stage machine and of course a few days before the last storm he managed to break the chute disabling the thing. He doesn't have a shovel anymore so he couldn't get out of the driveway for two days until he was able to convince a neighborhood kid to blow a strip for him. I watch my neighbors argue with theirs sometimes and I just can't picture myself going through it. Shovels always work, it's frustrating sometimes and exhausting always but my inner masochist digs it (pun intended ). How did he not have a shovel at all? He snowblows 2"of snow? I never understood that, you see guys snowblowing a small amount of snow that appears would be quicker to just shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 50 minutes ago, rgwp96 said: 6z runs warmed a bit aloft , now def looking like a lot of sleet and zr Yup....still early in the event...but looking like epic failures for the euro and short range models printing out 6 plus in my area. freezing rain currently on my street. it looks as if I did get a trace of snow or snow grains when it started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Sleet banging on my window just woke me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Snow now mixing in with the sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 At least for now, have transitioned to giant flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Started as sleet here and flipped to snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 32.4f here. Coating of freezing rain outside. Going out in search of flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Flake size continues to improve, a beautiful snowfall at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 25*, all snow SN/SN+, E wind but very light. Gonna be some nice snowbanks in the driveway by the time this is over. Yeah Rob I never understood the 1" blowers either but they're out there. He has a shovel now though because his new chute won't be in until Tuesday so he had to get one yesterday. I mean, how can you have a teenage son and no shovel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 15 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Flake size continues to improve, a beautiful snowfall at the moment. Yea snow Growth continues to improve, very nice flake size her ATM.. coming down good... Albany alluded to possible 12-15:1 ratios for a while till we hit the afternoon, then dropping back to 8-10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, gravitylover said: I mean, how can you have a teenage son and no shovel Helicopter parents protecting their cupcake kid it sounds like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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