IrishRob17 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 7 hours ago, hudsonvalley21 said: True story, something very similar actually happened to me during my OBX '14 trip. A friend of mine got confused and opened the door to my bedroom while I was changing out of my swim trunks. She's a lesbian and all she said afterward was "I don't know how you guys walk around with those things". LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Wow, so WSW are now up for Dutchess and Ulster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 28 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Wow, so WSW are now up for Dutchess and Ulster! congrats. Albany is honking hard for a big event it seems. Would stink to live across the street in Orange or Putnam County NY. Just a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 I need some cold models runs today to get my house in the snow game. Don't really want more sleet!!! The prior sleet storm was brutal. Still have a few inches of it under the recent snow dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 16 minutes ago, Animal said: congrats. Albany is honking hard for a big event it seems. Would stink to live across the street in Orange or Putnam County NY. Just a WWA. Gonna be a tight N-S gradient with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 19 minutes ago, Animal said: congrats. Albany is honking hard for a big event it seems. Would stink to live across the street in Orange or Putnam County NY. Just a WWA. I'm pretty much used to it by now. 6 minutes ago, Animal said: I need some cold models runs today to get my house in the snow game. Don't really want more sleet!!! The prior sleet storm was brutal. Still have a few inches of it under the recent snow dump. I actually want sleet. It packs in nice and tight and creates a wonderful crust to ride a fat bike on. My favorite part of winter around here has become when Krusty the Klown comes to town. I can't stand shoveling it but, for me, the flip side pretty well outweighs the rotten side now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Yea, of old man winter is throwing ya sleet you have to make lemonade out of it...or something like that, sleet helps to solidify the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Yea, of old man winter is throwing ya sleet you have to make lemonade out of it...or something like that, sleet helps to solidify the snowpack. yea..I was just pondering the that myself. Sorta the perfect winter sandwich. I have a solid sleet base on the ground, heavy snow pack on top. Possible adding another sleet top. **Did not like the 12Z NAM. I need some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 I have just under 10" at my stake, I had a little crusty sleet there before the snow the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Unfortunately even if we get a nice sleet cap here this stuff is going to rot away very quickly because the ground underneath is still wet from all the rain last week. I'm not quite down to grass poking through yet but it's close. There is definitely less than 4" in my front yard and if you step on the snow you actually sink in and hear that squish sound from the mud below. I'm still rooting for a sleet cap though just because I need to go out and play in the woods and that's the only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 12z GFS was solid for the liquid QPF output. Any of the posters up near the catskills north I 84 may get a very nice dump. I am riding the snowiest model for this storm. Apparently the ARW model is my selection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 WWA up here. 1-2" of sleet/snow/ice. Latitude will hurt me.. about 14 miles south of NY border. Gradient between snow and mixed precip will be sharp. Expecting a mainly sleet/ice storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 21 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: WWA up here. 1-2" of sleet/snow/ice. Latitude will hurt me.. about 14 miles south of NY border. Gradient between snow and mixed precip will be sharp. Expecting a mainly sleet/ice storm here. the numbers should get raised. Expect a warning to be issued for our county due to the ice factor etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 32 minutes ago, Animal said: the numbers should get raised. Expect a warning to be issued for our county due to the ice factor etc. updated WWA maybe an inch tomorrow and 1-2 tomorrow night mostly freezing rain & sleet is the call. new AFD is sorta a buzz kill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Wet Snow Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 East of river so close this run to getting into some coastal bands early Monday morning. That could pad some totals east of river. Sometimes those outer bands are modeled to Far East. We'll see if that's anything more than scattered showers in dutchess Putnam westchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 26 minutes ago, Heavy Wet Snow said: East of river so close this run to getting into some coastal bands early Monday morning. That could pad some totals east of river. Sometimes those outer bands are modeled to Far East. We'll see if that's anything more than scattered showers in dutchess Putnam westchester I'm not really too interested in the coastal storm, honestly... Miller Bs are terrible at our longitude, "wraparound" snows almost always underperform, and, at least imby, I'll likely be seeing warning criteria snows so I won't regret missing out on the bomb. I will say that Monday could get pretty interesting in terms of blowing and drifting, especially if it's not a complete paste job. The 4km NAM has some areas of 35-45 kt gusts which would be quite breezy indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 36 minutes ago, Animal said: updated WWA maybe an inch tomorrow and 1-2 tomorrow night mostly freezing rain & sleet is the call. new AFD is sorta a buzz kill. Yeah, I think Morris stays almost all rain. Frozen mixed in maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Wet Snow Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: I'm not really too interested in the coastal storm, honestly... Miller Bs are terrible at our longitude, "wraparound" snows almost always underperform, and, at least imby, I'll likely be seeing warning criteria snows so I won't regret missing out on the bomb. I will say that Monday could get pretty interesting in terms of blowing and drifting, especially if it's not a complete paste job. The 4km NAM has some areas of 35-45 kt gusts which would be quite breezy indeed. Ya I'm pretty south, I'm in northern westchester so I think I have mixing problems which will limit me during the initial surge. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Yeah, I think Morris stays almost all rain. Frozen mixed in maybe. I don't know about all of morris staying all rain. Ex - Oak Ridge & Jefferson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Just now, Animal said: I don't know about all of morris staying all rain. Ex - Oak Ridge & Jefferson The higher spots, like the ones you mentioned, definitely have the best shot at seeing something frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Dew points are crashing, down to 17, temp fell from 42-40 in the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: Dew points are crashing, down to 17, temp fell from 42-40 in the last hour. 39.6 here down from a high of 42.4. This is going to be nail bitingly close between sleet and snow, especially down here in Orange. You seem to have a little wiggle room up in Dutchess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 20 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: 39.6 here down from a high of 42.4. This is going to be nail bitingly close between sleet and snow, especially down here in Orange. You seem to have a little wiggle room up in Dutchess. Let's hope for a another tick south so that you can wiggle some more too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 hour ago, JerseyWx said: Yeah, I think Morris stays almost all rain. Frozen mixed in maybe. Soundings show surface below freezing , either sleet or freezing rain for awhile . Sounding close to snow for a few hrs as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 33 minutes ago, rgwp96 said: Soundings show surface below freezing , either sleet or freezing rain for awhile . Sounding close to snow for a few hrs as well Interesting, maybe we will get in on some frozen precip then. Here's a snippet of our WWA Text. Quote ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...Portions of the Lehigh Valley and adjacent northwest New Jersey. * SLEET ACCUMULATIONS..Less than one inch. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...around a tenth of an inch. * TIMING...Precipitation is expected to begin late tonight. Temperatures may be warm enough for the precipitation to begin as rain, but they are expected to cool below freezing by sunrise on Sunday. A mixture of freezing rain and sleet is expected during the day on Sunday. Precipitation may transition back to rain by the afternoon before tapering off during the early evening hours. * IMPACTS...Ice and sleet accumulations will create treacherous driving conditions. The weight of the ice and snow on tree limbs and power lines could produce isolated outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 My p&c says snow/sleet then sleet/rain. Ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, gravitylover said: My p&c says snow/sleet then sleet/rain. Ugly. Point and clicks are awful... never use them... computer generated mumbo jumbo lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Oh I know just posting what it says. I'm still figuring ~4" unless the cold air drain kicks in sooner. CAD doesn't usually give us great totals here but we do usually see a fair bit of sleet mix in if the wind turns to out of the east for any length of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Down to 35.4f here. Here's to hoping for positive surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 So a few things to look at for snow growth tomorrow. This NAM sounding shows reasonably strong lift and a nicely saturated column up to around 450 mb... the brunt of the negative omega intersects the DGZ, but it's a narrow layer, maybe 50 mb deep. There will be dendrites growing but you can also see how deep the vertical ascent is, extending through the bottom 5km of the atmosphere, most of which will be warmer than -10C. This means that other flake habits will be growing in addition to dendrites, likely needles and columns. Lift through a 0 to -10C layer also means there will be a copious supply of supercooled water droplets floating around, which will then stick to the descending flakes as rime. Given that this layer is something like 3 km deep, significant riming is a good bet. That said, aggregation is favored near the freezing mark, so places where the column approaches 0C will be where snowflakes are clumping together. (As a side note, it's usually ok if your sounding creeps above freezing just a little... elevated warm layer temperature and depth have an almost proportional relationship, so a warm tongue up to +1C will very rarely be deep enough to melt snowflakes.) Needles in particular like to interlock, raising ratios in the process. That's part of why people speak fondly of isothermal snowfalls. One additional factor is that winds in the low levels will be relatively strong, which can mechanically shatter the more delicate flakes and lead to denser snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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