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Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley First Half 2017


xram

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Snippet from Upton..

Regarding PCPN, with the low level jet and mid-level frontogenetic
forcing pushing in from the south, expecting rain to be heavy at
times. The main question is how much dynamic cooling we get aloft,
having implications for PCPN type for interior sections, especially
the NW zones. Models at least agree that below the warm nose at 850-
750mb, temps above the surface start out at -5C to -6C before
warming, which is cold enough to turn rain aloft to sleet. What is
more uncertain is the warmest temperature that will occur in the
warm nose. The warm nose should warm up as the night wears on,
however GFS/ECMWF continue to be colder than NAM/RAP/HRRR regarding
max warm nose temp. Went with a compromise between the 2 camps, with
the current forecast trending a little colder than the previous.
Should the heavy precipitation fall as snow for a longer period of
time, snowfall totals would be higher than currently forecast, and
vice versa if more as rain. Right now, those locations under a
winter weather advisory are forecast to see 2 to 4 inches of snow
and sleet. Have trimmed back with freezing rain potential, but
perhaps a light coating of ice possible over the higher elevations
of Orange County.
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