UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Dat RGEM tho....... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Wayyyyyy colder RGEM run... some of us see acc snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Dat RGEM tho....... lol Much colder.. I really don't know what to expect tonight lol Expect winter weather thats pretty much it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Wayyyyyy colder RGEM run... some of us see acc snows Gives me a ton of sleet with a couple inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 12z 18z and the RGEM on tidbits does NOT count sleet as snow FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Man id love for this to verify... less than .1" of rain for me.. all frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Ive heard about 5 generators being tested on my street in the last hour lol.. I guess everyone is starting to understand the potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 33F now with rain, changeover is imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 850s are starting to cool nicely.. As of 4pm, The only issue is the 750-800mb layer. Would be nice if we can overcome it otherwise its a sleetfest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 If the NAM is right we don't see one flake later lol. 750-800mb is 4-5c. Crazy warm Sleet, sleet, sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Sleet just started here. Temp.36 First precip today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Rain won't go away here. Sleet mixing in however the past 30 mins. Temp is dropping steadily, 33/32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Sleetfest here.. Occasional flake mixing in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Upton has increased the potential for up here in their latest update... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Snippet from Upton.. Regarding PCPN, with the low level jet and mid-level frontogenetic forcing pushing in from the south, expecting rain to be heavy at times. The main question is how much dynamic cooling we get aloft, having implications for PCPN type for interior sections, especially the NW zones. Models at least agree that below the warm nose at 850- 750mb, temps above the surface start out at -5C to -6C before warming, which is cold enough to turn rain aloft to sleet. What is more uncertain is the warmest temperature that will occur in the warm nose. The warm nose should warm up as the night wears on, however GFS/ECMWF continue to be colder than NAM/RAP/HRRR regarding max warm nose temp. Went with a compromise between the 2 camps, with the current forecast trending a little colder than the previous. Should the heavy precipitation fall as snow for a longer period of time, snowfall totals would be higher than currently forecast, and vice versa if more as rain. Right now, those locations under a winter weather advisory are forecast to see 2 to 4 inches of snow and sleet. Have trimmed back with freezing rain potential, but perhaps a light coating of ice possible over the higher elevations of Orange County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 43 minutes ago, snywx said: Upton has increased the potential for up here in their latest update... I'm really waiting to get under heavy stuff to see if we can flip to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Sleet has finally arrived. 32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Below freezing here.. Currently 31.6° w/ sleet All surfaces covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Sleet continues here, 31 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: Sleet has finally arrived. 32F. Surfaces covered easily, snow/sleet mix just to my north in Vernon. Think I see flakes soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Incoming... Should be all frozen. Can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Its becoming quite obvious that the NAM may have been too warm in the mid levels.. First map is the 18z NAM for 850 temps at 00z. Second is actual obs at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Yeah im not pure sleet but im enough sleet to make driving interesting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 New City / Rockland here 32 degrees driveway and and deck are a sheet of ice ,2 cars incased in a shell of ice ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Absolutely pounding sleet here for the moment... when the wind picks up it's like being sandblasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 6 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Absolutely pounding sleet here for the moment... when the wind picks up it's like being sandblasted Already happening here... hurt to walk the dogs, they wanted no part of it... 18mph sustained now. With +20 gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Already happening here... hurt to walk the dogs, they wanted no part of it... 18mph sustained now. With +20 gusts Mine ran inside and looked at me like I had something hanging from my head lol. Wind gust has been increasing over the past hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Moderate to heavy sleet here. Definitely more than what I predicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Rain to sleet line in rt 23 & 515 in nw nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 What are short range model trends for overnight as far as warmer or colder? Hoping the sleet can change to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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