Animal Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 16 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Not liking the 0z Nam Looked cold to my eyes. frozen precipitation down near Philly and even NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 "even east" ? East of Hudson is expected to be warmer, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, Animal said: Looked cold to my eyes. frozen precipitation down near Philly and even NYC. 850s are all torched on 00z Nam until precip starts pulling out... first time nams been this warm up here at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 8 minutes ago, Animal said: Looked cold to my eyes. frozen precipitation down near Philly and even NYC. It's the warmest NAM run of the day. Look aloft (850mb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: It's the warmest NAM run of the day. Look aloft (850mb) Warmest run since this storms been on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Warmest run since this storms been on the nam Well yea that too. Verbatim it's very warm at 850mb if that's correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Yea just checked... Nam drastically reduces frozen precip around Hudson valley, even 4k and 3knam.. hopefully a 1 run hiccup, but in all honesty this is gonna be nowcast anyway, such a thread the needle event, based off highly unpredictable dynamics that models often do poorly with... precip rates/CAD etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 1 hour ago, DRVTS said: Hey Gravity I work in Mahopac. Do you have a business in Mahopac? Sort of, I work from home. I'm a sales rep for a bunch of bike, parts and accessory companies so I have my office upstairs and all of the samples are downstairs. Where do you work and I see you live at 850' in Carmel but where? We should meet sometime. Well, the wind is coming up a bit already which is pretty cool. Truck is packed and I think I'm set for a road trip to southwestern NH, should be interesting to say the least. Don't know if I'll make it all the way home tomorrow night if things are more white than wet up there but it will certainly be entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 35 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Yea just checked... Nam drastically reduces frozen precip around Hudson valley, even 4k and 3knam.. hopefully a 1 run hiccup, but in all honesty this is gonna be nowcast anyway, such a thread the needle event, based off highly unpredictable dynamics that models often do poorly with... precip rates/CAD etc As per 0z nam Looks like our best shot at some legit frozen precip is after midnight tomorrow. It did warm up in the mid levels but the heaviest precip Also doesn't get into our area till 1am or so. Before that best dynamics stay to our SW. The best chances of anything frozen remains W of the Hudson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Well, this should be mostly or entirely rain imby... nothing I haven't known all week. Hopefully the rain and wind perform well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 RGEM is still a beast of all frozen sleetfest north and west of 84/Hudson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 RGEM actually looks much cooler at quick glance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 14 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Well, this should be mostly or entirely rain imby... nothing I haven't known all week. Hopefully the rain and wind perform well. I think this is 80% frozen for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 GFS is really warm... 700 and 850 torch... 850 is almost entirely above 0c... amazing how different meso models are than GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 About 5 miles east of Poughkeepsie, expecting mostly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Gfs GFS shows more snow than sleet... personally I think it's out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I think I'm done with models till HRRR tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Gfs GFS shows more snow than sleet... personally I think it's out to lunch Was wondering how it had higher accums than NAM and CMC with only about 1 or 2 hours of frozen...guess the snow explains it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 We're seeing a dynamic storm unfold. And model mahem, scrambling....time for rest and nowcast AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 36 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: I think this is 80% frozen for you. It's dead, Jim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Roller coaster ride for sure.. I would toss the GFS. RGEM/GGEM and for the most part the NAM is still plenty cold. Meanwhile looks like upton has no idea what to expect lol. Here is my p/c for the next 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Man the euro shows 6"+ from Middletown north westward. Sullivan is looking at double digit snows if it's correct. And that's on top of the sleet. Should be interesting to track this Sucka tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 36.0 a 3.2 degree drop since midnight. My location is central (North/south orientation), eastern Orange County at elevation 600 feet so I expect to be sitting on the border of frozen precip through most of this. I pretty much have no idea what I'm in store for. A nowcast if ever there was one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: 36.0 a 3.2 degree drop since midnight. My location is central (North/south orientation), eastern Orange County at elevation 600 feet so I expect to be sitting on the border of frozen precip through most of this. I pretty much have no idea what I'm in store for. A nowcast if ever there was one. Gonna be a nowcast event for us up here.. Im expecting a ton of sleet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 21 minutes ago, snywx said: Gonna be a nowcast event for us up here.. Im expecting a ton of sleet here. RGEM and Nam are insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Shows what kind of winter this is so far when even a sleet in the forecast has my interest. Enjoy the snow whoever gets it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 3 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: RGEM and Nam are insane Any love for Poughkeepsie or does our snow hole live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, White Gorilla said: Any love for Poughkeepsie or does our snow hole live? Honestly... I'm not sure how well anyone east of Hudson does, I'm optimistic that CAD overperforms especially at 700-850mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 18z NAM is intense.. 4am tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 32 degress with moderate sleet here for the past hour since it begun. Binghamton has since dropped the watch this am for my area, and replaced it with an advisory for 3 to 5 inches of snow, sleet and even freezing rain. Which is far more reasonable imo. That 5 to 10 inch wsw, sure did seem skeptical to me. Not until you head into Central NY and far western portions of Nepa in the cwa, did they raise flags for a warning, and even there they lowered amounts from earlier thinking. Tricky forecast, but seems very reasonable on their end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.