snywx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 0z NAM.. MGJ -- @ hr 45 warm layer is between 750-825. From 825mb down its below 0, 2m is 32.7°.. The warm layer is between 1-3c, precip during this 3hr period is 0.45" @ hr 48 warm layer is between 750-775. from 775mb down its below 0, 2m is 32.8° .. The warm layer is extremely shallow and only 0.9c, precip during this 3 hr period is .63" ( most likely snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, snywx said: 0z NAM.. MGJ -- @ hr 45 warm layer is between 750-825. From 825mb down its below 0, 2m is 32.7°.. The warm layer is between 1-3c, precip during this 3hr period is 0.45" @ hr 48 warm layer is between 750-775. from 775mb down its below 0, 2m is 32.8° .. The warm layer is extremely shallow and only 0.9c, precip during this 3 hr period is .63" ( most likely snow) Clumping parachutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 40 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said: Clumping parachutes. Anyone under some intense banding may go isothermal and just dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I hope to dump in the morning but for now get me another brewski Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 9 hours ago, snywx said: Anyone under some intense banding may go isothermal and just dump Nam says you may just do that... I'd really like to be higher elevation western Ulster/Sullivan for this one, someone's getting a foot a paste, I known it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 12z Nam says some of us up here never see a drop of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 12z Nam says some of us up here never see a drop of rain It will be interesting to watch this unfold. We'll see where the low tracks and radar trends down south today. Going to be an active day across northern Fl and southern Ga. Upton as an inch or two of sleet tomorrow for the county, so they are coming on board as to the P type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 apparently the 12Z GFS is showing some snow now in the NW zones. Saw a map that has a nice weenie total over my town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 latest news from Mt Holly NWS this morning. Lots of uncertainty. Wintry Precipitation... An overwhelming majority of models have trended colder with boundary-layer temperatures on Monday and Monday night. This looks to be in part due to the slower arrival of the precipitation from the low to our southwest, which would allow extra time for high pressure to build in from eastern Canada and thus for the low-level cold air to drain southward into northeastern PA and northwestern NJ. Accordingly, there is more of a concern for wintry precip from I-80 northward. Forecast soundings and partial thickness nomograms indicate the predominate ptype would be freezing rain Monday- Monday night. For now, icing look to be primarily confined to the higher ridges (elevations above 1000 ft) of Carbon, Monroe and Sussex (NJ) counties. If thermal profiles trend even colder, then sleet may cut down on icing from freezing rain across the far north. Regardless, sleet will mix in at times when the precip intensity picks up. A brief changeover to wet snow is also possible in the Poconos Monday afternoon-evening if a band of heavier precip makes it this far northwest and sufficiently dynamically cools the column. Forecast snow/sleet accumulations are less than 1 at elevations above 1000 ft along the I-80 corridor and 1-2 in the southern Poconos for ridges above 1700 ft in elevation. These amounts are conservative due to the high uncertainty of a changeover to snow and near-freezing surface temperatures that are marginally supportive of accumulations. Conversely, went higher with ice accumulations at the higher elevations north of I-80. These icing amounts were calculated using the FRAM model. With freezing rain likely to not begin until around or just after sunrise Monday morning, opted to hold off on any winter headlines at this point so the day shift can re-evaluate the next cycle of guidance. The primary surface low over the central Appalachians will eventually transfer it`s energy to the coast Monday afternoon and night. 00Z models have trended stronger with the coastal low (both at the surface and aloft), resulting in a well-defined deformation band on the backside of the low center on Tuesday. Precip may transition to snow or sleet before ending Tuesday afternoon across NE PA/NW NJ as winds turn out of the NW and colder air wraps around the backside of low. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 12z NAM.. MGJ-- From hr 36 - 42 the warm layer is somewhat shallow (750mb-800mb) ranging 0.2c-2.6c. From 800mb down its below 0c. Total precip during this period is 1.16". W of this location runs a higher chance of seeing SN while E runs a lower chance. Surface temps throughout this period is 32.8° This is no doubt a sleet profile but I wouldn't doubt during heavier burst that snow mixes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 26 minutes ago, snywx said: 12z NAM.. MGJ-- From hr 36 - 42 the warm layer is somewhat shallow (750mb-800mb) ranging 0.2c-2.6c. From 800mb down its below 0c. Total precip during this period is 1.16". W of this location runs a higher chance of seeing SN while E runs a lower chance. Surface temps throughout this period is 32.8° This is no doubt a sleet profile but I wouldn't doubt during heavier burst that snow mixes in. Cads also usually well under modeled, wouldn't shocked if craigsmore and places like that etc, paste for hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 50 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Cads also usually well under modeled, wouldn't shocked if craigsmore and places like that etc, paste for hours At work and no access.. Reading that the euro is colder. How's it look for our hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 This would be a snow sounding if not for the BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Nam much cooler at onset...starts as snow for many around and north of 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I'd wanna be north if 84 and west of the Hudson for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just got a watch for 3 to 5 mt holly nws concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Winter Storm Watches are up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: Winter Storm Watches are up here. 8 minutes ago, Animal said: Just got a watch for 3 to 5 mt holly nws concerned Been saying it for days now... but was told the nam is just being the nam and we're all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Orange County gets an advisory from Upton... 1-3" of snow/sleet... 3-6" higher elevations Albany still late to the party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 24 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Orange County gets an advisory from Upton... 1-3" of snow/sleet... 3-6" higher elevations Albany still late to the party yea..upton used 750 feet or above to get slammed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, Animal said: yea..upton used 750 feet or above to get slammed lol I'm loosing respect for upton as it is.. like my buddy said, after not posting snowfall totals last storm and busting poorly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 The NAM looks mostly frozen up here. Starts as sleet, then the mid-levels go isothermal at 0C during the time of heaviest precip before warming up again toward the end. Could be interesting if things break right, but my expectations are tempered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 33 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Been saying it for days now... but was told the nam is just being the nam and we're all rain I'm certainly guilty of saying/thinking that. For my specific area though, I still think this one is more wet than wintry. The wind is what I'm interested in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, JerseyWx said: I'm certainly guilty of saying/thinking that. For my specific area though, I still think this one is more wet than wintry. The wind is what I'm interested in. Im looking at the RGEM print out and all I see is 93'... minus the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Mhm looking at the RGEM print out and all I see is 93'... minus the cold Wow, now that's interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Man, RGEM is wintry! Think it's time to start a obs thread, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 23 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Wow, now that's interesting. Will post maps soon. Sleet gets down into NW Essex County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, nesussxwx said: Man, RGEM is wintry! Think it's time to start a obs thread, folks. Look forward to seeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 minute ago, nesussxwx said: Will post maps soon. Sleet gets down into NW Essex County. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: Man, RGEM is wintry! Think it's time to start a obs thread, folks. They've been just turning storm threads into OBS threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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