UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 3:19 PM, White Gorilla said: What I am thinking too. Expand I think that NW moisture feed will keep pumping till we pivot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 3:18 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I really don't think that dry slot makes it up here with filling Expand On 3/14/2017 at 3:19 PM, White Gorilla said: What I am thinking too. Expand Yeah it kind of looks like I might see that slot but I'm thinking it stops at Mt Beacon/Stormville Mt area so you guys may just lose some intensity but keep accumulating. I went to a sleet/pellet mix a few minutes ago but there's still a lot of snow too and it's all pouring down and piling up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 3:20 PM, Animal said: I am in a dryslot...snowing lightly. Expand snowing is moving in from the west. it has picked up here. lgt-mod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Wet Snow Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Rgem and hrrr still seem to like Hudson valley, maybe the slot will fill in for us down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 3:18 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I really don't think that dry slot makes it up here without filling Expand It's gonna be really difficult with the 700mb low over like Harrisburg (look for the circulation center, not the isohypses): You can easily see the moisture rapidly shutting off in the mid levels... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 The dry slot is close, snow lightening up a good bit, the radar looks like it could fill in quickly here though. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 3:24 PM, Heavy Wet Snow said: Rgem and hrrr still seem to like Hudson valley, maybe the slot will fill in for us down here Expand the lp on the hrrr slows down just off the coastline nj looks like a 2 hour stall. maybe that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northwest NJ Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Channel 7 just reported Animal's report of 14.5 inches in Highland Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Note heavier echos pushing W NW... southern rockland.... if we dry slot I think it will Just be lighter precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Most guidance, possibly excluding hires models, have the heavy stuff winding down by 18z. 20"+ reports popping up in the BGM PNS. Mostly unconfirmed. Not sure the widespread 2-2.5" LE has/will verify. Doubt the ratios were better than 10:1 overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 3:22 PM, nesussxwx said: snowing is moving in from the west. it has picked up here. lgt-mod. Expand hope you are right. Radar does not look all that great. Sorta would a shame if the storm was over by noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Moderate snow here in croton. Small flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Looks like the pivot is underway. Hopefully that nw side pulls back down soon and drives this sleet out of here. It's still snowing pretty hard but the sleet is significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Dry slots filling as it pushes west, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 That band here in western orange county is starting to pivot. Im right on the edge of it. You can clearly see the dry slot in eastern orange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 FWIW, it looks like the 12z GFS has less than .1" LE in NJ after 17z. And only .1-.4 in the HV. I hope it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 3:43 PM, eduggs said: FWIW, it looks like the 12z GFS has less than .1" LE in NJ after 17z. And only a few .1-.4 in the HV. I hope it's wrong. Expand I think some of us are probably within sight of our final totals. A general 15-20" in the valley as we all expected before the models started going ape with 3" QPF and 10"/hr snowfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 3:45 PM, Juliancolton said: I think some of us are probably within sight of our final totals. A general 15-20" in the valley as we all expected before the models started going ape with 3" QPF and 10"/hr snowfall rates. Expand Got my storm in 4 hours. Expected it to snow until 8 pm or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 The storm's not over by any means so any summation is premature, but it's pretty clear the best mid-level forcing ended up well NW. I suspect final total QPF will be in the 1.5 - 2" range with roughly 10:1 ratios. Great storm but ultimately probably slightly less snow than short term guidance indicated. I expect some 25-30" totals in NEPA, SNY, and possibly up towards the Capital District. They will probably end up with similar QPF but better ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 It looks like the Scranton-Wilkes Barre area slightly overperformed and the BGM are significantly overperformed model consensus. NNJ, SENY, and NW CT slightly underperformed. The final CCB band could have a potent stinger, however. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 3:56 PM, eduggs said: It looks like the Scranton-Wilkes Barre area slightly overperformed and the BGM are significantly overperformed model consensus. NNJ, SENY, and NW CT slightly underperformed. The final CCB band could have a potent stinger, however. Fingers crossed. Expand Hope u are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Wet Snow Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 On 3/14/2017 at 3:56 PM, eduggs said: It looks like the Scranton-Wilkes Barre area slightly overperformed and the BGM are significantly overperformed model consensus. NNJ, SENY, and NW CT slightly underperformed. The final CCB band could have a potent stinger, however. Fingers crossed. Expand I know, had 4 inches from 930 to 1030 but that was really the only epic hour of this storm. Had a 50 gust too. Thought it would last longer. Have 12 on ground and I'm dry slotted, very light sleet falling, hoping Rgem and HRR verify which still focus a heavy band over the river in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Heavy sleet now. Fk this stuff is gonna be heavy to move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Still whiteout conditions here at Poughkeepsie /Pleasant-valley border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Man alive, what a great storm though. Some of the truest blizzard conditions I've ever seen... first time I've had to cut a jebwalk short on account of discomfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Around 15" OTG had some pingers mixed in. Caught some of the dryslot. Starting to flip back over to mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 25° w/ lat-mod snow falling 18.5" otg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Going to do the final measure after the last batch clears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 I have fragmented dendrites and ice pellets falling at the same time. Pretty tumultuous things going on overhead atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 My winds are insane, still heavy snow, I'm right on the edge, looks like I'll escape the lighter dry slot...18.0" on the dot... just got in from my 2nd snowblow... idk why I bother, even when it stops snowing the winds gonna bury it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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