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January Obs and Disco


H2O

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10 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That would be reason enough for me to head to Hollywood casino.  Gambling and snow are great mix.

Yeah. But you not gonna see those flurries while you are locked up in the Casino.

I was down in Sterling all day today. Had some pretty decent snow showers roll through a couple of times.

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An interesting disco from LWX regarding Sunday night and Monday morning.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...Snow showers will continue
in the mountains Sunday as the upper level trough axis moves into
the Ohio Valley. Additional accumulation of an inch is expected
along the western slopes of the Allegheny Front through Sunday.
Further east...mostly cloudy conditions and scattered flurries are
expected Sunday. As the trough axis swings through the region late
Sunday night into Monday...snow showers are expected to develop
east of the mtns. A period of snow showers is expected late Sunday
night-Monday morning across the region including the I-95
corridor/Washington and Baltimore metro areas. There is moderate-
high confidence in the timing of snow showers however lower
confidence in coverage. At this time...a dusting to few tenths of
an inch are expected east of the mtns however due to the
uncertainity in coverage especially across NE MD and the
Shenandoah Valley amts will likely be fine tuned. There is a
spread of amounts from model guidance with the minimum potential
snow amts of zero and the potential or maximum snow amts around an
inch. Stay tuned for forecast updates because this will likely
impact the Monday morning commute for the I-95 corridor.
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I posted this in banter but I guess this is the place to discuss short term threats..

I think today will be interesting as we get more into the meso model range. These weak clippers are tricky, and in another winter we probably wouldn't care too much either way. But the potential of an inch is pretty big at this point. This looks like it will affect a pretty small area as well, and that can shift in the short range. Right now I would say southern DE has the best shot at an inch or so. 

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23 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

For the weakling clipper, 3km NAM looks good for the cities and south. 12km looks better for northern burbs. 4km likes southern MD and lower Delmarva.

Take your pick.

12z RGEM looks better than any of the NAMs.

GFS doesn't think it's weakening.

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