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January Obs and Disco


H2O

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
132 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2017


MDZ003>006-501>503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-501-503>508-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-110245-
/O.NEW.KLWX.ZR.Y.0002.170110T2300Z-170111T0600Z/
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-
WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-
NORTHERN VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE-CENTRAL VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE-
HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-
EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-
EASTERN PENDLETON-
132 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2017

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM
THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN A TENTH-INCH.

* TIMING...SPREADING WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 6PM AND 9PM. GRADUALLY
  CHANGING TO RAIN BETWEEN 10PM AND 1AM, INITIALLY EAST OF THE
  BLUE RIDGE AND ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...AND LINGERING THE
  LONGEST IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY.

* IMPACTS...ICE ACCUMULATION ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACE. ROADS AND
  WALKWAYS WILL BE SLIPPERY.

* WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES TOPS UP TO
  30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$

HTS
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This might be the most precipitation I have ever seen on my point and click forecast. Something falling pretty much every day.

Tonight
A chance of freezing rain before 10pm, then rain or freezing rain between 10pm and 1am, then rain likely after 1am. Low around 31. South wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible.
Wednesday
A slight chance of rain before 7am, then a chance of rain after 4pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 45. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Wednesday Night
Rain, mainly between 7pm and 1am. Patchy fog between 10pm and 1am. Low around 39. Southwest wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. South wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Thursday Night
A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. Southwest wind 6 to 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday
A slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday Night
A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday
A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday Night
A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday
A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday Night
A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
M.L.King Day
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48.
Monday Night
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday
A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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Couple of things going for us WRT ice:

  1. Surfaces are cold.  Road temp sensors in Montgomery County are in the low to mid 20s.  We also haven't had much sun today to warm anything up.
  2. Even though temps are near freezing, there is a significant dewpoint depression.  The Td in many locations is in the low teens and single digits.  The extent of the low dews is well to our south as well, so this helps strengthen the CAD.
  3. It's raininy...at night...in January. 
  4. Warm air advection isn't monstrous so we won't see the cold get scoured out in 2 hours.
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