2017 Banter Thread #1

[lilj4425]

11 minutes ago, southernskimmer said:

WHY CAN"T WE EVER JUST GET A STORM WHERE WE GET NAILED AND WE KNOW WE'RE GOING TO GET NAILED BEFOREHAND AND WE AREN'T WORRIED AND EVERYBODY WINS 

Stop yelling at me. 

[southernskimmer]

haha i know i just hope we all get pasted one day

[No snow for you]

Lol my wife just looked at me after than NAM run and said is that thing ever right. I said no but there’s a first time for everything.  

[lilj4425]

I miss Brick Tamland.  

[wncsnow]

What happened to Brick?

[kvegas-wx]

Oh boy, just got back from 2 days in hell (otherwise known as NYC) to dive in here and see all the rational thought about the upcoming event knowing we all learned valuable lessons last year.  Instead we have 44 pages of wailing and gnashing of teeth over a system with no HP cold source and 500 reasons why this will likely turn out to be a nuisance event for a few, a happy snowflake for some and CR for everyone else.  We never learn here do we?

(Cant wait to get my 4" in the triad!  The latest Sref told me so!  Bank it! )

;-)

Good luck folks.  Buddy, I'm heading your way tomorrow so I better see some flakes on the mountain in Stuart!  VA posters need love too!

[Disc]

Just now, kvegas-wx said:

VA posters need love too!

[No snow for you]

Jesus these models better be wrong or the upstate is going to have a lot of problems tomorrow. 

[calculus1]

So, what are the conversations like right now at NWS GSP?  I kind of imagine them going this way, but Isohume is, of course, more than welcome to correct me.

• A: "Should we hoist WWAs for the entire area?"
• B: "Nah, there's no way this is going to happen, right?  I mean, right?  Seriously."
• A: "But how long do we ignore the trends in the models?"
• B: "They're just models.  That's all they are.  Models."
• A: "Agreed, but what if they're right and we don't warn the public?  We'll have tons of people caught off guard."
• B: "Yeah, but what if they're wrong and we do warn the public?  Then, we'll have tons of people with pitchforks demanding their snowfall that never materialized!"

I wouldn't want to be in their shoes.  These guys have a very tough job.  It's similar to refereeing sporting events.  Somebody's always mad at 'em...

[JoshM]

2 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

So, what are the conversations like right now at NWS GSP?  I kind of imagine them going this way, but Isohume is, of course, more than welcome to correct me.

• A: "Should we hoist WWAs for the entire area?"
• B: "Nah, there's no way this is going to happen, right?  I mean, right?  Seriously."
• A: "But how long do we ignore the trends in the models?"
• B: "They're just models.  That's all they are.  Models."
• A: "Agreed, but what if they're right and we don't warn the public?  We'll have tons of people caught off guard."
• B: "Yeah, but what if they're wrong and we do warn the public?  Then, we'll have tons of people with pitchforks demanding their snowfall that never materialized!"

I wouldn't want to be in their shoes.  These guys have a very tough job.  It's similar to refereeing sporting events.  Somebody's always mad at 'em...

They're saying "Leave it to the morning shift, we're going home!"

[DopplerWx]

do most posters just forget lessons learned from years past? have seen this movie before. this time tomorrow the edges of the cliff will be full.

[JoshM]

2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

do most posters just forget lessons learned from years past? have seen this movie before. this time tomorrow the edges of the cliff will be full.

I take the warmest model with the least snow. So I go with the HRRR @ 0.

[Sunv]

When you're watching areas 30 miles to your NW get heavy snow while you get 33 and rain.

Basically how tracking storms feels like in RDU nowadays.

[JoshM]

Usually this time of year the pattern is so crap that Christmas music doesn't seem right. But with snow potential, they actually feel right at home. Maybe that's weird, but thought I'd drop that out.

[franklin NCwx]

Where is brick?

[mackerel_sky]

7 hours ago, No snow for you said:

Jesus these models better be wrong or the upstate is going to have a lot of problems tomorrow. 

Yeah, may need a flood watch

[JacobNC]

The long range forecasts are saying only slightly colder than average temperatures for my trip to Quebec City on January 1. But, it looks like they're going to get a good round of snow storms the rest of this month, and temps to -10F or worse to turn everything to solid ice (hoping for a frozen St Lawrence?). Should be like the North Pole when I get there. I'm really hoping the forecast of only slightly colder than average holds (that would be 10s and 20s during the day), so I don't have to where face coverings outside.

The good news is this means I won't have to be disappointed by Raleigh's winter for the rest of the season.

[Buddy1987]

I’ve got to rant and say I am extremely disappointed in my NWS here in Blacksburg. No one that I have talked to is even remotely aware of this storm. They didn’t even hoist advisories for our area. A lot if not all the models have grossly shifted to the northwest with the qpf field. Always last to the game it seems and it puts people’s lives in jeopardy imo. They have like a half inch of snow forecasted cmon man! 

[landof2rivers]

For the NWS Blacksburg area, is there a snow forecast map available? I see people post GSP snow forecast maps from their local NWS.

[kvegas-wx]

28 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I’ve got to rant and say I am extremely disappointed in my NWS here in Blacksburg. No one that I have talked to is even remotely aware of this storm. They didn’t even hoist advisories for our area. A lot if not all the models have grossly shifted to the northwest with the qpf field. Always last to the game it seems and it puts people’s lives in jeopardy imo. They have like a half inch of snow forecasted cmon man! 

I understand the frustration Buddy and somewhat agree.  But in their defense, until we overcome these warm sfc temps it could snow all day and still be a big nothingburger of a storm.  So they may not feel it necessary for a WSW to be issued.  I think Danville has a WWA at least.  But some commentary on the situation would be nice.

[Buddy1987]

Just now, kvegas-wx said:

I understand the frustration Buddy and somewhat agree.  But in their defense, until we overcome these warm sfc temps it could snow all day and still be a big nothingburger of a storm.  So they may not feel it necessary for a WWA to be issued.  But some commentary on the situation would be nice.

Thing is though is for my area, the bulk is going to snow overnight, thus no sun and warm pavement, soil temps, whatever anyone wants to use to say it cannot happen. We are in a favorable spot as well in regards to "cooler" air. Idk just doesnt make sense to me. People in NW SC/SW NC are already over performing with snowfall sticking to roadways, so for me it it is an invalid point. Its been below freezing plenty of times up here already, so I guess we will see. Even a good middle of the road approach would trigger WWA for this region. Very poor. Rant done now, lets get excited for this storm! Good to see everyone reporting in and all the models giving us a wonderful treat regardless!

[kvegas-wx]

Wow, local point and click forecast via WU is now up to 6" for the triad.  Good luck with that.  There better be a deform band coming thru over night Friday night cuz I dont see that shaking out today.  Snow and 40° dont usually the best bedfellows make!

 

[wncsnow]

It's sad but you see it in every storm that people in areas that wont get much snow try to downplay the whole event even for those who are already getting snow..... They hang on to every last piece of information or model that snows the least snowy situation.. They may be right sometimes but its more of an ideological thing. "If i dont get a good storm noone should"!

[DopplerWx]

16 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It's sad but you see it in every storm that people in areas that wont get much snow try to downplay the whole event even for those who are already getting snow..... They hang on to every last piece of information or model that snows the least snowy situation.. They may be right sometimes but its more of an ideological thing. "If i dont get a good storm noone should"!

you and western nc will do very well, not being a troll just being realistic for my area east as i have seen these setups many times of the years. apologies if it comes across as downplaying for other areas. any snow for locations on the forum is a win in my book. hope you enjoy it today!

[wncsnow]

Just now, DopplerWx said:

you and western nc will do very well, not being a troll just being realistic for my area east as i have seen these setups many times of the years. apologies if it comes across as downplaying for other areas. any snow for locations on the forum is a win in my book. hope you enjoy it today!

I wasnt just talking about you but I understand your sentiment. I honestly think CLT will get a few inches as it winds down.. My area will mix for a while too but I'm pretty encouraged by latest guidance. Good luck

[kvegas-wx]

Good grief.....local forecast on WU now upped....again....to 8" for the Triad.  Unreal!

[3monkeymom]

Technically my area got carved out of this forum a few years ago, so feel free to delete this if it's not appropriate. I just wanted to wish the rest of the forum the kind of best case scenario/overperform that we've gotten here on the north shore of Lake Pontchartrain. There were models showing 2-4" accumulations here, but they were outliers and I thought they were totally out to lunch--especially after last night's NWS soundings showed a deep and persistent warm nose. But here we are this morning with a solid 3" on the ground at my house, 2m temps parked at 31 degrees, and continued moderate snowfall. I'll post photos if anyone is interested in seeing them.

 

I know this doesn't automatically translate to a better-than-average performance for the rest of the southeast, and it's rare (if not impossible) for all of us to be pleasantly surprised by a single event, but just know that I'm rooting for every one of you! May this system somehow find a way to meet or exceed all your expectations.

[kvegas-wx]

4 minutes ago, 3monkeymom said:

Technically my area got carved out of this forum a few years ago, so feel free to delete this if it's not appropriate. I just wanted to wish the rest of the forum the kind of best case scenario/overperform that we've gotten here on the north shore of Lake Pontchartrain. There were models showing 2-4" accumulations here, but they were outliers and I thought they were totally out to lunch--especially after last night's NWS soundings showed a deep and persistent warm nose. But here we are this morning with a solid 3" on the ground at my house, 2m temps parked at 31 degrees, and continued moderate snowfall. I'll post photos if anyone is interested in seeing them.

 

I know this doesn't automatically translate to a better-than-average performance for the rest of the southeast, and it's rare (if not impossible) for all of us to be pleasantly surprised by a single event, but just know that I'm rooting for every one of you! May this system somehow find a way to meet or exceed all your expectations.

99.9% of the time it probably makes sense for you not to report in the SE forum.  But for today you are one of us!!  Thanks for the obs and post.  Happy for your white pre-christmas along the gulf coast!

[Dunkman]

We've been on the right side of the line here in the triad so much in recent years I can't help but think this may be the one that doesn't work out for us (relatively speaking). I'd love to be wrong but I think the line for the really good stuff ends up north and west.

[gwlee7]

I really don't have much to add to the banter or anything else for that matter anymore.  I moved to Lewisville, TX (just north of Dallas) and the weather here is boring.  It's either hot and dry or cold and dry.