burrel2 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Can somebody post the 18z GFS ensemble member accumulated snowfall map on weatherbell? Looks like it will be a thing of beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Can somebody post the 18z GFS ensemble member accumulated snowfall map on weatherbell? Looks like it will be a thing of beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 12 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Welcome to the party gfs! I wonder what us causing the lower amounts in the piedmont, in between the higher amounts east and west. I understand the east, but with the West getting good precip, you'd think the piedmont would too. I don't think that there is anything logical to explain it IMO...just a model's output...Euro doesn't have it for example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The hated warm bulge in parts of the upstate into NE GA with rain changing to snow on GFS output. Would need stronger and faster damming into that region potentially to avoid it. I haven't looked at soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Current soil temperatures... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Count 3 crush jobs on the 18z mems, e13 in particular is boardline epic assuming the output is with a stock 10:1 and snow flag. I did notice some timing spread, consensus still has the low west of Tampa at 6z Saturday while a few mems are already off the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Well, I haven't posted much today. Just letting the scenario play out. It was just as I had originally expected. The NW trend did in fact happen and we have grown to expect it with every storm. It would appear from todays late runs that climo will win most every time. Tell you the truth, I was beginning to lose faith in our models ability to foresee this event. Now that we have some rough agreement, it will come down to where the heaviest band sets up. Given the amount of cold air, I could see it setting up from the upstate to just north of Raleigh. It is usually about 50 miles north of the rain/snow line. That would be more in-line with the favored snows of the past. Watch the track of the 850 low. I still feel that the heaviest snow will be south of us here in the foothills, but we will take it. It will be interesting to see it the NW trend is over or if there will be some additional minor NW adjustments to this storm in the coming 24 hours. Fun times ahead folks. Tracking a good storm is half the fun..... right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Like 15-18 ( hard to be sure on a few) of 20 of the GFS panels gives MBY 6" .....cant say I have ever seen that lol.....at least not 48 hrs out. At this stage its about as good as a setup as it gets, if it bust now the cliff diving will be epic.....that said back in like 2008ish MHX went warning for us with 6-8" and we held a warm nose and 32.5 and rain for the whole event....the setup here though is way better and the cold is for real.....I Amazon primed a few inflatables to be here Friday for sledding so if it bust now its my fault...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, griteater said: I don't think that there is anything logical to explain it IMO...just a model's output...Euro doesn't have it for example Thanks Grit. I'll choose then to ignore it and perceive this run as a huge for nc in general. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The new model on the local news just now here (RPM) showed that snow could accumulate even down to CHS. .3 in Charleston, .9 Summerville, with a high of 2.4" in Manning. Bill Walsh went with a mix mostly inland, but perhaps ending as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Thanks Grit. I'll choose then to ignore it and perceive this run as a huge for nc in general. Lol Upsloping. The clouds and moisture will rise when it hits the mountains which will cause every drop of moisture to be wrung out of the air. Similar as to how the highest elevations do the best during the NWFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, sctvman said: The new model on the local news just now here (RPM) showed that snow could accumulate even down to CHS. .3 in Charleston, .9 Summerville, with a high of 2.4" in Manning. Bill Walsh went with a mix mostly inland, but perhaps ending as snow. Jim Gandy here in Columbia is forecasting no snow for CAE and is using the RPM. He will probably end up accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Upsloping. The clouds and moisture will rise when it hits the mountains which will cause every drop of moisture to be wrung out of the air. Similar as to how the highest elevations do the best during the NWFS. Bingo. Upsloping is always killer in the southern mtns during these type of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 What dynamic is causing snow to arrive in Upstate SC a couple hours before this thing really gets ramped up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I love upsloping. In your location it is awesome! Hoping to get a good fetch here in the southern foothills Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, strongwxnc said: In your location it is awesome! Hoping to get a good fetch here in the southern foothills Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The southern moutains should fair extremely well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The Blue Ridge Escarpment seems to do really well upslope in general as well. Portions along the BRE in last January's storm really raked up the snow in comparison to other locations nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 A couple days back most of us agreed that it would be Wednesday before we would get a good idea on what this storm would do. Even though it could still not work out well, we need to remember this next time; especially when we start tracking a storm at day 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Lookout said: well the 18z icon is pretty ridiculous Wasn't aware of this model until recently. Could be my new favorite model. Looking at the 500mb maps, the wave is neutral tilt by 60hrs and neg tilt by 72 hrs. That explains it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: Wasn't aware of this model until recently. Could be my new favorite model. It would definitely win hearts and minds of the Tennessee Valley forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: A couple days back most of us agreed that it would be Wednesday before we would get a good idea on what this storm would do. Even though it could still not work out well, we need to remember this next time; especially when we start tracking a storm at day 9. We saw this one coming a long way off. The signals were there for a winter event even at 10 days out. Not every storm can have lead times that long. We dismiss a 10 day modeled snowstorm as just fantasy. If this one pans out, and it looks like it will, we might have a little more confidence in LR forecasting. However, medium range still sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 18z GEFS trend since 12z yesterday....if this has already been posted mod's please delete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 21 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said: What dynamic is causing snow to arrive in Upstate SC a couple hours before this thing really gets ramped up? Its not just with snow it happens in rain events as well it seems. The finger of precip extends way out in front of the system and coming from the direction it is usually hits ne ga and upstate. Not sure if its the upslope affect or what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 18z GEFS trend since 12z yesterday....if this has already been posted mod's please delete.Thanks for posting pack! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 19 minutes ago, Wow said: Wasn't aware of this model until recently. Could be my new favorite model. Looking at the 500mb maps, the wave is neutral tilt by 60hrs and neg tilt by 72 hrs. That explains it. What are temps like with this mess? Looks like a ton of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 From FFC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The SREF plumes are still looking pretty anemic for a lot of areas. We're talking about a mean of around an inch for CLT and RDU, and 1.5" in GSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 16 minutes ago, Justanobody said: If FFC is correct could have thunder-snow with this.............. And if we do, all bets would be off on accumulation the folks under the thundersnow could see. There would probably be 2+ hourly rates where that happened. That should also overwhelm any warm air at the surface too if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The SREF plumes are still looking pretty anemic for a lot of areas. We're talking about a mean of around an inch for CLT and RDU, and 1.5" in GSO. We'll see if they turn for the better tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, superjames1992 said: The SREF plumes are still looking pretty anemic for a lot of areas. We're talking about a mean of around an inch for CLT and RDU, and 1.5" in GSO. I chalk this up to the enormous spread of the ensembles. The EURO ENSEMBLE has a spread from 0" to 6+" for RDU... equal chance of any scenario... This has bust potential all over it with a different track or 850s not verifying, which I'm not sold on yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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