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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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12 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Welcome to the party gfs! I wonder what us causing the lower amounts in the piedmont, in between the higher amounts east and west. I understand the east, but with the West getting good precip, you'd think the piedmont would too.

I don't think that there is anything logical to explain it IMO...just a model's output...Euro doesn't have it for example

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Well, I haven't posted much today. Just letting the scenario play out. It was just as I had originally expected. The NW trend did in fact happen and we have grown to expect it with every storm. It would appear from todays late runs that climo will win most every time. Tell you the truth, I was beginning to lose faith in our models ability to foresee this event. Now that we have some rough agreement, it will come down to where the heaviest band sets up. Given the amount of cold air, I could see it setting up from the upstate to just north of Raleigh. It is usually about 50 miles north of the rain/snow line. That would be more in-line with the favored snows of the past. Watch the track of the 850 low. I still feel that the heaviest snow will be south of us here in the foothills, but we will take it. It will be interesting to see it the NW trend is over or if there will be some additional minor NW adjustments to this storm in the coming 24 hours. Fun times ahead folks. Tracking a good storm is half the fun..... right?

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Like 15-18 ( hard to be sure on a few) of 20 of the GFS panels gives MBY 6" .....cant say I have ever seen that lol.....at least not 48 hrs out. At this stage its about as good as a setup as it gets, if it bust now the cliff diving will be epic.....that said back in like 2008ish MHX went warning for us with 6-8" and we held a warm nose and 32.5 and rain for the whole event....the setup here though is way better and the cold is for real.....I Amazon primed a few inflatables to be here Friday for sledding so if it bust now its my fault......

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4 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Thanks Grit. I'll choose then to ignore it and perceive this run as a huge for nc in general. Lol

Upsloping. The clouds and moisture will rise when it hits the mountains which will cause every drop of moisture to be wrung out of the air. Similar as to how the highest elevations do the best during the NWFS.

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6 minutes ago, sctvman said:

The new model on the local news just now here (RPM) showed that snow could accumulate even down to CHS. .3 in Charleston, .9 Summerville, with a high of 2.4" in Manning.

Bill Walsh went with a mix mostly inland, but perhaps ending as snow. 

Jim Gandy here in Columbia is forecasting no snow for CAE and is using the RPM.  He will probably end up accurate.

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6 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Upsloping. The clouds and moisture will rise when it hits the mountains which will cause every drop of moisture to be wrung out of the air. Similar as to how the highest elevations do the best during the NWFS.

Bingo. Upsloping is always killer in the southern mtns during these type of events.

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1 hour ago, Lookout said:

well the 18z icon is pretty ridiculous

 PR_000-072_0000.gif

Wasn't aware of this model until recently.  Could be my new favorite model. B)

Looking at the 500mb maps, the wave is neutral tilt by 60hrs and neg tilt by 72 hrs.    That explains it.

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1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

A couple days back most of us agreed that it would be Wednesday before we would get a good idea on what this storm would do. Even though it could still not work out well, we need to remember this next time; especially when we start tracking a storm at day 9.

We saw this one coming a long way off. The signals were there for a winter event even at 10 days out. Not every storm can have lead times that long. We dismiss a 10 day modeled snowstorm as just fantasy. If this one pans out, and it looks like it will, we might have a little more confidence in LR forecasting. However, medium range still sucks.

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21 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

What dynamic is causing snow to arrive in Upstate SC a couple hours before this thing really gets ramped up?

Its not just with snow it happens in rain events as well it seems. The finger of precip extends way out in front of the system and coming from the direction it is usually hits ne ga and upstate. Not sure if its the upslope affect or what.

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19 minutes ago, Wow said:

Wasn't aware of this model until recently.  Could be my new favorite model. B)

Looking at the 500mb maps, the wave is neutral tilt by 60hrs and neg tilt by 72 hrs.    That explains it.

What are temps like with this mess?  Looks like a ton of precip.

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16 minutes ago, Justanobody said:

If FFC is correct could have thunder-snow with this..............

And if we do, all bets would be off on accumulation the folks under the thundersnow could see. There would probably be 2+ hourly rates where that happened. That should also overwhelm any warm air at the surface too if it happens.

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Just now, superjames1992 said:

The SREF plumes are still looking pretty anemic for a lot of areas.  We're talking about a mean of around an inch for CLT and RDU, and 1.5" in GSO.

I chalk this up to the enormous spread of the ensembles.  The EURO ENSEMBLE has a spread from 0" to 6+" for RDU...   equal chance of any scenario...

This has bust potential all over it with a different track or 850s not verifying, which I'm not sold on yet.

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