griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, beanskip said: Only thing about the NAM that could be considered disconcerting is that, in winters past, it notoriously OVERestimated QPF. I remember some NAM clown maps looking like that Sierra Nevada map somebody posted a few pages back. Anyway, all the usual "NAM sucks" caveats apply, but I'd rather be discounting its wetness than dryness. It the NAM has the h5 setup right, then it's totals are reasonable.....but most modeling doesn't agree with the NAM at h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 24 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Wow made a great point about the sharpness of the trough and how that related to bigger totals. Seems like it makes a big difference. What do we need to look for in future runs for the trough to sharpen up? Need more energy dropping in from the northern stream. You can see it bend the 540 and 546dm contours farther SW toward the s/w in those 2 scenarios at 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Those Raleigh NWS maps are a bit surprising. Don't see the possibility of 6" in GSO. I'd be surprised with 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 32 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Wow made a great point about the sharpness of the trough and how that related to bigger totals. Seems like it makes a big difference. What do we need to look for in future runs for the trough to sharpen up? Edit, gosh the NAM is aweful. Basically a non event until it gets to the ocean. niner - my comments earlier were more related to the Euro and UKMet...but you were probably referring to the NAM/GFS, so ignore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 RNK going with 50% chance it will not snow here............ FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. .FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 10 ABOVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 GFS to 30- vort a bit faster/weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 13 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: You just know the bottom one is going to get a lot more shares on social media than the top one. I do like their new product, but it's ripe for misuse, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 At 54 wave is sharper, going to be more precip farther north, but it's only a tick warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 precip more expansive nw thru 57 it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 temps plenty cold for rdu snow. going to be a great run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Local met calling for 2-4" in Hampton Roads http://wavy.com/blog/2017/01/04/wed-pm-update-weekend-snow-potential/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 It's a good run for ATL to upstate, CLT, southern NC foothills so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 heres our nw trend in full effect, precip much further nw. temps looks great. snow accums should be improved this run for rdu points west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Goose said GFS would give up its stubornes inside 60 and get on board, but not a minute sooner and looks like he was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Hour 60 MUCH juicier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Better tilt and sharper trough at 60 -- should translate to surface well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 GFS at 60 has precip field further north, low still west of the Tampa area. Little better run for us in N. Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 WAY better for NE NC and SE VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Hour 66 looks GREAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Looks like a good run for a lot on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 textbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, DopplerWx said: textbook. Almost , Boom! Worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Thumping Mack and Shetley at 66, killer Rates And Lookout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 WOW big changes on the 18z. Mountains to coast have a great run here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Jackpot looks like Greenville, NC and SW of there. Good run for much of NC save the SE corner and NW corner....good just to the NW of Columbia and Florence and the NW part of the SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4-5" here, now 7 runs in a row with almost the same exact amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 GFS literally jackpots my house with about 6 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Biggest thing I noticed on this GFS run was that at hour 48 compared to 54 hr 12z panel is 500mb heights are just a tad further south across the OK panhandle and the just a tad further north across the Carolina's. Maybe 50 miles if that much. More digging to the west with more ridge to the east and a weaker low off the NE coast yields more precip on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Finally...the GFS comes more in-line with the EC, it appears. Maybe it will improve even more at 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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