The Alchemist Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Hope I did this right (Copy/Paste)... Do they normally have these social media Q&As? I've not noticed them before this... Public Information Statement National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 318 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER SOCIAL MEDIA QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION TO BE HELD THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 2 TO 3 PM EST... The National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg South Carolina office will be holding a social media question and answer session on Twitter and Facebook Thursday, January 5 from 2 to 3 pm EST. During that hour, we will attempt to answer as many of your questions as possible about the upcoming winter weather across our region. Please tweet your questions or comments to @NWSGSP or post or message us on our U.S. National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC Facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 This didn't make sense from the Atlanta NWS Discussion. 8 to 1 is wet snow, not dry... "Expect this snow, particularly across north GA to be dry in nature, and have opted to go with a 8 to 1 ratio of water equivalent to snow. Future forecast packages may opt for an even higher ratio, producing additional snow accumulation." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 15 minutes ago, griteater said: The 2 models showing the riskiest setup are the NAM and the CMC (models with the least stream separation). Good news is that it's the long range NAM and the CMC. Bad new is, it's not out of the realm of possibility, though low chance. The CMC did make a little progress in the 12z run though I was surprised WPC liked the NAM. Fairly good agreement between GFS/Euro/UK on separation. I guess the good news is even the least desirable NAM gets snowfall in and around the areas. Come on GFS, get in the game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mryanwilkes Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 35 minutes ago, lj0109 said: I'll have whatever CAE is drinking (Obviously its a mistake or old map they are modifying) Where on weather.gov/cae are you finding this map (even though it's not yet updated.) For some reason, i'm not seeing it anywhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 And here's the NAM parallel total Snowfall. Worse than the Op NAM for north GA. I know it's out of the NAM's useful range but there isn't much trend in GA with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trevor1621 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 http://m.accuweather.com/en/us/virginia-beach-va/23451/daily-weather-forecast/351321?day=4 accuweather showing 8-12 for Virginia Beach as of now Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Winter storm watch issued for Birmingham area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Clark Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 From the RAH disco published at 2:35 this afternoon: Bust potential: The GFS solution is very cold and further south meaning that if it verifies the southern tier could get more than the 1-3 inch most likely scenario. This could lead to a bust on the low side for the NW Piedmont with that area getting less than an inch if the moisture axis is too far south. The ECMWF solution is further north and could lead to the opposite scenario where temperatures are warmer across the south and a mix of rain/sleet/snow cuts down accumulations significantly. This northerly scenario would shift the heavier banding of snow to the north which could lead to higher amounts in the NW Piedmont than the 1-3 inch most likely scenario. The NAM solution is a mix of the two and may be the closest to the actual forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 More and more sites are doing those Q&A sessions, which is great for the public IMO. Nate Johnson at WRAL did a facebook live earlier today and folks were getting super frustrated in the comments because he wouldn't tell an exact amount or location. One thing I want to keep an eye out is the progression of the 850 through central NC. I think more mixing will occur until the 850 is established which may reduce totals in the triangle. Someone mentioned the ecmwf ensembles have a more southern 850 than the op. Trend to keep an eye on given the euro's track record with those temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Wow made a great point about the sharpness of the trough and how that related to bigger totals. Seems like it makes a big difference. What do we need to look for in future runs for the trough to sharpen up? Edit, gosh the NAM is aweful. Basically a non event until it gets to the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Trevor1621 said: http://m.accuweather.com/en/us/virginia-beach-va/23451/daily-weather-forecast/351321?day=4 accuweather showing 8-12 for Virginia Beach as of now Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Accuweather is saying "Around a foot" for Greensboro when I know that isn't going to happen. Can't put a whole alot of trust in their totals at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersNotComing Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, mryanwilkes said: Where on weather.gov/cae are you finding this map (even though it's not yet updated.) For some reason, i'm not seeing it anywhere... It was taken down. They sent out a tweet saying there was a mistake and a new map should be up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The NAM really has me worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: The NAM really has me worried. Just hold for 45 min until the GFS renews your enthusiasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bargainmusic Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, sarcean said: Accuweather is saying "Around a foot" for Greensboro when I know that isn't going to happen. Can't put a whole alot of trust in their totals at all. Weather Channel had W-S around 2-4", dropped us down to about 1-2" if we're lucky. I don't think this will hit us at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, SteveVa said: 12z Euro gives me 0.8" qpf at temps between 30 and 32. Verbatim 7-9 inches. EPS avg is around 3-4" for my area. Latest NAM has me at 5", 12z GFS has about 1-2" for me but with a bullseye 50 miles to the south. I'm getting more confident, but being in extreme SEVA you can never get your hopes up. Im rooting for ya, Hoping to head down from northern Va to do some plowing if there is enough. Its looking like 6" is pretty doable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trevor1621 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Accuweather is saying "Around a foot" for Greensboro when I know that isn't going to happen. Can't put a whole alot of trust in their totals at all.Haha I agree 100%. I always get so hyped up for snow around here, but even if I saw everywhere/everyone saying 10000% chance of 14 inches for Virginia Beach in the back of my mind I'd just know it would end up being 1-2 inches of wet snow. FINGERS CROSSED THOUGH!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: The NAM really has me worried. You looking at the NAM, has me worried! Kendra Kent , local fox met, going with 2+, as of now! Said could go higher, some models are showing zero snow! Keeping an eye on it! Another concern for me, is our low is only 39 Thursday night, and high of 46 Friday!!! Per TWC local Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, bargainmusic said: Weather Channel had W-S around 2-4", dropped us down to about 1-2" if we're lucky. I don't think this will hit us at all. I think 1-3" for GSO, 2-4" for RDU, 3-6" along I-95 (with 6"+ along a stripe) looks like a good call at this point. I think this could be an Elizabeth City and/or Norfolk jackpot. If the storm spools up and bombs out, someone in NE NC/SE VA could see double-digit totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Birmingham is under a Winter Storm Watch. Come on FFC. What are you waiting for ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Wow made a great point about the sharpness of the trough and how that related to bigger totals. Seems like it makes a big difference. What do we need to look for in future runs for the trough to sharpen up? Honestly, CLT won't like a sharpened wave, but Big Frosty would. We're right where we need to be. This isn't a monster storm setup for us. Just light to moderate One thing that would sharpen it would be for increased separation and less positive tilt as it treks through the 4 corners. Not sure how increased western ridging would affect things...could deepen it, or it could kick it forward. Less arctic press through the Ohio Valley would lift the heights there and open the door for the wave to sharpen and climb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Birmingham is under a Winter Storm Watch. Come on FFC. What are you waiting for ? BHM is clearly hugging the GFS on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, MotoWeatherman said: BHM is clearly hugging the GFS on this one. Heck FFC is hugging the GFS too saying we will get 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 NAM is dryslot city. Need the initial precip bands to initiate east of the apps and/or the coastal moisture fetch to start sooner. Certainly not a good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Only thing about the NAM that could be considered disconcerting is that, in winters past, it notoriously OVERestimated QPF. I remember some NAM clown maps looking like that Sierra Nevada map somebody posted a few pages back. Anyway, all the usual "NAM sucks" caveats apply, but I'd rather be discounting its wetness than dryness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Heck FFC is hugging the GFS too saying we will get 2-3". By them issuing a WSW, it's not going to make it so. Why worry over this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Heck FFC is hugging the GFS too saying we will get 2-3". The last 2 NAM runs had that too roughly, albeit in a band so narrow that if someone takes a leak it moves 20 miles and someone sees nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Maybe we should start a new thread and take the word "possible" out of the title? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The Columbia Fire Department just posted the map on their Twitter of 8-12" in Columbia. Oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Maybe we should start a new thread and take the word "possible" out of the title? When it is snowing on all board members here, I will change it to "Likely". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.