MotoWeatherman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 This cat is far from being resolved. Just rewind back to Monday and look at the posts and model solutions that were popping out. Fast forward two more days (Friday) and I have a feeling significant shifts are still to come regarding jackpot areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, wncsnow said: NAM looks really anemic to me, dont see more than 4 inch amounts anywhere through 66 Much much better for WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The NAM keeps developing a back end SW-NE band of snow in Alabama and GA right around hour 60 through 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Nam has 2" here, each run edges up a little. Cold air not even close to being a problem, that lends more credibility to the idea that the Euro is too warm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The NAM really liking the ATL a bit more on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, MotoWeatherman said: This cat is far from being resolved. Just rewind back to Monday and look at the posts and model solutions that were popping out. Fast forward two more days (Friday) and I have a feeling significant shifts are still to come regarding jackpot areas. Just look at the Ensembles, still a huge spread. NAM is looking a little like the GFS to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Much much better for WNC. Nothing more than 2 or 3 inches though maybe a little more in higher elevations. Jackpot ENC once again some 6 inch amounts but CLT wont like that run doesnt even have 1 inch there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 334 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... Confidence is increasing for widespread winter precipitation late Friday through early Saturday. While it is still early to specify precipitation type or accumulations for any one location, the current forecast calls for mostly snow possibly mixed with rain at the onset of the event. Currently, the greatest potential for accumulating snow is along and north of a Columbus to Macon to Augusta line. A swath of heavier snow is currently forecast for the I20 and I85 corridor in west central Georgia extending northeast along the I85 corridor through northeast Georgia. This includes the northeast Georgia mountains. Within the band of heavier snow, accumulations of 2-3 inches, with locally higher amounts are possible. Far northwest Georgia currently has forecasted accumulations up to an inch, however, confidence is not as high across far northwest Georgia and amounts could go higher. For areas on either side of a line from Lagrange to Forsyth to Eatonton to Augusta, up to an inch is possible, however, more rain mixed with snow is possible and may lower overall accumulations. While it is still to early to pinpoint exact onset, precipitation is expected to start across northwest Georgia during the afternoon hours on Friday and continue to spread southeast through Friday night and into Saturday morning. As we approach the onset of this event, we hope to provide a better timing estimate. Travel may become difficult late Friday afternoon across north Georgia spreading south and east with the wintry precipitation, continuing into Saturday morning. With high temperatures on Saturday only expected to reach the mid 30s north of the I85 corridor, travel could remain difficult through the day Saturday into Sunday...particularly in the north Georgia mountains. Stay tuned for further updates from the National Weather Service or local officials regarding travel impacts in your area. Currently, no watch or warning has been issued, however, as we move closer to the event a watch may be issued for portions of north and central Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 NAM jackpots NE NC with 6"+ widespread 4-5" eastern NC east of I-95, 3-4" in Central NC/RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justanobody Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, LovingGulfLows said: The NAM keeps developing a back end SW-NE band of snow in Alabama and GA right around hour 60 through 66. Like I said last night, this is extremely similar to the huge rain shield just a couple days ago, patterns tend to follow tracks obviously, and at that time it rained for hours upon hours in Atlanta with an extreme cutoff to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, WXinCanton said: Just look at the Ensembles, still a huge spread. NAM is looking a little like the GFS to me. I know right? So many all or nothing solutions. The more east this trends the more in trouble we are in our neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 It's all about trends with the NAM at this juncture. Remember the NAM is still not that accurate until we hit hour 48 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Special Weather Statement issued by FFC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Nothing more than 2 or 3 inches though maybe a little more in higher elevations. Jackpot ENC once again some 6 inch amounts but CLT wont like that run doesnt even have 1 inch there Better than the goose egg it showed previously for majority of WNC. Trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Well, that was a wonky NAM run. It ended up better for NW regions and southern regions. The max stripe shifted towards I-95, but there were little bits and spurts everywhere. I imagine it's because were dissecting the long range NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: NAM looks really anemic to me, dont see more than 4 inch amounts anywhere through 66 The 2 models showing the riskiest setup are the NAM and the CMC (models with the least stream separation). Good news is that it's the long range NAM and the CMC. Bad new is, it's not out of the realm of possibility, though low chance. The CMC did make a little progress in the 12z run though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Cheeznado said: It's all about trends with the NAM at this juncture. Remember the NAM is still not that accurate until we hit hour 48 or so. I'm just ready to see that precip void between the TN band and the middle GA band fill in a bit. It will stink to see more snow just to my north AND south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 NAM staying the course for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Nothing more than 2 or 3 inches though maybe a little more in higher elevations. Jackpot ENC once again some 6 inch amounts but CLT wont like that run doesnt even have 1 inch there If I'm not mistaken, one of the mets here has said the NAM is struggling with precip amounts recently. It's more or less the trend that we're watching with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Looks like most of North GA doesn't get anything on the NAM. Not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Looks like most of North GA doesn't get anything on the NAM. Not looking good. It's the NAM at 60 plus hours. Don't sweat it. As I just posted, the trends are more important than details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I wouldn't mind just taking an average blend of the Euro, GFS, NAM, and CMC for a solid 6 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Looks like most of North GA doesn't get anything on the NAM. Not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Surface low track is in a great position but precip is just really anemic over north GA for some reason. Strange that the model showing the worst track for far north GA, the GFS being too far south, is the one giving us the most snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Looks like most of North GA doesn't get anything on the NAM. Not looking good. West Georgia looking solid! haha I will take it...plus it trended better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 12z Euro gives me 0.8" qpf at temps between 30 and 32. Verbatim 7-9 inches. EPS avg is around 3-4" for my area. Latest NAM has me at 5", 12z GFS has about 1-2" for me but with a bullseye 50 miles to the south. I'm getting more confident, but being in extreme SEVA you can never get your hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, mckinnonwg said: West Georgia looking solid! haha I will take it...plus it trended better Looks like i'll be making a trip to Carrollton to see my dad on Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: It's the NAM at 60 plus hours. Don't sweat it. As I just posted, the trends are more important than details. Yeah, Tom Niziol on TWC said 1-2" for ATL metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, SteveVa said: 12z Euro gives me 0.8" qpf at temps between 30 and 32. Verbatim 7-9 inches. EPS avg is around 3-4" for my area. Latest NAM has me at 5", 12z GFS has about 1-2" for me but with a bullseye 50 miles to the south. I'm getting more confident, but being in extreme SEVA you can never get your hopes up. Your sitting pretty for sure.. If the GFS gets on board I think you should get 4 inches easily perhaps a lot more. Snow down there is fun but watch out for the crazy drivers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 27 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I'm going with 3-6" for GSP. my experience living my entire life in to GSP area...I'd say this will be about a 2-3" for GSP. Not complaining. Typically, these storms that come across the TN valley and then take a nose dive, then gets itself back together off the coast...just doesn't seem to have enough moisture for our neck of the woods. Those mountains have a tremendous affect on our weather...more than most want to appreciate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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