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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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17 minutes ago, Lookout said:

pretty bullish for ffc


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
256 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2017


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
Aside from some lingering enhanced NW gradient winds and scattering
stratocu deck this evening as CAA continues in post-frontal
regime...the main forecast concern begins at the end of the short
term trending into the first portion of the long term with wintry
weather potential. Thursday night into early Friday morning
indicates a possible slug of moisture enhancement with relatively
weak forcing into portions of north GA but mainly far north GA.
Based on progged thermal profiles and some midlevel omega...have
included a transition of light rain to snow but mainly north of the
Atlanta metro region. QPF is not impressive so have left out any
accumulations for this period and any amounts of significance should
be later Friday...see long term discussion for more details.

Baker


.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
Tricky forecast with upcoming winter weather event progged to
begin Friday into Saturday. The GFS continues to have the most
run-to-run consistency, with the swath and amounts of highest
accumulations varying little over the last 7-8 runs. ECMWF and CMC
models have trended towards the GFS solution over the last 24
hours, and the first peeks of the period in the Hi-Res models
are not too far off. Thus, the forecast pops, qpf and snowfall
accumulations are heavily weighted towards the GFS and GEFS (GFS
ensemble) solutions.

Confidence for this event is increasing, with low to medium
confidence on location and accumulations, and medium confidence on
timing. Several of the 12z model runs are beginning to indicate
the potential for light winter precip to begin Friday morning
(potentially before sunrise) across generally north Georgia. Amounts
should be light. Rain chances will increase from the south
through the day Friday as surface low feature lifts out of the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Cold temperatures will continue to drop
across north Georgia, combining with this moisture to promote a
transition from rain to snow, generally Friday evening. A switch
over to all snow is expected overnight and early Saturday for
areas generally north of a line from Columbus to Macon to
Swainsboro. Currently, the greatest potential for accumulating
snow is along and north of this line, with the swath of highest
accumulations extending from the AL/GA line (along the I-20
corridor) through the metro Atlanta area and into northeast GA
(including the NE GA mountains). In this area, 2-3 inches of snow
are possible with isolated higher amounts. Expect this snow,
particularly across north GA to be dry in nature, and have opted
to go with a 8 to 1 ratio of water equivalent to snow. Future
forecast packages may opt for an even higher ratio, producing
additional snow accumulation. A few things to note: due to the
position of the moisture, far NW GA is only expected to see around
1 inch of accumulation or less, and in portions of central
Georgia where snow is forecast, extended periods of rain or
rain/snow mix would result in lower snowfall accumulations.

Vertical profiles are suggesting a thick saturated layer overnight
Friday into Saturday morning, all below 0C. The combination of
this deep moisture layer and the nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates
suggest that the environment may support bands of heavy
precipitation, at times convective in nature. As of now, have
kept precipitation wording to either rain or snow, but will need
to monitor how future models are handling the evolution of the
event.

High pressure moves into the area Saturday afternoon, although
wrap around moisture could still produce light snow in portions of
NE GA. The high pressure should keep skies clear and temperatures
frigid through the remainder of the weekend. Expect snow
accumulations to stick around through Monday with lows in the
teens and 20s and highs remaining in the 30s. Dew point
depressions should allow some sublimation of snow to occur.

Agree on that being bullish....I just wonder if the low is going to be strong enough and the upper/mid levels will support the convection referred to in that outlook. Im not seeing that atm.  I do know this is going to play Havoc with Delta's operations Saturday am. Thank god im not working then. We haven't had a major de-ice operation in quite a while and throughput for aircraft is ....lets just say..."limited".

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2 minutes ago, DeltaPilot said:

Agree on that being bullish....I just wonder if the low is going to be strong enough and the upper/mid levels will support the convection referred to in that outlook. Im not seeing that atm.  I do know this is going to play Havoc with Delta's operations Saturday am. Thank god im not working then. We haven't had a major de-ice operation in quite a while and throughput for aircraft is ....lets just say..."limited".

I agree as well it is bullish...but they tend to be very neutral with their writings so I wonder if they are onto something.  They are very accurate IMO.

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10 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

From me eyeballing it, it looks like GSP has 28/52 members of the EPS with some snow. a couple of big ones in there as well. 

I feel like a good call for GSP proper, is 2-4". We need this to trend NW slightly, and have it cold or colder than the GFS! If we are 40-42 when it starts, and I really hope we are not, we lose some qpf to rain!

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3 minutes ago, mckinnonwg said:

I agree as well it is bullish...but they tend to be very neutral with their writings so I wonder if they are onto something.  They are very accurate IMO.

You guys kill me if they said too little you would be all over them,  I think they know a little more than us armchair mets in here. The GFS has been saying this consistently.

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Just now, Justanobody said:

You guys kill me if they said too little you would be all over them,  I think they know a little more than us armchair mets in here. The GFS has been saying this consistently.

 

You're acting like they haven't been wrong before. Plenty of times they've busted on forecasts in both directions which causes them to become more conservative or liberal in future forecasts.

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50 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Below average confidence

lol, slightly.  That is in regard though to the overall forecast, not their preference for specific model blends. Their preference is their preference, whether they're confident in it or not, that's what they prefer...

40 minutes ago, griteater said:

The 850mb low on the Euro tracks from Atlanta to just north of Columbia to Cape Hatteras

The 250mb jet structure on the Euro is textbook for a Carolinas snow with us being in the right entrance of a strengthening jet streak over the Mid Atlantic...aiding in deep moisture and lift

Awesome grit. I-85 Miller A, I would expect good dynamics in general.  We don't get them modeled unless that's usually there.  I bet this thing is more expansive than we've seen so far in regard to precip.  Higher or lower snow totals, who knows. 

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2 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

 

You're acting like they haven't been wrong before. Plenty of times they've busted on forecasts in both directions which causes them to become more conservative or liberal in future forecasts.

Absolutely of course they have.  I am just saying every one on here is a snow weenie, yet when they say something great in the AFD, people jump on them thinking they are being too bullish.  Cannot win....

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