griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, griteater said: 0z Ens had 7 of the 51 members with big totals running from the mtns into C VA. This run didn't have any. Many of the members have snow in the mtns, I'm just saying that there were no members that ran higher totals up into C VA this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaPilot Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 17 minutes ago, Lookout said: pretty bullish for ffc Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 256 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2017 .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/... Aside from some lingering enhanced NW gradient winds and scattering stratocu deck this evening as CAA continues in post-frontal regime...the main forecast concern begins at the end of the short term trending into the first portion of the long term with wintry weather potential. Thursday night into early Friday morning indicates a possible slug of moisture enhancement with relatively weak forcing into portions of north GA but mainly far north GA. Based on progged thermal profiles and some midlevel omega...have included a transition of light rain to snow but mainly north of the Atlanta metro region. QPF is not impressive so have left out any accumulations for this period and any amounts of significance should be later Friday...see long term discussion for more details. Baker .LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/... Tricky forecast with upcoming winter weather event progged to begin Friday into Saturday. The GFS continues to have the most run-to-run consistency, with the swath and amounts of highest accumulations varying little over the last 7-8 runs. ECMWF and CMC models have trended towards the GFS solution over the last 24 hours, and the first peeks of the period in the Hi-Res models are not too far off. Thus, the forecast pops, qpf and snowfall accumulations are heavily weighted towards the GFS and GEFS (GFS ensemble) solutions. Confidence for this event is increasing, with low to medium confidence on location and accumulations, and medium confidence on timing. Several of the 12z model runs are beginning to indicate the potential for light winter precip to begin Friday morning (potentially before sunrise) across generally north Georgia. Amounts should be light. Rain chances will increase from the south through the day Friday as surface low feature lifts out of the northern Gulf of Mexico. Cold temperatures will continue to drop across north Georgia, combining with this moisture to promote a transition from rain to snow, generally Friday evening. A switch over to all snow is expected overnight and early Saturday for areas generally north of a line from Columbus to Macon to Swainsboro. Currently, the greatest potential for accumulating snow is along and north of this line, with the swath of highest accumulations extending from the AL/GA line (along the I-20 corridor) through the metro Atlanta area and into northeast GA (including the NE GA mountains). In this area, 2-3 inches of snow are possible with isolated higher amounts. Expect this snow, particularly across north GA to be dry in nature, and have opted to go with a 8 to 1 ratio of water equivalent to snow. Future forecast packages may opt for an even higher ratio, producing additional snow accumulation. A few things to note: due to the position of the moisture, far NW GA is only expected to see around 1 inch of accumulation or less, and in portions of central Georgia where snow is forecast, extended periods of rain or rain/snow mix would result in lower snowfall accumulations. Vertical profiles are suggesting a thick saturated layer overnight Friday into Saturday morning, all below 0C. The combination of this deep moisture layer and the nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates suggest that the environment may support bands of heavy precipitation, at times convective in nature. As of now, have kept precipitation wording to either rain or snow, but will need to monitor how future models are handling the evolution of the event. High pressure moves into the area Saturday afternoon, although wrap around moisture could still produce light snow in portions of NE GA. The high pressure should keep skies clear and temperatures frigid through the remainder of the weekend. Expect snow accumulations to stick around through Monday with lows in the teens and 20s and highs remaining in the 30s. Dew point depressions should allow some sublimation of snow to occur. Agree on that being bullish....I just wonder if the low is going to be strong enough and the upper/mid levels will support the convection referred to in that outlook. Im not seeing that atm. I do know this is going to play Havoc with Delta's operations Saturday am. Thank god im not working then. We haven't had a major de-ice operation in quite a while and throughput for aircraft is ....lets just say..."limited". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Yeah it needs to stop trending south. Ill take this look and lock it in We need the Op GFS to jump in...I never had an event where we got good snow with GFS showing almost nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, DeltaPilot said: Agree on that being bullish....I just wonder if the low is going to be strong enough and the upper/mid levels will support the convection referred to in that outlook. Im not seeing that atm. I do know this is going to play Havoc with Delta's operations Saturday am. Thank god im not working then. We haven't had a major de-ice operation in quite a while and throughput for aircraft is ....lets just say..."limited". I agree as well it is bullish...but they tend to be very neutral with their writings so I wonder if they are onto something. They are very accurate IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I'll have whatever CAE is drinking (Obviously its a mistake or old map they are modifying) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: We need the Op GFS to jump in...I never had an event where we got good snow with GFS showing almost nothing. Yeah hopefully 18z shifts more towards the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Man! That SC map can't be real can it? Has to be an oldie they are using as a template Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Quote Man! That SC map can't be real can it? Has to be an oldie they are using as a template Correct. They are updating it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, No snow for you said: From me eyeballing it, it looks like GSP has 28/52 members of the EPS with some snow. a couple of big ones in there as well. I feel like a good call for GSP proper, is 2-4". We need this to trend NW slightly, and have it cold or colder than the GFS! If we are 40-42 when it starts, and I really hope we are not, we lose some qpf to rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: We need the Op GFS to jump in...I never had an event where we got good snow with GFS showing almost nothing. I thought the GFS showed a few inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Changes in the NAM. Hr 54 is starting the snow in the NC mountains and foothills. Wasn't there on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justanobody Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, mckinnonwg said: I agree as well it is bullish...but they tend to be very neutral with their writings so I wonder if they are onto something. They are very accurate IMO. You guys kill me if they said too little you would be all over them, I think they know a little more than us armchair mets in here. The GFS has been saying this consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 hr 51 on the nam and precip looks better to the nw into nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: I feel like a good call for GSP proper, is 2-4". We need this to trend NW slightly, and have it cold or colder than the GFS! If we are 40-42 when it starts, and I really hope we are not, we lose some qpf to rain! I'm going with 3-6" for GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: I thought the GFS showed a few inches here. Verbatim it shows 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Man! That SC map can't be real can it? Has to be an oldie they are using as a template They really shouldn't let stuff out like that with social media and all! That's a 1 in 50 years kind of stuff for CAE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 00z sat snow into raleigh, rn/snow line just to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, Justanobody said: You guys kill me if they said too little you would be all over them, I think they know a little more than us armchair mets in here. The GFS has been saying this consistently. You're acting like they haven't been wrong before. Plenty of times they've busted on forecasts in both directions which causes them to become more conservative or liberal in future forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, DopplerWx said: hr 51 on the nam and precip looks better to the nw into nc Yeah with the LP crossing over N Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 hr 57 is much better for the NW piedmont and foothills. Let's see what happens when the coastal gets cranking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just want to see the s/w trough sharpen up more. Here are 6 12z GEFS members with their snow maps and H5 mid level maps. You can see the difference it makes for those in western NC/SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I'm concerned I will be too far north to see much in Chapel Hill. But I figure I'll get in between what Raleigh and Greensboro get, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Yeah with the LP crossing over N Florida Perfect location for a major Atlanta snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Hey--the NAM bringing the goods for NW NC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Precip well up into Central VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 50 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Below average confidence lol, slightly. That is in regard though to the overall forecast, not their preference for specific model blends. Their preference is their preference, whether they're confident in it or not, that's what they prefer... 40 minutes ago, griteater said: The 850mb low on the Euro tracks from Atlanta to just north of Columbia to Cape Hatteras The 250mb jet structure on the Euro is textbook for a Carolinas snow with us being in the right entrance of a strengthening jet streak over the Mid Atlantic...aiding in deep moisture and lift Awesome grit. I-85 Miller A, I would expect good dynamics in general. We don't get them modeled unless that's usually there. I bet this thing is more expansive than we've seen so far in regard to precip. Higher or lower snow totals, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justanobody Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: You're acting like they haven't been wrong before. Plenty of times they've busted on forecasts in both directions which causes them to become more conservative or liberal in future forecasts. Absolutely of course they have. I am just saying every one on here is a snow weenie, yet when they say something great in the AFD, people jump on them thinking they are being too bullish. Cannot win.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Won't surprise me I someone in NE NC sees 14 + ..I've seen these lows send some pretty wicked moisture back into this area with these types of setups. Still heavy blue bands of snow even after things have died down here in the upstate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 NAM looks really anemic to me, dont see more than 4 inch amounts anywhere through 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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