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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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26 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Funny thing is 24-36 hours ago I think it brought precip in faster than any model.  Surface profiles for the Euro are always subject to questions.  I've seen it severely bust on surface temps high and low.  850s are largely too warm in N GA through til late.

ya, it was the quicker of the models bringing  the precipitation in here...lol times have changed for sure.  2m and 850's are colder this run for us here in GA...I have never been a fan of the euro 2m temps, like you said usually too high.  

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55 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

The GFS has been consistently showing this finger over heavier precip over the Savannah river valley Friday night, while most other modeling does not show this  vertically oriented maxima.

Do any Met's have an explanation for what the GFS is picking up on here? I noticed some of the surface isobars are bent in over this area. Maybe an inverted trough of sorts? Whatever it's seeing... I hope it's right!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_11.png

I would think that could be some enhancement up agains the mtns there.  with the flow starting to pile in moisture there.  maybe some kind of local deal.  Kind of like the local warm bubble up that way sometimes.

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16 minutes ago, Lookout said:

exactly..and i don't think it's wishful thinking that the euro is maybe wrong here since there is some support for it. 

here's the 12z french. wouldn't take much to see those 0.75 liquid into the atlanta/athens area.  It also trended colder for friday vs it's 06z run. 

PR_000-096_0000.gif

 

Yall are right, it won't take much to really push some heavier amounts in yall's backyard.  In fact I noticed ALL models trend colder at 2m and 850 today.

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pretty bullish for ffc

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
256 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2017


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
Aside from some lingering enhanced NW gradient winds and scattering
stratocu deck this evening as CAA continues in post-frontal
regime...the main forecast concern begins at the end of the short
term trending into the first portion of the long term with wintry
weather potential. Thursday night into early Friday morning
indicates a possible slug of moisture enhancement with relatively
weak forcing into portions of north GA but mainly far north GA.
Based on progged thermal profiles and some midlevel omega...have
included a transition of light rain to snow but mainly north of the
Atlanta metro region. QPF is not impressive so have left out any
accumulations for this period and any amounts of significance should
be later Friday...see long term discussion for more details.

Baker


.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
Tricky forecast with upcoming winter weather event progged to
begin Friday into Saturday. The GFS continues to have the most
run-to-run consistency, with the swath and amounts of highest
accumulations varying little over the last 7-8 runs. ECMWF and CMC
models have trended towards the GFS solution over the last 24
hours, and the first peeks of the period in the Hi-Res models
are not too far off. Thus, the forecast pops, qpf and snowfall
accumulations are heavily weighted towards the GFS and GEFS (GFS
ensemble) solutions.

Confidence for this event is increasing, with low to medium
confidence on location and accumulations, and medium confidence on
timing. Several of the 12z model runs are beginning to indicate
the potential for light winter precip to begin Friday morning
(potentially before sunrise) across generally north Georgia. Amounts
should be light. Rain chances will increase from the south
through the day Friday as surface low feature lifts out of the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Cold temperatures will continue to drop
across north Georgia, combining with this moisture to promote a
transition from rain to snow, generally Friday evening. A switch
over to all snow is expected overnight and early Saturday for
areas generally north of a line from Columbus to Macon to
Swainsboro. Currently, the greatest potential for accumulating
snow is along and north of this line, with the swath of highest
accumulations extending from the AL/GA line (along the I-20
corridor) through the metro Atlanta area and into northeast GA
(including the NE GA mountains). In this area, 2-3 inches of snow
are possible with isolated higher amounts. Expect this snow,
particularly across north GA to be dry in nature, and have opted
to go with a 8 to 1 ratio of water equivalent to snow. Future
forecast packages may opt for an even higher ratio, producing
additional snow accumulation. A few things to note: due to the
position of the moisture, far NW GA is only expected to see around
1 inch of accumulation or less, and in portions of central
Georgia where snow is forecast, extended periods of rain or
rain/snow mix would result in lower snowfall accumulations.

Vertical profiles are suggesting a thick saturated layer overnight
Friday into Saturday morning, all below 0C. The combination of
this deep moisture layer and the nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates
suggest that the environment may support bands of heavy
precipitation, at times convective in nature. As of now, have
kept precipitation wording to either rain or snow, but will need
to monitor how future models are handling the evolution of the
event.

High pressure moves into the area Saturday afternoon, although
wrap around moisture could still produce light snow in portions of
NE GA. The high pressure should keep skies clear and temperatures
frigid through the remainder of the weekend. Expect snow
accumulations to stick around through Monday with lows in the
teens and 20s and highs remaining in the 30s. Dew point
depressions should allow some sublimation of snow to occur.
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I would think that could be some enhancement up agains the mtns there.  with the flow starting to pile in moisture there.  maybe some kind of local deal.  Kind of like the local warm bubble up that way sometimes.



That look reminds me a lot of Christmas '10 storm. That storm had a "finger" extend up the lee side of the mtns that arrived sooner than modeled and also dumped 3-6" more than initially modeled. No saying it equates to that amount but I think it's something to keep an eye on for the folks in the SC and NC foothills.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

The Euro Ens Mean matched everything from the operational run.  A little more stream separation, a little more pos tilt on the wave, a little weaker sfc low, a little colder

Definitely great to see.  Thank you all for posting maps and for the pbp.

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

The Euro Ens Mean matched everything from the operational run.  A little more stream separation, a little more pos tilt on the wave, a little weaker sfc low, a little colder

I really want the GFS to back off some though and come towards it. 

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Afternoon update - RAH disco...

Most likely scenario: While models are still varying with the exact
track of the system, how much moisture we will have in place, and
how cold temperatures will be, we have a most likely scenario in
place that highlights the areas between the I-85 and I-95 corridors
as the place where the highest snowfall totals may occur. At this
point looks like friday night into saturday is the most likely
timing with accumulations of 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts
possible. Snow is still probable in the NW Piedmont and the southern
tier but the confidence is not as high in these areas for reasons I
will explain below. For now would put 1-3 inches across both of
these areas as the most likely scenario.

Bust potential: The GFS solution is very cold and further south
meaning that if it verifies the southern tier could get more than
the 1-3 inch most likely scenario. This could lead to a bust on the
low side for the NW Piedmont with that area getting less than an
inch if the moisture axis is too far south.

The ECMWF solution is further north and could lead to the opposite
scenario where temperatures are warmer across the south and a mix of
rain/sleet/snow cuts down accumulations significantly. This
northerly scenario would shift the heavier banding of snow to the
north which could lead to higher amounts in the NW Piedmont than the
1-3 inch most likely scenario.

The NAM solution is a mix of the two and may be the closest to the
actual forecast.

An outside possibility is that as the low deepens off of the coast,
moisture advection back across NE North Carolina could lead to much
higher snowfall totals along the northern portions of the I-95
corridor and points northeast. Confidence is very low at this time
but that is a possible scenario.
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