Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: A few days ago the GFS was really sharp with the wave when it was throwing out the big totals (20-30)...it was a big outlier with the sharpness at the time...seems like it would be difficult to get back there Gotcha ok. Thanks sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 26 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Funny thing is 24-36 hours ago I think it brought precip in faster than any model. Surface profiles for the Euro are always subject to questions. I've seen it severely bust on surface temps high and low. 850s are largely too warm in N GA through til late. ya, it was the quicker of the models bringing the precipitation in here...lol times have changed for sure. 2m and 850's are colder this run for us here in GA...I have never been a fan of the euro 2m temps, like you said usually too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 55 minutes ago, burrel2 said: The GFS has been consistently showing this finger over heavier precip over the Savannah river valley Friday night, while most other modeling does not show this vertically oriented maxima. Do any Met's have an explanation for what the GFS is picking up on here? I noticed some of the surface isobars are bent in over this area. Maybe an inverted trough of sorts? Whatever it's seeing... I hope it's right! I would think that could be some enhancement up agains the mtns there. with the flow starting to pile in moisture there. maybe some kind of local deal. Kind of like the local warm bubble up that way sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 16 minutes ago, Lookout said: exactly..and i don't think it's wishful thinking that the euro is maybe wrong here since there is some support for it. here's the 12z french. wouldn't take much to see those 0.75 liquid into the atlanta/athens area. It also trended colder for friday vs it's 06z run. Yall are right, it won't take much to really push some heavier amounts in yall's backyard. In fact I noticed ALL models trend colder at 2m and 850 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 pretty bullish for ffc Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 256 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2017 .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/... Aside from some lingering enhanced NW gradient winds and scattering stratocu deck this evening as CAA continues in post-frontal regime...the main forecast concern begins at the end of the short term trending into the first portion of the long term with wintry weather potential. Thursday night into early Friday morning indicates a possible slug of moisture enhancement with relatively weak forcing into portions of north GA but mainly far north GA. Based on progged thermal profiles and some midlevel omega...have included a transition of light rain to snow but mainly north of the Atlanta metro region. QPF is not impressive so have left out any accumulations for this period and any amounts of significance should be later Friday...see long term discussion for more details. Baker .LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/... Tricky forecast with upcoming winter weather event progged to begin Friday into Saturday. The GFS continues to have the most run-to-run consistency, with the swath and amounts of highest accumulations varying little over the last 7-8 runs. ECMWF and CMC models have trended towards the GFS solution over the last 24 hours, and the first peeks of the period in the Hi-Res models are not too far off. Thus, the forecast pops, qpf and snowfall accumulations are heavily weighted towards the GFS and GEFS (GFS ensemble) solutions. Confidence for this event is increasing, with low to medium confidence on location and accumulations, and medium confidence on timing. Several of the 12z model runs are beginning to indicate the potential for light winter precip to begin Friday morning (potentially before sunrise) across generally north Georgia. Amounts should be light. Rain chances will increase from the south through the day Friday as surface low feature lifts out of the northern Gulf of Mexico. Cold temperatures will continue to drop across north Georgia, combining with this moisture to promote a transition from rain to snow, generally Friday evening. A switch over to all snow is expected overnight and early Saturday for areas generally north of a line from Columbus to Macon to Swainsboro. Currently, the greatest potential for accumulating snow is along and north of this line, with the swath of highest accumulations extending from the AL/GA line (along the I-20 corridor) through the metro Atlanta area and into northeast GA (including the NE GA mountains). In this area, 2-3 inches of snow are possible with isolated higher amounts. Expect this snow, particularly across north GA to be dry in nature, and have opted to go with a 8 to 1 ratio of water equivalent to snow. Future forecast packages may opt for an even higher ratio, producing additional snow accumulation. A few things to note: due to the position of the moisture, far NW GA is only expected to see around 1 inch of accumulation or less, and in portions of central Georgia where snow is forecast, extended periods of rain or rain/snow mix would result in lower snowfall accumulations. Vertical profiles are suggesting a thick saturated layer overnight Friday into Saturday morning, all below 0C. The combination of this deep moisture layer and the nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates suggest that the environment may support bands of heavy precipitation, at times convective in nature. As of now, have kept precipitation wording to either rain or snow, but will need to monitor how future models are handling the evolution of the event. High pressure moves into the area Saturday afternoon, although wrap around moisture could still produce light snow in portions of NE GA. The high pressure should keep skies clear and temperatures frigid through the remainder of the weekend. Expect snow accumulations to stick around through Monday with lows in the teens and 20s and highs remaining in the 30s. Dew point depressions should allow some sublimation of snow to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 eps mean is 4-5" or so for rdu, great to see. jackpot zone is far ne nc. all of nc pretty much is 2"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: eps mean is 4-5" or so for rdu, great to see. jackpot zone is far ne nc. all of nc pretty much is 2"+ That's really impressive for the mean. I'll bet there are some pretty members in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: eps mean is 4-5" or so for rdu, great to see. jackpot zone is far ne nc. all of nc pretty much is 2"+ Good to see it increase a little as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I would think that could be some enhancement up agains the mtns there. with the flow starting to pile in moisture there. maybe some kind of local deal. Kind of like the local warm bubble up that way sometimes.That look reminds me a lot of Christmas '10 storm. That storm had a "finger" extend up the lee side of the mtns that arrived sooner than modeled and also dumped 3-6" more than initially modeled. No saying it equates to that amount but I think it's something to keep an eye on for the folks in the SC and NC foothills. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 ~21/50 members show 7"+ for rdu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: eps mean is 4-5" or so for rdu, great to see. jackpot zone is far ne nc. all of nc pretty much is 2"+ Is the Mean 2"+ for Danville VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 EPS shows approx 16 out of 50 members with higher totals across the ATL and north GA area. The only area it seems with really high agreement for heavier snow is eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: That's really impressive for the mean. The Euro Ens Mean matched everything from the operational run. A little more stream separation, a little more pos tilt on the wave, a little weaker sfc low, a little colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: ~21/50 members show 7"+ for rdu About what I counted but then 15 or so under 2". Still a lot of spread. So 35 over 2". Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: The Euro Ens Mean matched everything from the operational run. A little more stream separation, a little more pos tilt on the wave, a little weaker sfc low, a little colder Definitely great to see. Thank you all for posting maps and for the pbp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: The Euro Ens Mean matched everything from the operational run. A little more stream separation, a little more pos tilt on the wave, a little weaker sfc low, a little colder I really want the GFS to back off some though and come towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: EPS shows approx 16 out of 50 members with higher totals across the ATL and north GA area. The only area it seems with really high agreement for heavier snow is eastern NC. Higher than the OP I'm assuming? Or 0z Eps? Thanks Cheez! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: About what I counted but then 15 or so under 2". Still a lot of spread. So 35 over 2". Not bad. Per Allan earlier: 0z Eps had 48/52 with some snow, 32/52 2"+, 12/52 6"+, 10/52 8"+ Ill try to get the new numbers for the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 EPS really backed off for areas NW of I-85 compared to 0z run. 0z new 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, packfan98 said: EPS really backed off for areas NW of I-85 compared to 0z run. 0z new 12z Thats a big difference! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Good to see it increase a little as we get closer. Is this a weatherbell model? and if so, where did you snag it...I can only find separate ensemble mea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 From me eyeballing it, it looks like GSP has 28/52 members of the EPS with some snow. a couple of big ones in there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, mckinnonwg said: Is this a weatherbell model? and if so, where did you snag it...I can only find separate ensemble mea Go to EPS and then click CONUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, mckinnonwg said: Is this a weatherbell model? and if so, where did you snag it...I can only find separate ensemble mea It is a weatherbell map and it is the EPS Mean for the South East. If in Weatherbell, go to EPS and then click on 6 hourly Snow mean and then click SE and it will pop up for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justanobody Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 FFC even talking about convective banding over the ATL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: About what I counted but then 15 or so under 2". Still a lot of spread. So 35 over 2". Not bad. 0z Ens had 7 of the 51 members with big totals running from the mtns into C VA. This run didn't have any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Go to EPS and then click CONUS Thank you kind sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Afternoon update - RAH disco... Most likely scenario: While models are still varying with the exact track of the system, how much moisture we will have in place, and how cold temperatures will be, we have a most likely scenario in place that highlights the areas between the I-85 and I-95 corridors as the place where the highest snowfall totals may occur. At this point looks like friday night into saturday is the most likely timing with accumulations of 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Snow is still probable in the NW Piedmont and the southern tier but the confidence is not as high in these areas for reasons I will explain below. For now would put 1-3 inches across both of these areas as the most likely scenario. Bust potential: The GFS solution is very cold and further south meaning that if it verifies the southern tier could get more than the 1-3 inch most likely scenario. This could lead to a bust on the low side for the NW Piedmont with that area getting less than an inch if the moisture axis is too far south. The ECMWF solution is further north and could lead to the opposite scenario where temperatures are warmer across the south and a mix of rain/sleet/snow cuts down accumulations significantly. This northerly scenario would shift the heavier banding of snow to the north which could lead to higher amounts in the NW Piedmont than the 1-3 inch most likely scenario. The NAM solution is a mix of the two and may be the closest to the actual forecast. An outside possibility is that as the low deepens off of the coast, moisture advection back across NE North Carolina could lead to much higher snowfall totals along the northern portions of the I-95 corridor and points northeast. Confidence is very low at this time but that is a possible scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, griteater said: 0z Ens had 7 of the 51 members with big totals running from the mtns into C VA. This run didn't have any. Yeah it needs to stop trending south. Ill take this look and lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, griteater said: 0z Ens had 7 of the 51 members with big totals running from the mtns into C VA. This run didn't have any. If you compare the SV snow mean for the GEFS vs the EPS the GEFS is higher for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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