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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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2 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

I can't quote Twitter from work, but RaleighWx just posted this:

"The 12z ECMWF brings the 850 0 line (approximate sleet/snow line) all the way to GSP to CLT to EDU to ECG around 12z Sat."

I think we're all accustomed to this, but just something to keep in mind...

The euro is by far the warmest model aloft. by 12z saturday, every other model shows the 0c 850mb isotherm way to the south while the euro is all by itself with where it has it. It's a bit surprising because it's actually a little colder at 48 hours/12z friday vs the earlier run. But odds are it's probably a bit too warm imho given how cold everything else is.  Posting the gfs here but it pretty much represents the rest of the models at that time frame valid 12z sat. 

The rest :

gfs_T850_us_13.png

 

euro

ecmwf_T850_us_4.png

 

 

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6 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Yes the north western part of North Carolina can pretty much forget about any accumulations might be a few flurries maybe we won't even get that?

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The euro just told us that but other I would not be so sure yet. The ride, it continues till triple zero time :)

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3 minutes ago, packbacker said:

The gradient is going to be heartbreaking for someone, well for lots.  You can be bullseye now but that can shift 20 miles the day of the event.  Hard to be confident anywhere you are at...though if I could pick I would pick the 95 corridor in eastern NC.

If the Euro does trend towards the GFS although it means less snow wouldn't it mean less mixing issues as well for RDU

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While there may be some precip streaking east into N MS and N Bama, given how the trough axis doesn't sharpen until later, it does make sense that the precip doesn't blossom until somewhere in the vicinity of N GA to far W SC and SW NC.  This isn't a long fetch SW flow overrunning type setup that would yield a ton of precip in the cold air from Dallas to Birmingham

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5 minutes ago, packbacker said:

The gradient is going to be heartbreaking for someone, well for lots.  You can be bullseye now but that can shift 20 miles the day of the event.  Hard to be confident anywhere you are at...though if I could pick I would pick the 95 corridor in eastern NC.

I suspect MHX will go 3-6" here assuming no major changes,  no model gives us less than 4" and if we can keep the sleet away maybe even 6-8" is doable.... 

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Just now, Cary_Snow95 said:

If the Euro does trend towards the GFS although it means less snow wouldn't it mean less mixing issues as well for RDU

 

Just now, LovingGulfLows said:

 

In a lot of ways it's luck. Who knows where the rain/sleet/snow line sets up. Wherever it does is where the winners(and losers) are going to lie. I'd rather just get .4 inches of precip if 90% of it is snow vs. taking the chance with .8 precip and there's a 60% chance most of it is rain or sleet.

Yes and yes.  I will take anything frozen I can get.  The differences between the GFS v/s Euro are hard to ignore considering this starts in 60 hours.  I would still think some form a blend is favored but I do think the euro shifts more SE then the GFS shifts NW....

Screen Shot 2017-01-04 at 1.41.09 PM.png

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Just now, cdhay17 said:

GFS has been solid past 24 hours, Euro trending further south every run. I'll stick to a middle of the two right now, but quite interesting to watch GFS stick to its guns

The euro has not been trending south every run. This has been the first one to trend south out of the last few runs. 

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4 minutes ago, Lookout said:

The euro is by far the warmest model aloft. by 12z saturday, every other model shows the 0c 850mb isotherm way to the south while the euro is all by itself with where it has it. It's a bit surprising because it's actually a little colder at 48 hours/12z friday vs the earlier run. But odds are it's probably a bit too warm imho given how cold everything else is.  Posting the gfs here but it pretty much represents the rest of the models at that time frame valid 12z sat. 

The rest :

gfs_T850_us_13.png

 

euro

ecmwf_T850_us_4.png

 

 

That right there is there exact reason for the differences in snowfall totals on the Euro, so where that line sets up means everything.  

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My ATL area call I just posted to Facebook:

Quote

K. Here is my first official call for Atlanta snow. I was ready to pull the trigger on one of the bigger snow storms in a while here (probably since 2011) but late guidance from what is usually the most reliable computer model, the ECMWF (European) has caused my to lower the totals. Beginning late Friday we will have either all snow or rain, and if we do get rain at first it will cut down accumulations. At this time I feel 100% confident in some measurable snow. Best estimate is from 1-4" with the higher amounts as you travel NE up I-85 and 400. This will occur mainly overnight Friday into early Saturday, at this time do not think Friday rush hour will be affected but it could be close. The snow ends Saturday AM, but a very cold air mass is following this system, and depending on how much snow we get, the highs Saturday through Monday may not get much above freezing or even stay below. Lows at night will be 20 or lower for 3 days, so even 1-2" of snow will turn to ice on the roads potentially causing a lot of disruption in traffic and schools/businesses for the start of the work week.

 

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1 minute ago, Cheeznado said:

Is it now OK to post WxBell Euro snow graphics and the like? I was told not to last winter.....

That information has always been conflicting. I've heard yes.... in moderation..... it would be okay. Especially if the image has already been circulated on social media

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Comparing the GFS/Euro the differences show up relatively early on...comparing hours 36 and 48 you see how much weaker the GFS is then the Euro.  The Euro wants to dig the low farther SW and GFS is a little more progressive.   Both biases may be at play but would think we start seeing more shifting fairly quick.

Screen Shot 2017-01-04 at 1.44.35 PM.png

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3 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

I Believe Wow said it was ok to post those now. Maybe they reach an agreement with Ryan at weatherbell. @Wow

THat was for a GEFS map... I'd rather not post Euro maps beyond the publicly available data.  But any other non-Euro maps from WxBell should be ok based on what Ryan's said in the past.

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Aftn Update from WPC: They like a 12z UKMet / NAM / Euro blend (along with 00z Euro Ens Mean)...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH TRACKING TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRI AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST SAT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OUT OF EASTERN GULF TO EAST COAST.

PREFERENCE: 12Z UKMET/NAM/ECMWF (REP. 00Z ECENS MEAN) CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE

19Z UPDATE: THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AMPLIFIED AS THE TROF CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...YET HAS TEMPERED TOWARD THE ECENS MEAN AND THE 12Z UKMET OVERALL PROVIDING SOME REDUCED SPREAD AND A FLATTER SOLUTION TO THE DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE OFFSHORE ON SAT. THE 12Z GEFS ALSO TRENDED FAVORABLY COMPARED TO THE GFS TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED AND NEARER COAST PRESENTATION. WHILE IT REMAINS FLAT COMPARED TO THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE THIS IS PROVIDING SOME CONFIDENCE TOWARD SOMETHING OF A MORE COMMON SOLUTION. THE 12Z UKMET MUCH LIKE THE 00Z AND THE 12Z NAM ARE MOST MIDDLE GROUND TO HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN KEEPING WITH THE PREFERENCE. A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF/UKMET BEST REPRESENTS THE PREFERRED 00Z ECENS MEAN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AS THE SPREAD REMAINS MODERATE AND VARIABLE.

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The euro just told us that but other I would not be so sure yet. The ride, it continues till triple zero time


That is true Mark I wouldn't be surprised if IT Took a big shift back to the northwest before gametime JB said he's not buying the latest euro run being that Far East? FWIW


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15 minutes ago, Lookout said:

The euro is by far the warmest model aloft. by 12z saturday, every other model shows the 0c 850mb isotherm way to the south while the euro is all by itself with where it has it. It's a bit surprising because it's actually a little colder at 48 hours/12z friday vs the earlier run. But odds are it's probably a bit too warm imho given how cold everything else is.  Posting the gfs here but it pretty much represents the rest of the models at that time frame valid 12z sat. 

The rest :

gfs_T850_us_13.png

 

euro

ecmwf_T850_us_4.png

 

 

Hey, Chris..how have you been doing on precip in the last month?  I'm coming close to last Dec.  The bands across here have been beating my expectations over and over.  Just got another 5 inches in a day and a half.  I'm thinking totals here will be under done again with whatever falls. It's a gom low after all, lol.  T

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Aftn Update from WPC: They like a 12z UKMet / NAM / Euro blend (along with 00z Euro Ens Mean)

 

PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH TRACKING TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRI AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST SAT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OUT OF EASTERN GULF TO EAST COAST.

PREFERENCE: 12Z UKMET/NAM/ECMWF (REP. 00Z ECENS MEAN) CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE

19Z UPDATE: THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST AMPLIFIED AS THE TROF CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...YET HAS TEMPERED TOWARD THE ECENS MEAN AND THE 12Z UKMET OVERALL PROVIDING SOME REDUCED SPREAD AND A FLATTER SOLUTION TO THE DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE OFFSHORE ON SAT. THE 12Z GEFS ALSO TRENDED FAVORABLY COMPARED TO THE GFS TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED AND NEARER COAST PRESENTATION. WHILE IT REMAINS FLAT COMPARED TO THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE THIS IS PROVIDING SOME CONFIDENCE TOWARD SOMETHING OF A MORE COMMON SOLUTION. THE 12Z UKMET MUCH LIKE THE 00Z AND THE 12Z NAM ARE MOST MIDDLE GROUND TO HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE IN KEEPING WITH THE PREFERENCE. A BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/ECMWF/UKMET BEST REPRESENTS THE PREFERRED 00Z ECENS MEAN. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AS THE SPREAD REMAINS MODERATE AND VARIABLE.

What...they don't like the Navgem.  It was a beast and more Euro like with digging that SW early on...

Screen Shot 2017-01-04 at 1.57.05 PM.png

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29 minutes ago, Lookout said:

the 12z canadian is so very close for north ga...considering it's showing showing half inch liquid amounts just south of atlanta and athens. it wouldn't have to be wrong by much. 

Frustrating to still have this much disagreement so close to the event. gfs, uk, icon, navgem,  and french models are on our side, while nam is starting to lean that way..while the ggem and euro are not as good. The good news though is that there was a little bit of movement of the euro toward the gfs or our side i think. I think  A middle of the road solution and your 1-4 inch call is as good as any right now...with the caveat  being the potential for more. it seems the only area that is almost a lock to get a lot is eastern nc. 

Good post. Just looked at the Euro 850 temps here, it starts out 2C then is -1 by 12Z Saturday. With evap cooling and even just a small shift towards the much colder GFS, we would be right where we need to be for more snow than what the Euro shows since there is no lack of precip in any model.....

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The GFS has been consistently showing this finger over heavier precip over the Savannah river valley Friday night, while most other modeling does not show this  vertically oriented maxima.

Do any Met's have an explanation for what the GFS is picking up on here? I noticed some of the surface isobars are bent in over this area. Maybe an inverted trough of sorts? Whatever it's seeing... I hope it's right!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_11.png

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5 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

So is this being modeled closer to a classic Miller A? Or does a Miller A go up the coast? 

It's Miller A.  Miller A/B really is based on where you are located.  If in Boston and you have a storm track into TN, then transfer to Norfolk coast and head up the eastern seaboard, it's a Miller A to them.  I believe the original paper on Miller A/B described a Miller B as the classic New England Miller B with a diving low through the Ohio Valley, then a secondary low forming off the Mid Atlantic coast....but the definition has been adopted down here as well

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