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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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3 minutes ago, griteater said:

Looks just like the UKMet really

Awesome...thanks for the PBP. 

Now let's just hold it for a couple more days. 

Edit, to say that has the look of a classic late blooming I-85 special.  I don't think it's going to get any better than that. South and west would need the storm to pop along the gulf and that's just not advertised with this set up.  I'll take my 6 inches and congrats Raleigh on the foot! 

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4 minutes ago, griteater said:

Light precip (rain or snow) begins late Fri aftn....doesn't get going good with snow until after 10PM Fri

Now are we done worried about a NW trend?  I am more worried about the miss SE, although for you that's less of a concern.  There were several whiffs on the GEFS, I believe 5....so 20% chance of a whiff.

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18 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Boo. Looks like the GGEM here, nothing to speak of. I have a bad feeling, but will hope the consistency of the other models like the UKMET and GFS hold true.

the 12z canadian is so very close for north ga...considering it's showing showing half inch liquid amounts just south of atlanta and athens. it wouldn't have to be wrong by much. 

Frustrating to still have this much disagreement so close to the event. gfs, uk, icon, navgem,  and french models are on our side, while nam is starting to lean that way..while the ggem and euro are not as good. The good news though is that there was a little bit of movement of the euro toward the gfs or our side i think. I think  A middle of the road solution and your 1-4 inch call is as good as any right now...with the caveat  being the potential for more. it seems the only area that is almost a lock to get a lot is eastern nc. 

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1 minute ago, packbacker said:

Now are we done worried about a NW trend?  I am more worried about the miss SE, although for you that's less of a concern.  There were several whiffs on the GEFS, I believe 5....so 20% chance of a whiff.

Certainly feels better now...Euro was perfect for us because it had the nice stream separation, but it was more positive tilt so it didn't go amped and warm.  The slightly more stream separation helps with both temps and ensuring we get a storm.  Long way to go

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Just now, griteater said:

Certainly feels better now...Euro was perfect for us because it had the nice stream separation, but it was more positive tilt so it didn't go amped and warm.  The slightly more stream separation helps with both temps and ensuring we get a storm.  Long way to go

If these runs can hold till tomorrow's 12z's I will feel better.  Until then I am hugging the least snowy (GFS).

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Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Very good sign for those west of 77 if that trend continues for the next few model runs. Only thing is that eastern areas would have to worry about mixing if that trend keeps up. Who knows. 

I feel like we're grasping at straws right now on the western part of the state. I very well may be wrong but the gfs, euro, ukie, and cmc are all converging on a similar solution. 

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I feel like we're grasping at straws right now on the western part of the state. I very well may be wrong but the gfs, euro, ukie, and cmc are all converging on a similar solution. 

Yes the north western part of North Carolina can pretty much forget about any accumulations might be a few flurries maybe we won't even get that?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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2 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

What I noticed on the Euro precip. maps is how tight the gradient is between over an inch of precip. and less than .5 inches. In GA, it's no more than 20 miles. In fact, I'd say from the 0z run to the latest 12z, the gradient has gotten tighter everywhere in the SE.

The gradient is going to be heartbreaking for someone, well for lots.  You can be bullseye now but that can shift 20 miles the day of the event.  Hard to be confident anywhere you are at...though if I could pick I would pick the 95 corridor in eastern NC.

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