SnowNiner Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: Looks just like the UKMet really Awesome...thanks for the PBP. Now let's just hold it for a couple more days. Edit, to say that has the look of a classic late blooming I-85 special. I don't think it's going to get any better than that. South and west would need the storm to pop along the gulf and that's just not advertised with this set up. I'll take my 6 inches and congrats Raleigh on the foot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 When is this looking to start in the CLT/GSP areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Euro keeps getting better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Really the shift came when it hit the atlantic, a smidge weaker and a hair east. QPF (12z (left) and 0z (right)). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: When is this looking to start in the CLT/GSP areas? Midnight-ish up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1" here on the Euro, more to the NE. So my old rule is, when you have two models that will not blink go smack dab in the middle. So my 1st call for Atlanta is 1-4", higher amounts the more NE you go. 1-2" IMBY Candler Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Need this to blossom about 30-60 minutes earlier or shift west about 40 miles to jackpot. But congrats to the Brickster Wake forest jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: rdu jackpot this run. on the edge of a mix but boom or bust. Best run of the Euro yet. I can smell the sleet at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Boo. Looks like the GGEM here, nothing to speak of. I have a bad feeling, but will hope the consistency of the other models like the UKMET and GFS hold true. So in N Georgia, was the problem precip, temp, or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: When is this looking to start in the CLT/GSP areas? Light precip (rain or snow) begins late Fri aftn....doesn't get going good with snow until after 10PM Fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Really the shift came when it hit the atlantic, a smidge weaker and a hair east. QPF (12z (left) and 0z (right)). 1 And a decrease in the western side of NC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Best run of the Euro yet. I can smell the sleet at my house. Riding that line is where the best snow is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: Riding that line is where the best snow is. True, sitting there myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 It has some comma head snows Sat AM into Sat aftn from upstate, N SC, and C NC into E and NE NC....looks pretty amazeballs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: Light precip (rain or snow) begins late Fri aftn....doesn't get going good with snow until after 10PM Fri Now are we done worried about a NW trend? I am more worried about the miss SE, although for you that's less of a concern. There were several whiffs on the GEFS, I believe 5....so 20% chance of a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6Z Para GFS big jump back NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Riding that line is where the best snow is. No doubt. Do or die is the line. A small shift either way can and will make or break you. Thrills of tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Euro is being just as consistent as the GFS. GFS moves a little north, Euro moves a little south. Both seem to be expanding the precip, too. Meet in the middle and I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Best run of the Euro yet. I can smell the sleet at my house.Frosty has got his snow shields in full force!!! LolSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 18 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Boo. Looks like the GGEM here, nothing to speak of. I have a bad feeling, but will hope the consistency of the other models like the UKMET and GFS hold true. the 12z canadian is so very close for north ga...considering it's showing showing half inch liquid amounts just south of atlanta and athens. it wouldn't have to be wrong by much. Frustrating to still have this much disagreement so close to the event. gfs, uk, icon, navgem, and french models are on our side, while nam is starting to lean that way..while the ggem and euro are not as good. The good news though is that there was a little bit of movement of the euro toward the gfs or our side i think. I think A middle of the road solution and your 1-4 inch call is as good as any right now...with the caveat being the potential for more. it seems the only area that is almost a lock to get a lot is eastern nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Now are we done worried about a NW trend? I am more worried about the miss SE, although for you that's less of a concern. There were several whiffs on the GEFS, I believe 5....so 20% chance of a whiff. Certainly feels better now...Euro was perfect for us because it had the nice stream separation, but it was more positive tilt so it didn't go amped and warm. The slightly more stream separation helps with both temps and ensuring we get a storm. Long way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: 6Z Para GFS big jump back NW. That one has been trending NW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Certainly feels better now...Euro was perfect for us because it had the nice stream separation, but it was more positive tilt so it didn't go amped and warm. The slightly more stream separation helps with both temps and ensuring we get a storm. Long way to go If these runs can hold till tomorrow's 12z's I will feel better. Until then I am hugging the least snowy (GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: That one has been trending NW... Very good sign for those west of 77 if that trend continues for the next few model runs. Only thing is that eastern areas would have to worry about mixing if that trend keeps up. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Here was the coarser grained SV snowmap... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Very good sign for those west of 77 if that trend continues for the next few model runs. Only thing is that eastern areas would have to worry about mixing if that trend keeps up. Who knows. I feel like we're grasping at straws right now on the western part of the state. I very well may be wrong but the gfs, euro, ukie, and cmc are all converging on a similar solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I can't quote Twitter from work, but RaleighWx just posted this: "The 12z ECMWF brings the 850 0 line (approximate sleet/snow line) all the way to GSP to CLT to EDU to ECG around 12z Sat." I think we're all accustomed to this, but just something to keep in mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 What I noticed on the Euro precip. maps is how tight the gradient is between over an inch of precip. and less than .5 inches. In GA, it's no more than 20 miles. In fact, I'd say from the 0z run to the latest 12z, the gradient has gotten tighter everywhere in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I feel like we're grasping at straws right now on the western part of the state. I very well may be wrong but the gfs, euro, ukie, and cmc are all converging on a similar solution. Yes the north western part of North Carolina can pretty much forget about any accumulations might be a few flurries maybe we won't even get that?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: What I noticed on the Euro precip. maps is how tight the gradient is between over an inch of precip. and less than .5 inches. In GA, it's no more than 20 miles. In fact, I'd say from the 0z run to the latest 12z, the gradient has gotten tighter everywhere in the SE. The gradient is going to be heartbreaking for someone, well for lots. You can be bullseye now but that can shift 20 miles the day of the event. Hard to be confident anywhere you are at...though if I could pick I would pick the 95 corridor in eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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