SteveVa Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I'm feeling good about the upcoming storm, it looks like Tidewater should get a couple of inches. I'm only worried about a big NW jog because that would mean a big cut in totals and a lot of mixing. EPS has me in the bullseye but since I live in Va Beach I'm still very cautious just like local mets. NWS AKQ only went with a .5" to 2" forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 31 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I like our back yards right now. There was some significant big dogs on the euro ensemble plots. 11 of them were 6"+. Also, if we get one of these big dogs, I think we have the best shot at a below zero morning for the first time since 1985. If we could fast forward to Friday morning, I would feel good with where we are, but we've got no wiggle room now with temperatures with this ticking north. Having the GFS south is nice, but I don't know if it just won't collapse and really climb north (hope not). 19 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: I think we have a good shot at some snow. I'm worried that this storm overall is as grit mentioned, a "late bloomer" and belongs to eastern nc/sc. All the models kinda show that with the bullseyes way out east when the storm is in the Atlantic. For clt, we've got to get a good fetch of snow while the storm is in the gulf to our southwest and south. Once it gets to the Atlantic, it's all the eastern counties IMO unless a deform band sets up, and there's no way to tell if we get that or not at this stage. If I'm guessing right now I'd say we're at 1-3 inches tops, unless the models start correcting. I'd be rooting for the GFS to trend NW another 100 miles and keep the temp profiles. Yeah, the late blooming aspect and steady moving wave makes this look more like a light to moderate event to me instead of a biggie (in general). The late blooming aspect is kind of good in a way for us from a temperature aspect. An earlier ramp up with the setup could favor more warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, WidreMann said: And 12 hours earlier than any of the other models. You know it's officially winter when WidreMann comes out of hiding.... Where have you been man. You're missing the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Much better look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Still looks very elongated and unorganized on the NAM but it does give SEVA over half a foot like most of the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Several cycles ago, we were talking about snow in the low 20s. Now, we're seeing more evidence of borderline temps creep in. It's a little disconcerting to not see high pressure being modeled better as we close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Much better for RDU eastward: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The fresh in my mind issue, was the big February storm on a Friday. Was supposed to have a small window of rain in the morning and transition to ice and snow shortly after. The rain came in waaaay early, like 6pm Thursday night, stayed rain until 2 pn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The NAM went a long way towards the GFS, it low has 1-3" in the ATL area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Well to no ones surprise huge NW trend with the NAM. Look for that to continue next 24 hours. Buckle up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, griteater said: If we could fast forward to Friday morning, I would feel good with where we are, but we've got no wiggle room now with temperatures with this ticking north. Having the GFS south is nice, but I don't know if it just won't collapse and really climb north (hope not). Yeah, the late blooming aspect and steady moving wave makes this look more like a light to moderate event to me instead of a biggie (in general). The late blooming aspect is kind of good in a way for us from a temperature aspect. An earlier ramp up with the setup could favor more warmth. Are you thinking this runs up or into southern GA and into SC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Several cycles ago, we were talking about snow in the low 20s. Now, we're seeing more evidence of borderline temps creep in. It's a little disconcerting to not see high pressure being modeled better as we close in. Yep, our mortal enemies the Great lake lows are on both the EURO and Canadian. Don't know about the UKMET. GFS I didn't see a high to our north, but no GLL. Gotta hope we keep the GFS temps and trend just a bit more NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Are you thinking this runs up or into southern GA and into SC? 06z JMA is already there in S GA. Yeah, it's the JMA, but... We'll see. Glad the GFS is still south for now. You and I need to root for a separated wave that gives us a storm, but one that isn't too amped. Watch the trends over the NE too...need the heights to press out off the NE coast instead of relaxing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 As of 7:24AM http://www.weather.gov/gsp/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 NAM was pretty warm, but the good news is the 4km NAM at 60 hours is more robust with the precip and a few degrees colder at the surface compared to the 12km. It's the long range hi res NAM, of course; still encouraging to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Para NAM looks snowier for N GA and SC Upstate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Para NAM looks snowier for N GA and SC Upstate Is this the 4km NAM chapelhillwx was referring to? TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Para NAM looks snowier for N GA and SC Upstate Very GFS like...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Cheeznado said: Very GFS like...... Is that the Para NAM or regular NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, WXinCanton said: Is that the Para NAM or regular NAM? Para NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Very GFS like...... Snowier for Ga and Sc? Not seeing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 38 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: The long range NAM is why we cant have nice things. I'm also doubting how warm we get on Friday if clouds make it here early enough. We'll see. Fischell said the same thing on air last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 43 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Look for the NAM to hold the energy stronger, longer in future runs. I've seen it many times. I agree. I'm quite confident the next run will have a more amped up storm. Since the wave is now faster and we're getting more ahead of the HP, this will look more like a Miller A with a SW to NE snow axis and the r/s line closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 27 minutes ago, griteater said: 06z JMA is already there in S GA. Yeah, it's the JMA, but... We'll see. Glad the GFS is still south for now. You and I need to root for a separated wave that gives us a storm, but one that isn't too amped. Watch the trends over the NE too...need the heights to press out off the NE coast instead of relaxing there. If the GFS moves to the Euro track at 12z I will start to worry...though I generally just accept that any winter storm that Raleigh gets we always mix with rain/sleet. I don't remember the last one...boxing day maybe. The EPS did concern me a little...definitely a NW amped look. There were several member that we wouldn't like.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 So correct me if I'm wrong, but it doesn't appear that there is a chance this storm phases. With warm water temps in the gulf and SE Atlantic (70s just offshore), what are the odds that some form of bombogenesis occurs? I know that water temps are far from the only thing that goes into this, and the upper level features may not be in play, but figured I'd bring it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 GFS is rolling and out to 3hrs. Should be interesting at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: If the GFS moves to the Euro track at 12z I will start to worry...though I generally just accept that any winter storm that Raleigh gets we always mix with rain/sleet. I don't remember the last one...boxing day maybe. Pack, looks like our area is inbetween the euro (northeast sweet spot), NAM (slightly west sweet spot), and GFS (southeast sweet spot). All in all not bad but wish this was 24hrs later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The RGEM at 48 looks like it would go boom way more than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowDeac said: So correct me if I'm wrong, but it doesn't appear that there is a chance this storm phases. With warm water temps in the gulf and SE Atlantic (70s just offshore), what are the odds that some form of bombogenesis occurs? I know that water temps are far from the only thing that goes into this, and the upper level features may not be in play, but figured I'd bring it up. I don't see any phasing over the SE at all...at best, could get a trough axis that goes slightly negative tilt. Yes, warm gulf and atlantic waters could aid precip plume Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The RGEM at 48 looks like it would go boom way more than the NAM. The northern stream has been trending west since yesterday which is increasing the possibility of a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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