griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: third motion This would be for the folks in mtns and E TN with a little higher snow ratios potentially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 How realistic is it that any areas (under the ECMWF) see those higher 15:1 ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Here you go guys .1" better than nothing I guess.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Here you go guys Thanks, over on this side we're going to be pulling down nice ratios to try and make up for lack of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 What a ride this has been. Yesterday at 18z the GFS gave me 10" and the Euro gave me nothing. Now the Euro gives me 10" and the GFS gives me flurries. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSC29356 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: I would love to but I concider that cheating.. good thing I'm a Browns fan, because 1: I deal with disappointment and 2: I always hear and say "wait til next year!" Tracking winter storms for me is like watching a Browns game: the pieces are there and it starts out promising, but it always collapses in the end BUT there is always that miracle season (i.e. storm) looming on the Horizon...that is the best analogy as to how I feel right now I feel you on that one for sure. You guys down there have to have the more southern storm track or WAA in the way. Unless it's an dynamic ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, cg2916 said: How realistic is it that any areas (under the ECMWF) see those higher 15:1 ratios? I would limit it to the mtns of NC and VA...and E TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, cg2916 said: How realistic is it that any areas (under the ECMWF) see those higher 15:1 ratios? Not very realistic at all, considering sleet makes it close to GSP and RDU this run. Stick with 10:1. 15:1 ratios almost never pan out unless there are unusual circumstances, like being on the northern fringe of a suppressed system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Had to see the EURO before I could fall asleep...lol I don't pay for the ECMWF so I too greatly appreciate the pbp. Thanks to each one of you who provides that service for the rest of us! As to be expected, models are trending more towards a better consensus. The area around Roanoke Rapids, NC typically does well in these scenarios. We shall see how the subsequent model suites play out. Of course, I'm still waiting for my 12/23-24/89 redux here in Wilmington. This isn't it! (Ha ha) Then again, I'm honestly just hoping for a 12"+ event for anywhere from a Charlotte/Greensboro/Raleigh/Roanoke Rapids line E or ENE from there to SE VA for a prospective chase. At this time, I feel there's a good probability it may very well occur. Ok. I'm out. Goodnight all, and "may all your dreams be white!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: I would limit it to the mtns of NC and VA...and E TN What about between 10:1 and 15:1 ? Is that realistic for most areas ? Like maybe 12:1 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: What about between 10:1 and 15:1 ? Is that realistic for most areas ? Like maybe 12:1 ? 10:1 is a pretty good call I'd say for most areas...with exception being the far NW areas or with elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, UpstateSC29356 said: What about the blue ridge mtns above 1500 ft where I'm located? (Extreme northern SC) Maybe a little north of 10:1....just guessing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: What about between 10:1 and 15:1 ? Is that realistic for most areas ? Like maybe 12:1 ? If you're close to the rain/sleet/snow line it'd probably be 8:1 or so. 10:1 happens usually with temps 30-32 but there's more to it than that as well. When your 850-700mb temps are -8c to -15c you start getting very high ratio snows. 850s are -5c to -10 over NW NC/SVA and ETN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Not going to post the maps, but the 00z French model (Arpege) and the JMA both look to be in line with the UKMet and Euro. Fight begins now I think for the GSP to CLT to RDU corridor to hold off temps http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=jma&run=00&stn=PNM&hh=084&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=00&mod2=arpege&hh2=084&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=fr&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 32 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: What about between 10:1 and 15:1 ? Is that realistic for most areas ? Like maybe 12:1 ? Eurowx runs Dahlonega proper from 6:1 at the beginning to 10:1 for the majority of the precip. It keeps surface temps there at 33 through 12z Saturday, though, which would easily be cured by just slightly more elevation. But I would guess 10-12:1 for most of the event with 3-5" accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 hour ago, griteater said: So the Euro caved to the GFS and UKMet in that run in terms of now having the stream separation...which is a good thing for getting a good storm. It was a very nice pass of the 500mb wave...even goes slightly neg tilt thru the Carolinas. It matches up well I think with HickoryWx's ideas earlier. He's had a lot of good posts over the yrs Thanks, the euro is definitely a good hit for NC. The GFS is normally bad in these split/flow setups until we get inside of 3 days. Climo wise, the 500mb heights are very supportive of a snowstorm for most of NC north of I40. I honestly wouldn't be too worried about sleet until you get around/south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 My take: Euro actually trended snowier here from last run to this one. GFS rock solid with 4-5" here for 4 runs in a row with the heaviest actually south of me.. UKIE trended more suppressed. GGEM stuck to its guns for the most part with mostly snow here. I am not 100% buying the new Op Euro yet since it has been less consistent than the GFS. The Euro is not always the best model at this time range, especially if it has been not consistent. EDIT: EPS mean a bit colder than the Op run. A few members give ATL over 4". The game is still afoot for us..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Huge EPS mean increase for NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Huge EPS mean increase for NC Looks pretty good. Numerous big-dogs too. Continues the "all or nothing" look though. Go big or go home I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 If it helps - http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/SLR/slrmap.htm The link has frequency of snow ratios by area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Great job griteater! Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 hours ago, Timothy Clyde said: About **** time the Appalachians are coming into play. This is a good time to join the ball game hot zone vs 5 days ago. Climo seems to be winning. Hi wilkes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Hi wilkes ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Where's Big Frosty? I'm trending toward you big boy! Hang in thereI right here!! Just woke up, had to take a peek! I like the looks of the Euro much better, maybe some better ratios up here make up for lack of qpf. Thanks for the pbp!!! I hope I have to eat a big plate of crow, us country folks like crow!! My cousin in Moyock NC as usual is in the jackpot. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6z GFS Ticking NW. Big hit for RDU south and east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6z GFS bringing up the snow totals for Upstate SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I-85 corridor. The GFS is coming for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 That looks like a trend to the NW with the precip - good to see Euro and GFS starting to come in line. From the NWS RAH disco (full text here: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=RAH&product=AFD&issuedby=RAH): Quote "For now, preliminary snow amount forecast will range from 1-1.5 inches in the northwest to 2-4 inches in the southeast. Again though, the confidence in those numbers is low at this time." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Latest thinking from NWS in Raleigh. Has initial amounts they will be going with: Friday and Saturday: This will be the most exciting part of the forecast, as there is a good chance we will experience the first snow of the winter in Central NC Friday Night and Saturday. Although the ECMWF and GFS are in fairly good agreement, there are still significant differences in the precipitation forecasts, as the axis of precip in the GFS is farther to the southeast than that of the ECMWF. Even small differences in the location of the precip will result in significant differences in precipitation amounts. As a result, confidence in the precip onset, intensity, and amounts is still somewhat low. The coastal low that will bring the chance for flurries Thursday night will move off to the northeast over the Atlantic on Friday. The front will stall along the coast southwest through the Gulf coast states from Friday afternoon through Saturday. A low will develop over the Gulf late Friday and being moving northeast through FL and off the Carolina coast through Saturday. Aloft, southwest flow will dominate over the southeast U.S. with strong moisture advection off the Gulf through this period. With the front to the southeast and cold air advecting into the area from the northwest, expect precipitation to be wintry in nature by 06Z Saturday over much of Central NC. The thermal profiles are such that areas along and north of the U.S. 1 corridor will be either rain (if it occurs early enough) or snow. South and east of that corridor there could be a mix of sleet between 03Z and 09Z. Regardless of the location, once the precipitation transitions to snow, it will remain snow through Saturday morning. For now, preliminary snow amount forecast will range from 1-1.5 inches in the northwest to 2-4 inches in the southeast. Again though, the confidence in those numbers is low at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Trends look good right now for RDU area. Euro was a big run and GFS shifting NW. Blend the two and it is a big storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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