griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 29 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: The power of snowpack. In my life, I have never personally experienced temps below 0 F. If my hometown of Hope Mills (in southwest Cumberland County) goes below 0 while up in Wilson I struggle to hit the teens, I may be forced to join a monastery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Many argue the models have gotten worse but in reality the reason for that perception is that they go so far out now. 20 years ago we had virtually nothing beyond 72 hours. So forecasts to day 4 or 5 were strictly guesses Honestly sometimes I wish we could go back to the simpler time of 20 years ago. A lot less stress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malak05 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: lol it's true! Looks like several good hits in there. Alot of members show stronger snow in nw region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: lol it's true! Looks like several good hits in there. Looking at those ensembles just reminds me we are still 3+ days away. Changes are coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: NAVGEM the progressive model... That's laying the wood right there Pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, Shawn said: Hi everyone, can we please not post the link in main threads like this to the other forum? Do not want to spam. Thanks. Some weather input: GFS PARA (2 runs old) and 00z GFS is good for GA and into Midlands of SC. The 00z is a tad warmer and needs to be watched though. CAE received 7 inches or so while Florence jackpots with around 8.5-9. Is there a sharp drop off past Florence? Use to getting ice pellets at the coast when inland gets snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, malak05 said: Alot of members show stronger snow in nw region Yep, looks like it. I guess the bottom line is that the players are at least on the field in one form or another. That's all you can ask for at this point, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 34 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: GFS and Canadian still showing 4 to 6 here, and the GFS has been shifting NW with each run. Have to see what the Euro does next, but that would still be a solid storm. If the NW trend continues it could be even bigger. I don't know where you got the impression that the 00Z GFS model shows 4-6 for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Surprised the 0z GEFS mean is only showing 1.5-2 inches for Atlanta when the total estimated QPF is around .5 and 850s are 0c or below for nearly the entire event....hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mryanwilkes Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 40 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Hey at least it still shows something right ? We live in GA so if we get 1" out of this lets consider it a victory. Southwire and Greenway aren't going to run themselves. Get to work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, mryanwilkes said: Southwire and Greenway aren't going to run themselves. Get to work! You sure do know a lot about Carrollton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 0z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mryanwilkes Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, Snowless in Carrollton said: You sure do know a lot about Carrollton. GMT employee for about 6 years. Moved from Nashville to Charleston, SC, to Lake Murray, SC during that time. Spent a few bucks at The Pub on the square during that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: e14 is a big fat "screw you" to the entire state of South Carolina except...(of all the freaking towns..) Clemson..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: 0z GEFS Looks to me like the ensembles support the operational once you kick the outliers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malak05 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: 0z GEFS That makes the guys above i20 in GA a Lil more at ease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: 50/50 split almost for RDU and CLT. But pretty much if there is an event it will be big for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: But unfortunately a lot of people see these images on social media 5+ days in advance and take them literally. I wish there was a rule that the general public including people in here couldn't see any weather model past 4 days. That way people wouldn't see these crazy model runs and get their hopes up. I agree. Truth is it's natural for all of us to get our hopes up...even when we might know better mentally, for as long as there's still hope, no matter how little it may be...there's still a chance. Thus, forecasts are issued probablistically. Even then, those forecasts can bust in either direction. It's the nature of the science. That said, as inexact as the science may be, forecast models are an indispensable part of weather forecasting. It's impossible for human forecasters to calculate all the data at even a fraction of the rate that the models do today. With the aforementioned in mind, the onus is on the dissiminators of the snow maps to issue a clear and highly visible disclaimer, as well as on the consumer of said information to understand its context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Look at those ensembles. The GFS is bringing this thing n/w already . Very promising stuff. I'm interested to see how the Euro handles the s/w shearing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 00z Euro is running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 It's ever so slightly better with the wave separation at 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Same out to 39, still a little more wave separation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Same out to 39, still a little more wave separation think this run will trend colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 No doubt a little more wave sep out to 48 and Pac wave is a little healthier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 For those in North Carolina, do not despair. Climatology plays a huge role. I would MUCH RATHER see the models showing this solution, this far out, rather than further west or north. Also, the atmosphere will be JUICY. The 850's ARE RIDICULOUS. This smells like a setup for SMOOTH OVERRUNNING ala a CLASSIC North/South Carolina snowstorm, with minimal mixing. If a boundary layer sets up...WATCH OUT! The pieces are there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: No doubt a little more wave sep out to 48 and Pac wave is a little healthier Yep...this run will be different at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, griteater said: No doubt a little more wave sep out to 48 and Pac wave is a little healthier Rolled over from sleep. Keep details coming. Appreciate pbp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Colder this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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