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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

So CMC doesn't have the western ridge, but gives us the wave 2 storm!?

 

2 minutes ago, Wow said:

This is the complexity right there. That NW s/w.  What the Canadian shows is exactly what yesterday's 0z GFS showed.  We want that piece to not phase into the N Pac ULL. Once the W ridge builds, we don't have our s/w diving into the SW and can only hope for some light stuff from the first wave dropping in from the polar jet.

The Euro had some of the energy coming down but was weak and got sheared out.

The UK even has a taller fully connected to EPO ridge at 84 hours (+PNA).  I don't recall something like a pac ridge being modeled so different at 84 hours by the globals.  

Looks like the GEFS has a more muted ridge so would guess it's a split among the members.  Though less ridge then the 0z.

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Here are the latest runs of the Euro and Canadian which do drop the s/w into the Southwest, but both keep it at a severely positive tilt and don't really wrap up the energy so it loses to the polar jet streaking overhead.. Canadian less so, so it does pull up some precip.  But it's so close to yesterday's 0z GFS run.  

12z Canadian

qw5A3SG.png

0z Euro

9SoUfJX.png

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2 hours ago, ncjoaquin said:

Dude. We had our 8th biggest snow ever in January of this last year, less than a year ago. 13.4 inches in January of 2016. We had our 9th biggest snow in January 2010. It has not been THAT bad. ( and I grew up in the 60's and 70's also) 

Just saying not quite from what I remember from the late 50's and sixties, snow is a lot harder to come by here now, I think most would agree with me, and yes you will get a decent snow every now and then but not like the old days, every week seems like it would snow or a very good chance of snow. 

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Alright it's 12z Sun and time for kickoff, so let the game begin. Hope someone has pbp on Euro.

We know what the pattern is going to be now and the players, 2 waves. We also know what we are rooting for and against. So it should start getting resolved over the next few model cycles. Got a chance to score a big one, the first one and also a whiff. But we have a realistic chance prime climo and that's all we can ask for. No one on here just a week ago Christmas day would have thought on New years we would be serious chasing a snow event for the 1St week of Jan, let alone 2. So we've already won half the battle and need to be gratefull we aren't chasing 10+ day patterns.

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Just now, griteater said:

Sfc low moves across N FL and then off to the NE.  Light some light snow in NC/SC....very light, but this is the setup we should shoot for overall...with expectations low.

The wave is there, just needs a little more separation between it and the PV. Very close, feeling good.

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