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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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1 minute ago, DopplerWx said:

precip shield about the same at 90, nice run for sc, cae to flo gets smoked. still like our position here in rdu, let the precip shield expand tomorrow as the sw comes ashore.

I thought it would start to be moving more NW now if it was going to do so. Still hasn't moved enough to do much here.

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Definitely a tick NW, we may be seeing the beginning of the NW trend for the GFS. Major ice for southern SC...yikes. Great storm if it plays out this way, this is not a loss by any means. Goodnight folks! Hopefully the Euro gives us the goods.


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4 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

precip shield about the same at 90, nice run for sc, cae to flo gets smoked. still like our position here in rdu, let the precip shield expand tomorrow as the sw comes ashore.

Is there a sharp cutoff near the coast?  Or does it stretch anywhere between Charleston - outer banks?  

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Ultimately this proves nothing til we see the CMC/UKIE.  As I've said many times.  If the GFS is a hold out its usually very stubborn and does not cave til inside 60 hours.  Its also gotten good at being bad the last 2 years.  It used to waffle which made it clear it was off, now it tends to stay consistent and really fool you.

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Precip totals slowly but surely inching their way NW in the Carolinas. Charlotte was around 0.01-0.05" QPF at 12z on the GFS and is now at 0.20-0.30". Fayetteville is now over 0.5" after being at 0.05" at 12z.

Interesting that after all the hysteria regarding the interaction or lack thereof, weak s/w, etc it found a way to develop more precip in central NC.

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I wouldn't torture yourself watching every shift of the GFS. On the whole, this is a really solid setup for NE GA/N SC/NC and into southern VA. In a split flow pattern, the GFS often over shears these incoming STJ waves. This results in a weaker/strung out/suppressed system. It will resolve this eventually. The PJ is screaming along over the great lakes with the departing polar vortex that swings out Thursday and drags a front through the southeast. There is a really nice boundary around 850 mb's on all the models that stalls out over the southeast. To me, that will be the focus of the heaviest precip and the areas just NW of there will be the best place for accumulating snow.

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Ultimately this proves nothing til we see the CMC/UKIE.  As I've said many times.  If the GFS is a hold out its usually very stubborn and does not cave til inside 60 hours.  Its also gotten good at being bad the last 2 years.  It used to waffle which made it clear it was off, now it tends to stay consistent and really fool you.

Enjoy hearing your input on the model tendencies, thanks.  I do recall the GFS a year or two ago being very jumpy

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Just now, chapelhillwx said:

Precip totals slowly but surely inching their way NW in the Carolinas. Charlotte was around 0.01-0.05" QPF at 12z on the GFS and is now at 0.20-0.30". Fayetteville is now over 0.5" after being at 0.05" at 12z.

Interesting that after all the hysteria regarding the interaction or lack thereof, weak s/w, etc it found a way to develop more precip in central NC.

75 miles is all we need in 4 days. 

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