SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: No way to hide it, NAM and NAM Para both were a nod to one of the worst case scenarios here...a late blooming quick hitter. Looked like the morning Euro, but worse/weaker. It really only resembled the Euro on the precip field...thermally it was colder and the setup aloft looked more like the GFS/CMC/UKMET I thought with a bastardized precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: How does it handle temps? Someone said its warm also? NAM is known for its superiority in forecasting low level cold air events, i.e. damming signatures, 2m readings etc.. not sure how it would do in what was as paltry of an 0z run as what was shown tonight. Almost like a southwest flow event rather than an organized system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 H5 and SLP look awfully similar between this run at 84hrs and the 12z ECMWF ens mean at 96. I know it's the NAM beyond its useful range but the agreement does sound an alarm, as does the latest SREF suite which is not looking so hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I think it might be like the 2015 February Snowstorm. Hampton, VA got 8 inches of snow at 32 degrees. York County got 10 inches of snow at 30 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, griteater said: No way to hide it, NAM and NAM Para both were a nod to one of the worst case scenarios here...a late blooming quick hitter. Looked like the morning Euro, but worse/weaker. Well, it looks like our fun is headed down the drain. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: NAM is known for its superiority in forecasting low level cold air events, i.e. damming signatures, 2m readings etc.. not sure how it would do in what was as paltry of an 0z run as what was shown tonight. Almost like a southwest flow event rather than an organized system. I was just about to say the same thing..... 500mb looks really weak. We need something to jump-start this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: I was just about to say the same thing..... 500mb looks really weak. We need something to jump-start this system. NAM is usually chastised for being overamped as well, thus another alarm for concern. Who knows tho it could be pulling a NAM on us, although the GFS the way its going will have the low skirting havana soon lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It really only resembled the Euro on the precip field...thermally it was colder and the setup aloft looked more like the GFS/CMC/UKMET I thought with a bastardized precip shield It's a really weird setup. As has been discussed, ideally we get good stream separation. UKMet and GFS have more of that IMO, and the UKMet sharpens the wave in the SE. But the wacky part is if we don't get stream separation, it's almost better to have the southern piece try to catch up with and get out ahead of the northern stream kind of like the CMC is doing. The NAM to me is the worst case, as it's kind of in between the 2, so it's just a weak quick hitter. This setup is a thread the needle case to the max, per usual down here. I was surprised that the TV mets jumped on some snow forecasts today. I think a more conservative play would have been warranted given the unsteady modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 21 minutes ago, griteater said: No way to hide it, NAM and NAM Para both were a nod to one of the worst case scenarios here...a late blooming quick hitter. Looked like the morning Euro, but worse/weaker. Right on. It boils down to the gulf wave being able to get it together in time for us. Step 1 is avoid as much shearing pre hour 60 up in the nw(it's gonna get pulled on, no if an butts), step 2 slow down some, step 3 ride the gom and track up through the big bend area off jax not central florida. Biggest thing I'd like to see gfs improve on is being closer to gom shoreline. Hopefully that speed thorn in the side on 0z nam, last night 0z euro wont verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Has anyone checked out how cold this air is coming out of Canada?? Hard to believe on a NW flow (for now) that we have a super hard time getting some cold air in here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Next GFS is starting to roll..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 s/w starting to weaken at 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I see no big changes vs 18z run through hr 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 actually looks a little more separated at hr 42 vs 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 stronger vort it appears with less interacting with NB vs 18z run...also *this might be super important* the vort looks LESS positively tilted as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Looks slightly more positive tilt... Strange...at 48, to me it looks slightly more neutral tilted and more seperated from the northern energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Digging quite well and holding back out west at 51. Going to be a better run than the 18z Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: Strange...at 48, to me it looks slightly more neutral tilted and more seperated from the northern energy. Thats my fault, I thought what i was seeing meant positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 At 54. this is definitely more neutral tilted and more seperated from the northern stream. Could be a fun run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Total separation at 60hr! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, LovingGulfLows said: At 54. this is definitely more neutral tilted and less seperated from the northern stream. Could be a fun run. Do you mean less interaction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, BlueRidgeFolklore said: Do you mean less interaction? Yeah, meant to say more seperated...typo...sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Slightly further west (slower) at 66 and more closer to positively tilted than flatter like 18zSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Not taking advantage of the polar jet as the 18z. Step back it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Yeah GFS is in the separated stream camp again, but it's a little weaker and farther south with the precip at 75. Western ridging slightly less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 78hr heavy snow GA/SC border moving NESent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 It's a tick warmer with temps thru SC and GA, but light snow in ATL to Columbia to Charlotte at 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Not taking advantage of the polar jet as the 18z. Step back it seems. Yep gonna miss energy coming through gl as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 81hr NE and E Ga getting hammered.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 A little heavier snow at 84 from ATL to Columbia to Florence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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