NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 12 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: You'll end up fine. I said 5 days ago this would favor 85 east more than 85 west. Cold and high ratios are there, it's all about qpf. Think the gfs is to far south in gom and that's gonna change in one of these next 3 runs it has. So track is gonna be perfect. Big question how much ns phases into lp? To emphasize again we'll nail track of LP down, but everyone needs to be very carefull and understand bust potential when your counting on phasing energy between 2 jet streams. 2 cases is Jan 2000 when it worked out great and No one saw it coming and worst case December beleive 2000 maybe 01 or 02, anyway the nws in raleigh, van denton everyone forecasted foot totals and had every model 18 hrs out on board and we woke up to milky skies sun peeking through as the ns was late with the handoff of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: To emphasize again well nail track of LP down, but everyone needs to be very carefull and understand bust potential when your counting on phasing energy between 2 jet streams. 2 cases is Jan 2000 when it worked out great and Noone saw it coming and worst case December beleive 2000 maybe 01 or 02, anyway the news in raleigh, van denton everyone forecasted foot totals and had every model 18 hrs out on board and we woke up to milky skies sun peeking through as the ns was late with the handout of energy. What a train wreck that was . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: To emphasize again we'll nail track of LP down, but everyone needs to be very carefull and understand bust potential when your counting on phasing energy between 2 jet streams. 2 cases is Jan 2000 when it worked out great and No one saw it coming and worst case December beleive 2000 maybe 01 or 02, anyway the news in raleigh, van denton everyone forecasted foot totals and had every model 18 hrs out on board and we woke up to milky skies sun peeking through as the ns was late with the handoff of energy. Yes, I remember that day well..... Was forecast to get 12-18 inches. Had a nice sunny day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, CaryWx said: What a train wreck that was . Yep, even TWC sent crews to Charlotte to film the heavy snow and there was nothing.... not even flurries...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 This might be a good analog... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: This might be a good analog... Nice try but NOPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, CaryWx said: What a train wreck that was . I think that was when Cantore was in Charlotte for the Rams game...loaded for bare and got a sunburn.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: Nice try but NOPE that's the "worst" case scenario Sadly scored the highest on CIPS on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Keep in mind models are also MUCH better than they were in 2000-2002. While they still have problems and known bias they are much improved. If we get a good Miller A track like the UK or Para NAM shows then the moisture won't be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, snowlover91 said: Keep in mind models are also MUCH better than they were in 2000-2002. While they still have problems and known bias they are much improved. If we get a good Miller A track like the UK or Para NAM shows then the moisture won't be a problem. Take a good look at the large-scale features. It just doesn't fit the GFS model out-put. My brain is telling me that there is no way this thing can track that far south. A NW trend has to happen or I haven't learned anything from all these years of reading weather models. The indices alone would argue against a track that far south. If it happens, I will have to re-think my way of discerning weather patterns. Just look at the baroclinic zone that will set up along the coast. That alone should tell you that a storm is most likely to ride that line (AKA zipper low). I might be way off base with this line of thinking, but there have been many case studies on that subject. The temperature gradient alone would suggest a precipitation shield that is more expansive than the one that's being shown. Maybe a Met can chime in with some reasoning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 55 minutes ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said: A couple days ago, there was a lot of chatter about this storm producing high ratio snow so qpf was not as important. Are we still in high ratio thinking? Sent from my VS990 using Tapatalk Those well away further NW from the low will typically have the better column for higher ratios say 12-15:1 or better but probably only have .10-.25" to work with, those close to the area where it goes from snow to rain will have ratios much lower say 8:1 but have plenty of QPF and then in the middle will be the lucky ones that have temps cold enough for ratios to be 12-13:1 and tons of QPF that will be the happy band...also as the storm ends and the cold rushes in everyone will see better ratios but it will be after 95% of the QPF is used up....this air mass is pretty darn cold though and I would think ratios would be better than normal for a typical SE storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 13 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Take a good look at the large-scale features. It just doesn't fit the GFS model out-put. My brain is telling me that there is no way this thing can track that far south. A NW trend has to happen or I haven't learned anything from all these years of reading weather models. The indices alone would argue against a track that far south. If it happens, I will have to re-think my way of discerning weather patterns. Just look at the baroclinic zone that will set up along the coast. That alone should tell you that a storm is most likely to ride that line (AKA zipper low). I might be way off base with this line of thinking, but there have been many case studies on that subject. The temperature gradient alone would suggest a precipitation shield that is more expansive than the one that's being shown. Maybe a Met can chime in with some reasoning.... Certainly, the GFS is too far south and will adjust north as we get closer. It already started that slightly at 18z and I expect the trend to continue the next 4-5 runs. The most likely track will be along the baroclinic zone if the vort digs like the GFS shows. At this range we will want to start watching the mesoscale models as they typically do a much better job picking up on the expanse of the precip shield to the NW and N of the storm. The globals will inside 72 hours. Overall I would say the I-95 corridor has the best chance of seeing 6" or more of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The arctic jet really wants to phase with the ULL on the 0z NAM. Gonna be another different run obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 NAM is rolling with newer, better data! Let's go! Pretty similar through 17hr but NS energy tugging on the s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 This is for pack or anyone else who bookmarks model output. I'd love to see a 72 hour 500 mb animation of the epic GFS run a couple of days ago. The one that dumped 30 inches in central NC. I bet it caught a phase just like the ukie has been doing in about that same area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Even less interaction between the SW and the ULL at hour 22 Might be a good run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 s/w looks a tick weaker entering OR at 23hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: This is for pack or anyone else who bookmarks model output. I'd love to see a 72 hour 500 mb animation of the epic GFS run a couple of days ago. The one that dumped 30 inches in central NC. I bet it caught a phase just like the ukie has been doing in about that same area. It's easy to do on tropical tidbits, but isn't a good format to post. It was Yesterday's 12z (I know, feels like ages ago). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: This is for pack or anyone else who bookmarks model output. I'd love to see a 72 hour 500 mb animation of the epic GFS run a couple of days ago. The one that dumped 30 inches in central NC. I bet it caught a phase just like the ukie has been doing in about that same area. Here's a link. It's a big GIF so it would probably slow the page down if I embedded it. http://imgur.com/a/jx0tt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 s/w looks a tick weaker entering OR at 23hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, Jon said: Here's a link. It's a big GIF so it would probably slow the page down if I embedded it. http://imgur.com/a/jx0tt Thanks guys, jon. Looked way different than I thought. Crazy trough stayed posotive and our 2cnd wave got left behind in Oregon then just bowling balled right down through the plains and off Ga/Carolina coast. Wasn't even closed off most of the time. Oh well back to the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Nam inside 48 should be pretty darn accurate and a good indicator if we are going to a EURO type event or if the slower UKmet solution will win out. Will we get the s/w seperation we need? I don't have maps so pls update. Keep it up. You guys are doing great. Very helpful forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Flat and sheared on the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 To me, from what i see on the models, the NS just continues to flatten the wave. I donr know if theirs anyway around that or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 This thing is being shredded to pieces. Probably gonna be a garbage run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: This thing is being shredded to pieces. Probably gonna be a garbage run. So sunny and 70 this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, lilj4425 said: So sunny and 70 this weekend? Only in Jonesville! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I wonder is the wave just weaker or the northern stream is just crushing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: To me, from what i see on the models, the NS just continues to flatten the wave. I donr know if theirs anyway around that or not. That's a given now. We want as much left behind as possible don't get me wrong. But it's the energy coming down through the lakes hr 84ish and hoping the weak wave is on the gulf Coast and not halfway to the Yucatan per gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 You can tell it's a bad run when I'm doing my meager pbp instead of Wow, grit, pack and Jon. thru 54 the s/w is being sheared to death by the NS energy. May go the way of the GFS here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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