Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: The GFS/NAM/UKMet are nice, stress free winter storms with good high pressure to the north and NE sfc winds (granted UKMet is amped and warmer)....but the Euro is struggling to produce a consistent results with good cold air. CMC is more convoluted with its evolution than the model progs would appear IMO as well. I still see the CMC/Euro moreso converging with the GFS/NAM/UKMet going forward rather than a cave...and as always, the NW trend lurks regardless of how the models consolidate...still a ways out A convergence of them all is a good consensus. I would think there will be some back and forth going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 DGEX has a surface low track similar to the ukmet/arpege/jma. Looks like it really hammers us. Anybody got a clown map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: DGEX has a surface low track similar to the ukmet/arpege/jma. Looks like it really hammers us. Anybody got a clown map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I def. would not give up on the NW trend...lol...I will say the EURO could easily be right...but I do think the cold press will be more impressive. The moist 700mb, as others have pointed out, should really allow this to blossom further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Last thing...today's Euro run is really the worst case scenario where the storm is somewhat squashed and sheared with no cold high to the north, with the storm trying to develop late. Lot of progress to make on the Euro and Euro Ensemble members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, griteater said: Last thing...today's Euro run is really the worst case scenario where the storm is somewhat squashed and sheared with no cold high to the north, with the storm trying to develop late. Lot of progress to make on the Euro and Euro Ensemble members scary, but true!! EURO was not the greatest run today....def. squash a bit..What I find funny is the GFS is yes, further south, but the EURO would be sooo much better if it was colder like the GFS/CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Jason on news 13 just said not a major snow storm at this point but not sure how he can say that just yet, lots of changes will be going on and probably an NW trend, so not sure how he reaches this conclusion just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 A lot of hope/talk about a northwest trend. About when could we expect that to start showing up on the models if it is going to occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, UpstateSCBud said: A lot of hope/talk about a northwest trend. About when could we expect that to start showing up on the models if it is going to occur? Tonight or tomorrow, shortwaves getting sampled, and I think it normally happens at about 48 hours or so, so definitely 12z runs tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, fritschy said: Jason on news 13 just said not a major snow storm at this point but not sure how he can say that just yet, lots of changes will be going on and probably an NW trend, so not sure how he reaches this conclusion just yet. I agree with you. It is way too early to draw a final conclusion. He even has an accumulation map showing 2 inches for the mountains and 1-3 south of I-85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, UpstateSCBud said: A lot of hope/talk about a northwest trend. About when could we expect that to start showing up on the models if it is going to occur? 12-48 hrs from go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Alright, our loca channel WYFF 4, just showed a map of Euro snowfall, zoomed in on our local area, and it has 6-12" in the northern 1/3 of Greenville county and about to Shetleys house in Spartanburg county! And 3-5" totals South of there to about Greenwood! The GFS he showed 1-3 county wide, 3-5" from Greenwood, South to CAE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Alright, our loca channel WYFF 4, just showed a map of Euro snowfall, zoomed in on our local area, and it has 6-12" in the northern 1/3 of Greenville county and about to Shetleys house in Spartanburg county! And 3-5" totals South of there to about Greenwood! The GFS he showed 1-3 county wide, 3-5" from Greenwood, South to CAE!Euro you say? Wonder what time stamp? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justanobody Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Alright, our loca channel WYFF 4, just showed a map of Euro snowfall, zoomed in on our local area, and it has 6-12" in the northern 1/3 of Greenville county and about to Shetleys house in Spartanburg county! And 3-5" totals South of there to about Greenwood! The GFS he showed 1-3 county wide, 3-5" from Greenwood, South to CAE! That lines up well, a couple of pros in ATL saying 3-6.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 18z NAVGEM has a lot more qpf further NW due to the northern stream phasing more with the southern s/w instead of running past it and shunting it south. Same reason the CMC, UKMET do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael__Ginger Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Raleigh: may below 14F next Monday, the lowest temperature since this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, Wow said: 18z NAVGEM has a lot more qpf further NW due to the northern stream phasing more with the southern s/w instead of running past it and shunting it south. I got a headache looking at it. It seems to lag energy behind with an odd snow band through GA/SC Sat aftn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 GEFS looked great for Eastern NC, but worse for the triad. Mean snow was around 2" for the triad and less as you go further west into the foothills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hollyspringsnc Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 First post: Weather watcher/lurker here. Enjoy watching and reading everyone's input the past several days as well as last year's storms. I have a general question about the timing of the cold air on this potential weather system. If the cold air arrives prior to the moisture, how long does it usually take for the air column to saturate and overcome a virga situation? Conversely, if the moisture arrive prior to the cold air, how long before a switch to snow? I assume this has a big impact on storm accumulation totals. I'll try to refrain from posting again to keep it on the topic of forecast interpreting. Thanks.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Bill Walsh's threat board in Charleston: 9 for rain, 3 for sleet/ice, 2 for snow, 10 for cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Not a bad look 4 days out... This map shows probability of receiving .25 or more of liquid in the form of snow or sleet from 7am Saturday until 7am Sunday. 30% hatch would probably go farther back in to georgia and alabama if we could include early morning Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 ensemble members with a few suppressed members like the op but a few big dogs too. a good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: ensemble members with a few suppressed members like the op but a few big dogs too. a good look. About as consistent as you can get, only a couple of whiffs with respect to the SE. Nice consensus and great run for Deep South. We are riding the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: About as consistent as you can get, only a couple of whiffs with respect to the SE. Nice consensus and great run for Deep South. We are riding the line. snowfall maps are great too, expect the gfs to shift n with the snowfall here tonight or tomorrow with several members north of the op, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: ensemble members with a few suppressed members like the op but a few big dogs too. a good look. Each member that has the surface low in the NE GOM is a good hit for most everyone on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 19 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Euro you say? Wonder what time stamp? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Not really sure. He did say the models flip flopped from yesterday. The one that was showing a lot of snow yesterday, was showing less today, and vice versa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: snowfall maps are great too, expect the gfs to shift n with the snowfall here tonight or tomorrow with several members north of the op, Reminds me of Jan 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Are the 18z gfs snowfall ensemble mean and panels out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, packbacker said: Reminds me of Jan 2014. John on channel 4 just said to much uncertainty right now since storm is just coming onto the California coast. most will see snow but who gets the heaviest snowfall remains to be seen, but in his opinion the GFS will tick NW, we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Are the 18z gfs snowfall ensemble mean and panels out yet? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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