LithiaWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 14 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: As been happening for the past few runs, half of the EPS members show nothing in the ATL area. 7 or so over 2", the rest trace-1. Not impressive. Hush you. Liked your posts better when you were on board with an ATL hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 New NAM looks better than the old run, cold air no problem. I am hoping we are getting into the range where the Euro is not really better than the other models, it is really an outlier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, Cheeznado said: New NAM looks better than the old run, cold air no problem. I am hoping we are getting into the range where the Euro is not really better than the other models, it is really an outlier at this point. It sort of sped things up a bit though. I felt there was some sort of movement towards a Euro idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Cheeznado said: New NAM looks better than the old run, cold air no problem. I am hoping we are getting into the range where the Euro is not really better than the other models, it is really an outlier at this point. I actually think it's the outlier now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 It's a late bloomer but the 18z NAM starts to crank it at hour 84 as you can see the precip shield really blossom between hours 81 and 84 back in MS and AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 23 minutes ago, deltadog03 said: Looking at the eps precip.shield it doesn't support.the op really at all. Looks more gfs/cmc/ukie Certainly not in the southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Why the GFS is so cold and Euro is warmer? GFS lowers heights over NE and builds in HP as our wave moved across.. Euro doesn't have this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 18z NAM stayed in the stream separation camp. Has the look of a light-mod snow from N LA to N 1/2 of Bama to ATL and north...to upstate to south of Raleigh 18z NAM Para is in the stream separation camp as well...similar to reg NAM, but a little farther south with the storm, snow line farther south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: 18z NAM stayed in the stream separation camp. Has the look of a light-mod snow from N LA to N 1/2 of Bama to ATL and north...to upstate to south of Raleigh 18z NAM Para is in the stream separation camp as well...similar to reg NAM, but a little farther south with the storm, snow line farther south I have the feeling this could be a I-85 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 15Z SREF PLUMES for RDU are having a very difficult time with the temperature beyond 6Z Friday. A spread of almost 30 degrees and a mean never reaching freezing until 6Z Saturday at least. This is probably due to the models having a difficult time with the placement of the low and how much warm air feeds in. Models having difficult time with storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: I have the feeling this could be a I-85 special. Great Lakes Low and no HP up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, JoshM said: Great Lakes Low and no HP up north 1062 high in Colorado is fine for areas west though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, JoshM said: Great Lakes Low and no HP up north Banana high, man!! We are going to be in the deform band! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 RAH disco this afternoon - 1/3/17 During the past 24 hours the GFS solution has come much more in line with the ECMWF as far as timing is concerned and so the favored timing is now Friday night into Saturday morning and there is more confidence in this then there was 24 hours ago. The new run of the ECMWF has thrown a bit of a curveball however in that it has come in much warmer than the previous runs. This leaves the P-type in serious question, especially from US-64 southward. This is the first run that has done this and could potentially lead to a messy p-type transitional area across our area. For now will keep the forecast as rain or snow south of 64. Much of this will depend on the exact track of the low pressure system over the Pacific and how deep the longwave trough becomes over the eastern CONUS. Therefore not willing to even conjure a guess at any kind of snowfall accumulations, if any, at this time. Models are in sync on precipitation exiting the area by 00z Sunday. Temps will start out in the 40s on Friday, will dip into the 20s on Friday night and only top out in the low 30s on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, JoshM said: Great Lakes Low and no HP up north Ouch, yeah where did that crap come from. Get rid of the lakes low. More flies in the ointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, JoshM said: Great Lakes Low and no HP up north 850 temps at hour 84: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Looked at JMA QPF and it looks like half an inch from the escarpment to 77, .75 east of 77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, JoshM said: Great Lakes Low and no HP up north Here's a better view from PSU of the sfc high on the NAM with NE sfc winds...can see it on Pivotal Weather as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The RAH discussion matches up well to what I posted about the SREF plumes. If future model runs concur, temperature will become a factor, especially in the climatologically favored piedmont transition zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, JoshM said: Great Lakes Low and no HP up north Looking at contours, there's 1030+ mb high pressure sandwiched between GL low and our low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 NAM wouldn't be that cold if it didn't get a good cold push in place ahead of the storm...so it looks fine for the areas outlined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Clark Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 GSP Disco .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Tuesday...The main focus this period will be on the possible winter event Friday night and Saturday. Models agree on a system during this timeframe and that there will be some snow, but the details of how much and where are still uncertain. The 12z GFS has the coldest solution with mainly snow but the precipitation is the lightest. The 12z runs of the ECMWF and Canadian models have heavier precipitation but start it off as rain in the Piedmont before transitioning to snow. GFS ensemble runs also run the gamet in amounts due to similar differences. Plan to go with all snow in the mountains with an initial rain/snow mix in the Piedment becoming all snow Friday evening. Right now am thinking accumulations of 1-3 inches but this could change significantly with later forecasts. The storm will quickly depart Saturday afternoon with cold high pressure building in for the weekend into the first half of next week. Expect highs in the 20s and 30s and lows in the teens to around 20 Sunday and Monday. These readings may be a little colder if there is actually snow on the ground. Temperatures will begin to moderate some by Tuesday but conditions are expected to remain dry after Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 ^ Yeah, Grit, that look is fine, assuming the low doesn't amp too much and draw in WAA. Like seeing HP over the top. Edit: doggone new page! This post is referring to the ewall map that Grit posted on the previous page. Edit2: Now I'm back on this page again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 FWIW, Tom Niziol @ TWC, just said he was concerned for significant snow from charlotte on up NE from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 MHX US National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 54 mins · 1/3/17 @ 3:05 PM: **These are our initial thoughts on the upcoming possible winter weather this weekend. Minor changes in track will greatly affect the current scenario.** A storm system will pass off the NC coast Friday night into Saturday and will initially bring a mix of rain and snow to the region. Then, rain will change to snow across inland portions of Eastern NC. The question remains where the rain/snow line will be, and how much of the precipitation falls as snow. We will keep you posted on the latest developments/changes over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: FWIW, Tom Niziol @ TWC, just said he was concerned for significant snow from charlotte on up NE from there. tell him we are more concerned than he is, ha. Going back to the Euro Ens Members, I count 28 of the 51 that have at least light snow accumulations (at least 2 inches) in some part of our forum (I'm focused more outside of the mtns)...with 11 that had areas of 6+ inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Here is a good look on how the energy *IMHO* is actually trending toward the GFS.....Look how much less interaction and how the 18z NAM is further south with energy vs like the euro.... 12z NAM 18z NAM I know its the silly NAM, and at HR84 for that matter, but I honestly feel like the euro is the outlier here...I really do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Canadian also showed the lakes low at 06z Saturday in nearly an identical spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 23 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Certainly not in the southern areas. Very true....I guess I mean further NW...sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 CAE keeps their thinking the same this evening .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Friday and Saturday: Isentropic lift will strengthen across the area on Friday as low pressure develops over the northern Gulf of Mexico and spreads deep layered moisture into the region. Rain is expected to increase in coverage during the day Friday, with the greatest chances across the upper CSRA and middle/northern Midlands. The surface low will cross the northern Florida peninsula and eject out into the Atlantic Friday night as a modified Arctic air mass spreads southeast across the area. Have raised PoPs in the forecast into the high chance or likely category Friday night into Saturday morning. There remains some uncertainty with respect to how quickly the cold air will advect in and how much precipitation will be in place as it does so, but model consensus supports a winter weather event across the area. While there could be some mixed precipitation Friday night, prefer to leave any mention of ice out of the forecast and just indicate rain mixing with and eventually changing over to snow from the northwest later Friday night into Saturday morning. Most of the area should experience snow Saturday morning, but have kept a rain/snow mix in for the eastern Midlands and lower CSRA in case the low tracks closer to the coast. MOS temperatures appear too warm on Saturday, as raw model output and soundings support considerably cooler temperatures. For now we show highs in the mid and upper 30s Saturday, but it`s very possible temperatures will remain nearly steady or fall below freezing through the day. While there is the potential for accumulating snowfall, it`s still too early to determine amounts. However, impacts to travel are possible across the area. The precipitation ends rather quickly Saturday afternoon as the low pulls away to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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