packfan98 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 EPS looks much like the OP as far as the axis of heaviest snows. The mean went up to just over 2 inches in the axis that got the heaviest snows on the op. This comes after very little on the 0z EPS run. Looks like much better agreement with the Euro. Hopefully we can get a clearer picture by this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 EPS mean looks much better for NC folks. RDU mean is 2-2.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 12z EPS still all over the place but mean is pointing to NE NC/SE VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Looks like the EPS supports some phasing and it climbs the coast to get the MA crew in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, ajr said: 12z EPS still all over the place but mean is pointing to NE NC/SE VA Climo would heavily support this map, and it does resemble the operational quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I also want to throw this out there...NO models did very good with this latest storm rainfall amounts...just saying...the models are ALL struggling. CMC did the best I believe..hahaaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I counted about 18 out of 50 that gives the I-85 corridor in NC at least 2 inches. Seems encouraging. Lets see what happens over the next 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Via Brad P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Looking at the eps precip.shield it doesn't support.the op really at all. Looks more gfs/cmc/ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, deltadog03 said: I also want to throw this out there...NO models did very good with this latest storm rainfall amounts...just saying...the models are ALL struggling. CMC did the best I believe..hahaaha Yeah that's a good point. I was thinking about that earlier. I'm not concerned about any qpf output 4 days out. My first and foremost concern is always, always temps. They tend to get out of line in a hurry in the SE and all you got left is little lambsydivey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, deltadog03 said: I also want to throw this out there...NO models did very good with this latest storm rainfall amounts...just saying...the models are ALL struggling. CMC did the best I believe..hahaaha Above normal gulf waters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I ask this, anyone thought about convective feedback possibilities and choking out some moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah that's a good point. I was thinking about that earlier. I'm not concerned about any qpf output 4 days out. My first and foremost concern is always, always temps. They tend to get out of line in a hurry in the SE and all you got left is little lambsydivey. We're always on the same page there CR. Verbatim, the Euro Ens Mean looks fine. It's has a nice track off the Carolina coast for both of our areas...but it was warmer than it's last run, just like the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, deltadog03 said: I ask this, anyone thought about convective feedback possibilities and choking out some moisture? I don't worry about that until I know the cold air and a system will be there. Seems to be the last 24 hours and radar watching is when that talk starts. It's the least of our worries at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, deltadog03 said: I ask this, anyone thought about convective feedback possibilities and choking out some moisture? I actually asked that earlier sir but didnt get any response. GFS had that big blob traversing FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, deltadog03 said: I ask this, anyone thought about convective feedback possibilities and choking out some moisture? I see this as more of a light to moderate event as opposed to a big dog that is slowing down and winding up....also, it's not a setup that supports a long fetch of extended overrunning from New Mexico to NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, packfan98 said: I don't worry about that until I know the cold air and a system will be there. Seems to be the last 24 hours and radar watching is when that talk starts. It's the least of our worries at this point. Very true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, griteater said: I see this as more of a light to moderate event as opposed to a big dog that is slowing down and winding up....also, it's not a setup that supports a long fetch of extended overrunning from New Mexico to NC Good point. I didn't think about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 As been happening for the past few runs, half of the EPS members show nothing in the ATL area. 7 or so over 2", the rest trace-1. Not impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, deltadog03 said: I ask this, anyone thought about convective feedback possibilities and choking out some moisture? Good point Delta......this screws the upstate of SC almost every winter storm above a nuisance level coming out of the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I see this going to a really non event in the N. Foothills. I said all along if anybody does any good in NC it will be from RDU east. That's my forecast and I'm sticking to it. Until 12z tomorrow, then we'll see if any changes are needed. Good luck down South and East!!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 FINALLY more separation on the 18z NAM near the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: FINALLY more separation on the 18z NAM near the end. Looks to have a little more neutral trough axis too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: I see this going to a really non event in the N. Foothills. I said all along if anybody does any good in NC it will be from RDU east. That's my forecast and I'm sticking to it. Until 12z tomorrow, then we'll see if any changes are needed. Good luck down South and East!!! Funny, cause the area I like the most right now is NW Piedmont and N Foothills...up into Jonathon's area. Bump this post later and rub it in when you are correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, packfan98 said: Looks to have a little more neutral trough axis too. it's trying to phase with the arctic jet. First NAM run showing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Funny, cause the area I like the most right now is NW Piedmont and N Foothills...up into Jonathon's area. Bump this post later and rub it in when you are correct Has anyone checked the WPC prediction maps lately? Usually they have an area that's at least 100 miles NW of what the models are showing highlighted as the one to get the most snow. In this case, it would be Big Frostyland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, SN_Lover said: it's trying to phase with the arctic jet. First NAM run showing this. That's what we need. That slows it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Funny, cause the area I like the most right now is NW Piedmont and N Foothills...up into Jonathon's area. Bump this post later and rub it in when you are correct Ok, you know a lot more than I do! We'll see. Lol. Appreciate all the analysis! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, Wow said: That's what we need. That slows it down. Why the GFS is so cold and Euro is warmer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Are we poised to see one of those epic NAM runs sometime over the next 2 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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