ryanconway63 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 what time does the GFS ensemble get rolling.....interesting to see what it shows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, TiltedStorm said: Just a general questions. Why doesn't local mets talk more about the UKMET. It's all about the GFS and Euro. Always wondered why. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The UKMET is known as the crazy uncle for a reason It's a good supporting cast once you get past the initial crazyness of it at times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 If you use the "NavGEM rule" based on its 12Z run it would most definitely indicate the GFS/Euro are slightly too far south and east for places like AL/GA and potentially WAY too south and east for eastern SC/NC/VA. The UKIE could be onto something for sure if you use the typical NavGEM tendency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: I second this. Technically the euro swapped places with the gfs which means the gfs sniffed out a good NC snow first.. gfs has a suppression bias in this timeframe so no surprise it's suppressed. Look for it to tick back NW throughout the next several runs. To me GFS has had a great handle on this storm... euro not so much it tried to sell the suppressed looks for days while gfs insisted on a snowy look The gfs has been all over the place. It has to have some consistency. At least the Euro for the most part has. Also the Ukie has been very consistent but once the wave actually enters the West coast that could mean even more adjusting. Time will tell but all in fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 If the Euro were to inch North and show a bomb, this place would blow up ! Like 10 pages in a minute! Here's to hoping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Clear difference in the wave amplification over the SE. UK would work for upstate to Charlotte, but we couldn't afford any more NW correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: The gfs has been all over the place. It has to have some consistency. At least the Euro for the most part has. Also the Ukie has been very consistent but once the wave actually enters the West coast that could mean even more adjusting. Time will tell but all in fun. I'm curious to see how much of a shift we get once the energy comes ashore. The few runs after that is our normal time for the usual NW trend I like our chances though with the gfs showing it's typical suppression. This euro run will be very telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Like the EPS, only about half of the GEFS members have much of a storm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Clear difference in the amplification here. UK would work for upstate to Charlotte, but we couldn't afford any more NW correction. Grit, with us basically all but totally losing the -NAO block, wouldn't a more suppressed track be sort of...odd? Not wishcasting by any means but I've wondered how everything (including the NS energy for that matter) is being forced so far south without a solid Greenland block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: I'm curious to see how much of a shift we get once the energy comes ashore. The few runs after that is our normal time for the usual NW trend I like our chances though with the gfs showing it's typical suppression. This euro run will be very telling Yes that will be very interesting and too see if the other models waver once the wave hits the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: Grit, with us basically all but totally losing the -NAO block, wouldn't a more suppressed track be sort of...odd? Not wishcasting by any means but I've wondered how everything (including the NS energy for that matter) is being forced so far south without a solid Greenland block. I'm not Grit, but the ridge in the west plays a role, I do believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, Jonathan said: Grit, with us basically all but totally losing the -NAO block, wouldn't a more suppressed track be sort of...odd? Not wishcasting by any means but I've wondered how everything (including the NS energy for that matter) is being forced so far south without a solid Greenland block. It's simply one of those thread the needle cases. Northern stream swings thru the Great Lakes and the southern wave tracks right behind and is only allowed to climb north so much. Good example of how we get winter storms without a big block....they do happen....but there's just a tight timing window for it to work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Poimen said: I'm not Grit, but the ridge in the west plays a role, I do believe. Yes, that's a big help as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 14 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: what time does the GFS ensemble get rolling.....interesting to see what it shows... The mean looks like the ukie and more amped than the control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 UK has that very mixture look for Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: UK has that very mixture look for Raleigh. If its a stronger storm more north it would sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: UK has that very mixture look for Raleigh. Good! It has that rainy look for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: UK has that very mixture look for Raleigh. Go Big or Go Home. Lol its a warented risk no doubt you'll get waa and face mixing issues if you get a deepening miller A track in the SE. I'd cash in on the 12z canadian middle ground look but the gfs super seppressed ain't gonna cut it here unless it rides the gulf coast shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: UK has that very mixture look for Raleigh. I don't have any maps. Does it show any CAD or is it straight up miller A? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 11 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Grit, with us basically all but totally losing the -NAO block, wouldn't a more suppressed track be sort of...odd? Not wishcasting by any means but I've wondered how everything (including the NS energy for that matter) is being forced so far south without a solid Greenland block. Don't think I actually addressed your main question above. I'd say what is forcing everything so far south is 1) the 'Jon' EPO block, and 2) the big low that rotates through E Canada in a couple of days (this is the feature that the UKMet was first to key on to get us into this position)....those 2 things are combining to force the height pattern south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: I don't have any maps. Does it show any CAD or is it straight up miller A? Only looks like a Miller A to me. Only saw the maps posted here. Doesn't look like the banana high is in place, but there is a decent high farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Only looks like a Miller A to me. Only saw the maps posted here. Doesn't look like the banana high is in place, but there is a decent high farther west. That could be a killer(in terms of snow) for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Good! It has that rainy look for me! I'm not sure about that. It appears it turns the corner pretty late, its an odd track from what I see. I think more people in SC/GA stay south on that setup than you'd think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The canadian is very, very cold after the event. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I'm not sure about that. It appears it turns the corner pretty late, its an odd track from what I see. I think more people in SC/GA stay south on that setup than you'd think yeah UKMet looks fine for GSP I thought....but temp troubles for parts of E NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: The canadian is very, very cold after the event. Wow. We talking zero degree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 22 minutes ago, griteater said: Clear difference in the wave amplification over the SE. UK would work for upstate to Charlotte, but we couldn't afford any more NW correction. Which works into the biases of each of these models. UKMET tends to amplify, but has been consistent. GFS has always been known as the suppressor, following the footsteps of its predecessor, the MRF. UKMET is a straight up Miller A that'll change E NC, SC, GA from snow to rain as it phases over the the SE and WAA draws up. But big, big, for the western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 ^ Fine details, but you could argue that the UKMet sfc low would actually be a little to the SE of where it is shown on that map (i.e. it would be along the inverted trough line) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: The canadian is very, very cold after the event. Wow. It threw out a run like that a few days ago?? Single digit lows and below freezing for like 3 days!!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 12Z 00Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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