SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Ended by a nice rain shower on the 10th. I don't think models have a clue to what's going on. Even ensembles are all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 It probably ends up that way! Y'all get 1-3" from the clipper and then rain Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, Met1985 said: I think it will take longer than 24 hours to iron things out. Agree, atleast 48 if not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 GFS all over the place today. But looks like all the runs have had at least some snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 This storm gonna be a train wreck, just like Mariah Carey's lip sync performance just now! That was painful to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: This storm gonna be a train wreck, just like Mariah Carey's lip sync performance just now! That was painful to watch Make 2016 go away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Make 2016 go away It will.... in about 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 UK panels 120-138 look very similar to GFS, little sharper and a tick west. I can't see the surface but would think it's OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Happy new Euro everybody! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 20 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: This storm gonna be a train wreck, just like Mariah Carey's lip sync performance just now! That was painful to watch My gosh it was...why did they keep her going like that? Everything went from cool rain to cold and dry now. I know actual suppression is rarely an issue for us, but that's what's being sold to us at this point. I hate having to have faith in models changing for the better. I know they'll change but, meh. Ukmet has been showing cold but dry the whole time, or leading up to it. Can't help but wonder if that's the story for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 GEFS looks great for first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 0z GEFS *crickets* For good reason.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Lol at above 2 posts. That's about like the models are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 0z BUFKIT gave hickory 4.3" off .21 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 15 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: 0z BUFKIT gave hickory 4.3" off .21 QPF I can live with those ratios.... Looks to be about right with 850's below -10C. I could clean my sidewalk and driveway with a leaf blower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Need the radar to look like it does tonight next saturday night. Been a long time since we've seen moisture coming up out of the gom like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 32 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: 0z BUFKIT gave hickory 4.3" off .21 QPF Just think another tenth qpf and it's a half footer almost seasonal climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 24 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Just think another tenth qpf and it's a half footer almost seasonal climo Will Euro be far enough out for our first wave, by 2, or will it be just starting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Crazy models swings over the past few days. Euro isn't burying the wave off the Oregon coast this run. It's phasing in some northern stream energy out west and overrunning snow breaks out from Missouri to PA at 123. It may get a little colder down the road though with more overrunning later as a positive tilt trough is digging into the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 This time could be different, but I seems like we often hope for impressive ratios and they rarely pan out for varying reasons in our region, even when modeled. Of course, there have been exceptions like January 2003, so it's obviously possible. Anyways, Euro time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Jma/JB east coast storm idea not dead yet. Here it comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Euro shows the 850 freezing line in the mountains with the low right over myrtle at hour 144. I expect that would be rain for those of us in central NC. Still a long way to go, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Should have added east coast to JB is code for MA. Euro cold chasing moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Euro is back to it's solution from a few days ago. System one is a rainer with light snows to the NW of our region. It then gets a little colder in time and there's some very light snow that moves through central AL to Raleigh area....very little though. The solutions are all over the place right now, but only a small percentage are delivering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Euro is back to it's solution from a few days ago. System one is a rainer with light snows to the NW of our region. It then gets a little colder in time and there's some very light snow that moves through central AL to Raleigh area....very little though. The solutions all over the place right now, but only a small percentage are delivering I was heartened after both the CMC and the GFS OP runs showed the same Thursday/Friday light system across most of NC but the EURO isn't buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Just now, Tarheel17 said: I was heartened after both the CMC and the GFS OP runs showed the same Thursday/Friday light system across most of NC but the EURO isn't buying it. Nevermind, CMC is showing a system on Saturday the GFS shows the Thursday one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 There's our sw flow back. Problem is with trough orientation takes 2 long to get cold in here. Bet 100 it's ens are more cold suppressed verse this . This will be outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: There's our sw flow back. Problem is with trough orientation takes 2 long to get cold in here. Bet 100 it's ens are more cold suppressed verse this . This will be outlier The solutions that are diving the northern stream east into the big E Canada low are hanging the Pac wave off the west coast...so you get cold high pressure and maybe the weak, northern stream wave one system, but no good second system. The solutions that are diving the northern stream west like tonight's Euro are bringing out the Pac wave, but are warm with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 The only positive solutions I've seen tonight are the GFS/GFS Ensemble with the weak northern stream system light snows, but no 2nd system....and the CMC/CMC Ensemble with no snow from the initial northern stream system, but a second weak system with light snows as the Pac wave kicks out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 We continue the hunt, but our percentages for something working out remain low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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