Poimen Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 There's a para NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, Cary_Snow95 said: If GFS caves I'm gonna puke Historically the GFS rarely caves this early when its a hold out. I've seen it not cave until 48 hours before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The NAM has been much better in the last year. It still has some horrible moments, but its generally more trustworthy now than it was 18 month or 2 years ago. Its interesting the new parallel NAM though looks exactly like the GFS. yea, also keep in mind the para gfs has been in lockstep w/ the op gfs the past 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 You can tell who's been tracking storms for a long time and who hasn't. We're still at least FIVE days out in the Carolinas, guys. I wouldnt be shocked to see the GFS move greatly toward the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, Poimen said: There's a para NAM? Had no idea either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: We've got the match, we just need to get a spark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I would mention that the 18z NAM at the end of the run did weaken the wave much more so than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 National Weather Service Norman OK Although yesterday the GFS ensemble members were generally matching their operational counterpart, today there are a few members bailing on the consensus and showing the strong surface ridge similar to the ECMWF/Canadian solution around 00Z/Saturday. Again have gone on the cooler side of the guidance envelope, but there is still plenty of uncertainty. Just wanted to throw that out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 12 minutes ago, deltadog03 said: I will say this...the NAM is doing an absolutely AWFUL job right now in the short term. Does it mean anything? Heck IDK.... the 6 hour rain totals.. (0z to 6z) so about another 3 hours worth...it has me only getting maybe .30" of rain at most....I am at .85" since 6pm or so.... storm total just over 6" Yep, from what I've seen and heard from other people that live in that area the NAM really missed on precip totals through central and south GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 We've got the match, we just need to get a spark. And our matchbook is wet.Seriously think the GFS moves even closer to the Euro. Hate the trends, even if it remotely stays the same I'd be shocked. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I think the real key is what does the 0z euro do tonight after we see the GFS--stay the course? It could still shift as well but getting doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, Jon said: And our matchbook is wet. Seriously think the GFS moves even closer to the Euro. Hate the trends, even if it remotely stays the same I'd be shocked. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The way things have gone we could see a full collapse to the euro then back to a better system the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: The way things have gone we could see a full collapse to the euro then back to a better system the next few days. As hard as this is to make sense of, IMO a full collapse now is better than the GFS holding ground and no change from the Euro. IMO, in that case the GFS will eventually cave late and the event probably is nothing. If it caves now and the Euro does not go any more south or suppressed it opens the door for adjustment north later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: As hard as this is to make sense of, IMO a full collapse now is better than the GFS holding ground and no change from the Euro. IMO, in that case the GFS will eventually cave late and the event probably is nothing. If it caves now and the Euro does not go any more south or suppressed it opens the door for adjustment north later. Exactly. I agree 100% If we are working towards the Euro then cave this run then we watch for small adjustments for the next 4 to 5 days. Will be better like you said than a meet in the middle I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: As hard as this is to make sense of, IMO a full collapse now is better than the GFS holding ground and no change from the Euro. IMO, in that case the GFS will eventually cave late and the event probably is nothing. If it caves now and the Euro does not go any more south or suppressed it opens the door for adjustment north later. BINGO!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, Met1985 said: The way things have gone we could see a full collapse to the euro then back to a better system the next few days. Yep. We been down this road countless times. Very highly likely gfs caves into euro or vice versa soon. Then we'll get another twist most likely wed night thurs. Don't get to down if we get left with a weak as pond water 2cnd wave after tonight's runs. The warm sst's and the whole multiple case studies on last second isentrophic lift suprises in Carolina snowstorm case studies is a ace in the hole that may save the day at the end and turn a 2 to 3 inch event into a 4 to 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 just saying...through hr 12...GFS doing an awful job around here with rain amounts.... just an awful job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 GFS heading westward with wave through hr 18...lets see where this goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 National Weather Service Norman OK Although yesterday the GFS ensemble members were generally matching their operational counterpart, today there are a few members bailing on the consensus and showing the strong surface ridge similar to the ECMWF/Canadian solution around 00Z/Saturday. Again have gone on the cooler side of the guidance envelope, but there is still plenty of uncertainty. Just wanted to throw that out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Through 24 hours the 0z is looking similar to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Wave looks futher west than 18z off the coast imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Guys we have seen this before with the Euro. There have been other storms where it held out till the last couple of days and then folded or changed course at the end. It really isn't that uncommon. Will it happen this time? Who knows. The Euro isn't the all knowing, and this is still nearly 5 days out for the Carolinas. I seriously doubt any model has reached it's final run (or even anything close) including the Euro. There are some indications of the GFS and CMC trending more towards the NAM in the last couple of runs, but I would not put too much into that until at least Wed or even Thurs. Who knows, maybe the Euro wins and we get the shaft, but panicking on Monday evening seems a little silly. We know the 12z GFS is so unlikely it isn't even worth a Lloyd Christmas meme, but there are some ingredients to watch here. Heck, some systems the models never seem to figure out - didn't we have one last winter that no model ever got a handle on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 looks similar out to 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The 546dm contour filled in earlier but the northern stream is the same as the 18z.. It may stick with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Northern stream appears** as of now** to miss pulling that energy in with it hr 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Wave come on shore in Oregon at 42. Looks good so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 GFS looks identical to 18z to me with respect to the kicker s/w dropping down. I think it's going to be another good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, Wow said: The 546dm contour filled in earlier but the northern stream is the same as the 18z.. It may stick with it I agree...we shall see where this goes, but its not pulling it over the northern stream yet** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Wave looks like it's fixing to get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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