SnowNiner Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 18 minutes ago, griteater said: I like the fact that the UKMet moved in a good direction today so it's not the GFS completely on its own Any idea on qpf being put out on the ukmet? I thought it was very light like the euro. Hopefully the 18z wasn't a blip toward the euro, hopefully they both meet in the middle....and I get 6 inches of snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 what i see now on the water vapor loop is a broad area of circulation near the coasts of washington and oregon spinning off impulses from it sw but not really moving.....hasnt really moved since yesterday only seems to expand and moved slightly west........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Navgem too...it just weakens and progresses the low so it still misses. The Euro is probably closest to the NavGEM idea right now. In general, when beyond 96 hours, whatever model is closest to the NavGEM is usually wrong. Inside of 96 or so you can start looking at the NavGEM to gain a sense if other models are too progressive or amped. In this event for example, nobody in GA or SC wants to see the NavGEM tomorrow night or Wednesday morning look like the GFS now, because that would likely mean this thing is coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Hopefully we get a alignment to one solution in the next few runs or days. This is the spread in the 500mb heights at 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Any idea on qpf being put out on the ukmet? I thought it was very light like the euro. Hopefully the 18z wasn't a blip toward the euro, hopefully they both meet in the middle....and I get 6 inches of snow..What I liked most about it was how it cleared the northern stream and put the damming high in place at hr 120 and has some stream separation, just not as sharp with the PAC wave as GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 35 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Hopefully we get a alignment to one solution in the next few runs or days. This is the spread in the 500mb heights at 120 hours. GFS is really on its own there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Man does it feel good to be back here (sorry for the long absence but I have had a lot of personal stuff going on (all good for a change ))) and this is a good way to bring in 2017. I am hoping for either EC, E3, E15, or E19 to shut my granddad up since he has been whining about not having snow yet this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 18z Arpege looks good to me at 60hrs(that's as far out as it goes). Lots of stream separation and our s/w is still in tact. The Euro/CMC have already flattened it out at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: 18z Arpege looks good to me at 60hrs(that's as far out as it goes). Lots of stream separation and our s/w is still in tact. The Euro/CMC have already flattened it out at this point. at 60 hours that model shows a low where one is sitting right now on the oregon coast.......there could be many impulses moving along the southern edge of the cold air press that is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 15 minutes ago, ajr said: GFS is really on its own there.. Is there any reason (other than wish-casting) to believe that the GFS isn't just off its rocker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, cbmclean said: Is there any reason (other than wish-casting) to believe that the GFS isn't just off its rocker? It's anyone's guess really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Is there any reason (other than wish-casting) to believe that the GFS isn't just off its rocker? The RGEM and NAM at 48 hours both differ from the Euro. They show more stream separation. NAM is pretty good inside 48 hours too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, ajr said: It's anyone's guess really Not even the NWS knows for sure...(for my town anyway since they issued this as part of the forecast discussion): "There is potential for wintry precipitation over the weekend but details are limited at this time." Never in my life have I seen the NWS say that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: Not even the NWS knows for sure...(for my town anyway since they issued this as part of the forecast discussion): "There is potential for wintry precipitation over the weekend but details are limited at this time." Never in my life have I seen the NWS say that.... You can't be very old. It is a fairly standard statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Justanobody said: 18Z GFS has a low of 4 at KATL, looks like this would be because of snow cover... There's three things that are sure in life: 1. Death 2. Taxes 3. Models showing ridiculously cold overnight lows due to snowcover which never verify, Bottom line is that it may get cold after the possible storm, but I wouldn't bet on it being as cold as the GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 When will the wave in question be properly sampled and incorporated? 0z Wed? It must suck living on the west coast and having all these poorly sampled waves just show up on land and produce who knows what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The RGEM and NAM at 48 hours both differ from the Euro. They show more stream separation. NAM is pretty good inside 48 hours too. I like having the RGEM in line with the NAM. Not sure what it's actual verification scores are but I remember it handling previous systems fairly well. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 16 minutes ago, burrel2 said: 18z Arpege looks good to me at 60hrs(that's as far out as it goes). Lots of stream separation and our s/w is still in tact. The Euro/CMC have already flattened it out at this point. Comparing the locations of the height lines in MT with the GFS, it's very similar.. maybe a hair more west but nowhere near the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: When will the wave in question be properly sampled and incorporated? 0z Wed? It must suck living on the west coast and having all these poorly sampled waves just show up on land and produce who knows what. Isn't sampling usually said to be overrated as a factor in this day and age with satellites, etc., though? I feel like we use it to wishcast storms which are slipping away, as much as anything, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, superjames1992 said: Isn't sampling usually said to be overrated as a factor in this day and age with satellites, etc., though? I feel like we use it to wishcast storms which are slipping away, as much as anything, Agreed! It's grasping at straws, when that phrase starts getting thrown around! Webberweather, has been mentioning that a lot though, the last day or two. I thing they are supposed to be onshore by Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, superjames1992 said: Isn't sampling usually said to be overrated as a factor in this day and age with satellites, etc., though? I feel like we use it to wishcast storms which are slipping away, as much as anything, It makes a difference IMO. We saw a storm a few winters ago that forecasts did a complete 180 once the responsible shortwave came ashore. The December 2010 event was also impacted by a shortwave that wasn't sampled well over far north Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Still believe the final solution is middle ground on a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 11 minutes ago, Wow said: Comparing the locations of the height lines in MT with the GFS, it's very similar.. maybe a hair more west but nowhere near the Euro. And I believe arpege has a lot of Euro components in it. Could be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted January 3, 2017 Author Share Posted January 3, 2017 Moderators...I am not sure if you are able to or not, but feel free to change title of thread to match the dates of the ensuing weather. Or you can tell me what you need it changed to.Sent from my VS990 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said: Moderators...I am not sure if you are able to or not, but feel free to change title of thread to match the dates of the ensuing weather. Or you can tell me what you need it changed to. Sent from my VS990 using Tapatalk Edit your original post and you should be able to change the title there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Not sure if it was talked about, but 12Z JMA looked good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Come on SEVA, we're due! Only got 2 inches last year in Hampton, VA for the HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Can anyone provide an update on 0z NAM run so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Can anyone provide an update on 0z NAM run so far? Don't even bother with the NAM outside of 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Coach McGuirk said: Don't even bother with the NAM outside of 48 hours. We're interested in the progression of the wave within 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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