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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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Yep just as I expected sweet spot is south of RDU and eastern NC, just based off the 500mb vorticity and shortwave dig you can tell where the maximum will end up. I hope the Euro bites tonight.

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2 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said:

For GA I like this run MUCH better.  850's are no issue and ICE is not nearly as much of a threat.

 

Atlanta and north stays almost all snow. Dream run. 850's look great for North Georgia. As you say, we avoid the catastrophic ice.

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1 minute ago, jrips27 said:

 

Atlanta and north stays almost all snow. Dream run. 850's look great for North Georgia. As you say, we avoid the catastrophic ice.

Just need the euro to come on board.  I have seen though where the gfs has won the snowstorm battle over the euro.

 

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OK, so here's the deal. As the vort exits Rockies into the Plains, it is slightly less sharp on the 18z vs. the 12z. This is largely due to it 'feeling' the effects of the northern branch more this run. 

The net result this time around is a system that is a little further south, slightly weaker, and colder compared to the 12z. 

Here's the cause for concern. You can clearly see there is much more trough interaction with the northern branch trough and our vort at hour 120 on the 18z vs. the 12z. This could possibly be an indication that this is beginning to lean in the direction of the Euro scenario of the trough coming out in one piece.

Maybe, maybe not. But to me, it's a warning shot. 

GFS3.png

GFS4.png

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GFS6.png

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6 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

Time for Greenvile, NC to jackpot this run I think.

5 days out jackpotting is a bad thing. Not to mention this morning we good then at 12z not so much now back to being good. Meanwhile this model is the one most meteorological offices are really not putting much weight behind. Nothing to get excited about IMO until the other models start hinting at this type of solution with no real northern trends.

 

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OK, so here's the deal. As the vort exits Rockies into the Plains, it is slightly less sharp on the 18z vs. the 12z. This is largely due to it 'feeling' the effects of the northern branch more this run. 

The net result this time around is a system that is a little further south, slightly weaker, and colder compared to the 12z. 

Here's the cause for concern. You can clearly see there is much more trough interaction with the northern branch trough and our vort at hour 120 on the 18z vs. the 12z. This could possibly be an indication that this is beginning to lean in the direction of the Euro scenario of the trough coming out in one piece.

Maybe, maybe not. But to me, it's a warning shot.


Thanks for the thoughts Matt!


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