Lookout Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Jon said: Ok 18z NAM just started running that's my B. Let's all get along friends! Yeah lets get back on topic folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 For model verification...the differences we are looking at are all at day 3'ish and the models are all fairly close skill wise at this range. This comes into bias's and will be interesting to see who is correct, or if it truly is a blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 FWIW the SREF is identical to the GFS with the NW s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 17 minutes ago, chapelhillwx said: You don't get to just change the mean around to fit your narrative like that. You could just as easily say anything below 2 inches is a low outlier and take those out instead. True. The median is probably a better measure for our purposes. And maybe the 10th and 90th percentiles to get an idea of what range we're looking at. Maybe the mode, too, if we do some rounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Newport NWS office came out with a piece in their afternoon disco but they aren't really changing much in their long range forecast. As of 215 PM Mon...Made very little change late in week to weekend. Huge model diff cont with GFS showing storm force winds coast and heavy snow inland Sat Night into Sun while ECMWF show a much faster/weaker/drier low Fri night into Sat. Fcst is still closer to ECMWF with small chc of some poss frozen precip inland late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 KGSP's afternoon discussion for this weekend. They're using the Euro as model of choice at this point owing to it's run to run consistency. Still good to see them mentioning the threat. They play it close to the vest, as they should. Hope it pans out and Tigers have to take early flight to Tampa.... As of 215 PM EST Monday...The threat of wintry pcpn is continuing to take shape acrs the southern Appalachians during the first half of the period. Have made adjustments to increase pcpn chances on Thursday night into Saturday morning given the preferred 12Z ECMWF and WPC extended range guidance, all with a fair amount of blended model support, in progging energy and potential pcpn shield moving up the front side of conus l/wv trough. At this juncture...thermal profiles would limit p-type to either rain or snow. Likely all snow in the NC mtns to rain/snow piedmont, maybe ending as a period of all snow as colder air plunges SE. Also at this point in the game, QPF is looking to limit accums to the advisory range. Plenty of time to tweak this forecast so stay tuned. For the latter half of the period, it is looking dry and chilly with deep l/wv trough axis translating acrs the ern conus and strong sfc ridging building atop the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avalanche Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 RAH has mentioned the GFS as the outlier, and they are going with an early onset of a chance of rain/snow mix Friday night, and a general light rain Saturday, and then clearing out by Sat night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 13 minutes ago, packbacker said: For model verification...the differences we are looking at are all at day 3'ish and the models are all fairly close skill wise at this range. This comes into bias's and will be interesting to see who is correct, or if it truly is a blend. Looking at those numbers seems like splitting hairs between the top models (UK, GFS, CMC, ECM) - I'm curious which model does best in this situation, but my guess is that data doesn't explicitly exist. While the GFS is the outlier, I also don't like the "ECMWF is best therefore we'll go with it" line of logic either because it's a bit like taking the general and applying it to the specific, which may not necessarily be appropriate. Matthew East had an interesting point today that we had a similar setup a few months ago that the GFS picked up on before any of the other models. Just food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Brad P wants to go with a rain/wintry mix with maybe some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 EPS is even more weak/progressive then the Op for 2nd wave. It's actually trended much stronger with the first wave and actually hits the NE fairly good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Based on what I'm reading here the narrative from the pro mets is the gfs will cave to the euro maybe not today but by 72hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, ajr said: Looking at those numbers seems like splitting hairs between the top models (UK, GFS, CMC, ECM) - I'm curious which model does best in this situation, but my guess is that data doesn't explicitly exist. While the GFS is the outlier, I also don't like the "ECMWF is best therefore we'll go with it" line of logic either because it's a bit like taking the general and applying it to the specific, which may not necessarily be appropriate. Matthew East had an interesting point today that we had a similar setup a few months ago that the GFS picked up on before any of the other models. Just food for thought. Good point and I hope the GFS scores a winner, it's certainly possible! However, I think the pro mets are relying on the ECM in this case because it has been relatively consistent where as the GFS has jumped all over the place. The 12 GFS would be a Jan 88 redeaux for these parts. Snow with temps in upper teens followed by brutal cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, packbacker said: EPS is even more weak/progressive then the Op for 2nd wave. It's actually trended much stronger with the first wave and actually hits the NE fairly good. Lol hard to go against that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 EPS seems to be a rainy look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Thru 39 hrs, the NAM is in line with the 12z GFS wrt to the s/w location and strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, fritschy said: I hope the euro caves to the gfs for a change. We are still too far out really to trust any one model. More or less this is close to 120 hours, thats way too far out. If this was 84 hours I'd be more sure the Euro is more likely correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: We are still too far out really to trust any one model. More or less this is close to 120 hours, thats way too far out. If this was 84 hours I'd be more sure the Euro is more likely correct. I think we'd know pretty well what the outcome will be with the status of the s/w out west within 84 hrs currently. Euro already has it quick weak and shearing out while the GFS has a closed contour system moving down by 84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: It did with the last event we had here In reality, neither will probably be correct and the truth will either be somewhere in the middle or something completely different. We're still a ways out from this potential event. This time period is always the most difficult part of following these storms. So many models runs with so many specifics, but in reality it's still just too far away to really get into specifics. I think the most important thing is that the storm just continues to show up on all the modeling in some form of fashion, and that there is sufficient cold air in place. If we start seeing the models crush the storm, or send it up the west side of the Apps, that would would obviously be reason for alarm, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 18 minutes ago, packbacker said: EPS is even more weak/progressive then the Op for 2nd wave. It's actually trended much stronger with the first wave and actually hits the NE fairly good. Kind of 2 ways to look at it. On one hand, agree it's more suppressed than it's previous run...the NS is just out ahead of the trailing Pac wave and is suppressing the secondary wave even more (2nd wave can't sharpen). On the other hand, the NS being more out ahead was a trend to where we want the Euro to go...faster with NS, slower with Pac wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: I think we'd know pretty well what the outcome will be with the status of the s/w out west within 84 hrs currently. Euro already has it quick weak and shearing out while the GFS has a closed contour system moving down by 84 hrs. I know the NAM at 84 is highly suspect but what does it show in terms of agreement with either GFS or Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Yes...through 48 hours the NAM is more the like the GFS. Edit..through 54 hours, they look almost identical with respects to the major players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Kind of 2 ways to look at it. On one hand, agree it's more suppressed than it's previous run...the NS is just out ahead of the trailing Pac wave and is suppressing the secondary wave even more (2nd wave can't sharpen). On the other hand, the NS being more out ahead was a trend to where we want the Euro to go...faster with NS, slower with Pac wave I did not see the EPS, but someone said it gives NYC significant snow with the first wave which must mean its pretty amped up. The first wave being too amped will result in the 2nd wave being squashed completely in all likelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: I know the NAM at 84 is highly suspect but what does it show in terms of agreement with either GFS or Euro GFS... The Euro even at 24 hrs already had the northern wave further west already influencing our NW wave. I think we're going to see one of the camps fall in the next couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Kind of 2 ways to look at it. On one hand, agree it's more suppressed than it's previous run...the NS is just out ahead of the trailing Pac wave and is suppressing the secondary wave even more (2nd wave can't sharpen). On the other hand, the NS being more out ahead was a trend to where we want the Euro to go...faster with NS, slower with Pac wave Yep...was just looking at that. Hopefully tomorrow we find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I did not see the EPS, but someone said it gives NYC significant snow with the first wave which must mean its pretty amped up. The first wave being too amped will result in the 2nd wave being squashed completely in all likelihood. Isn't that playing to its bias, over amping systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I did not see the EPS, but someone said it gives NYC significant snow with the first wave which must mean its pretty amped up. The first wave being too amped will result in the 2nd wave being squashed completely in all likelihood. I was kind of thinking the opposite...the GFS/GEFS has been modeling that for sometime as it doesn't have that ULL hanging on it's back like the Euro does. But, that was a nice change on the EPS moving towards the GFS and does give s/e NE a nice event. The EPS does bring it further west then the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, tnweathernut said: Isn't that playing to its bias, over amping systems? Especially out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 At 48 hrs, the NAM is lockstep with the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 EPS was definitely a step backward. Very light amounts for the ENS Mean. I hope that's not the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: At 48 hrs, the NAM is lockstep with the 12z GFS. I know that it's the NAM.... but it should be at least factored in at 48h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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