NCSNOW Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, Lookout said: Good point...and this is the best time of year as far as sun angle goes. It's why i much rather have snow/ice this time of year than in feb or march..the potential for it to hang around on the ground a lot longer. +1000. Back end seasonal snows are gone faster than it takes them to accumulate. Been a long time since we had a dead of winter big sized event and got to enjoy for several days afterwards. Great chance here to get a 7 to 10 day stretch of true winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiftMania Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 12z Euro starting out very similar to 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 What's the JMA showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Great news, IMO! Hoes the temps? CMC is cold enough, just doesnt develop the Big Low as per GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiftMania Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: What's the JMA showing? Only out to 72 but looks similar to yesterday's 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiftMania Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 12z Euro out to 48 and mirroring the GFS. Will it hold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Out to 72 on Euro, ever so slight trend to get the northern stream out ahead of the Pac wave, but it's very slight...not separating the streams anything like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Out to 84, it has the suppressed, sheared look to it again. Not the separate Pac wave like the GFS. I think this will have trouble rounding the bend and producing a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiftMania Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, griteater said: Out to 72 on Euro, ever so slight trend to get the northern stream out ahead of the Pac wave, but it's very slight...not separating the streams anything like the GFS Looking at the 850 charts between the Euro and GFS they look the same. The Euro is slightly north and closer to the SC coast. What am I not seeing that causes the divergence at hr 84? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, griteater said: Out to 72 on Euro, ever so slight trend to get the northern stream out ahead of the Pac wave, but it's very slight...not separating the streams anything like the GFS Still letting the northern jet shred it up. So odd to see the Euro and GFS against their biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, RiftMania said: Looking at the 850 charts between the Euro and GFS they look the same. The Euro is slightly north and closer to the SC coast. What am I not seeing? The main difference is at 500 and how the two resolve the system that comes ashore in the PAC NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiftMania Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, Poimen said: The main difference is at 500. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Unbelievable that we have THIS much separation between these two models within 96 hours. Just goes to show the complexity of the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Euro is sticking to it's guns with a weak suppressed system riding the arctic front...light to very light snows from I-85 north and west. As wow mentioned, it just doesn't have the stream separation. A blend of UKMet/GFS/Euro isn't bad right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: Unbelievable that we have THIS much separation between these two models within 96 hours. Just goes to show the complexity of the pattern. Or how bad one of the models is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: Unbelievable that we have THIS much separation between these two models within 96 hours. Just goes to show the complexity of the pattern. Yep and likely won't figure out until Wed when the energy out west can be modeled within 60 hours or so on all models including mesoscale NAM. Hoping to figure it out sooner but not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Does anyone have an idea which model is superior to the other in regards to this type of setup, comparing them to previous setups? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Here's the 96 hour GFS/EC compared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Here's the 96 hour GFS/EC compared. Only slightly different. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: Unbelievable that we have THIS much separation between these two models within 96 hours. Just goes to show the complexity of the pattern. so typical of potential southeastern winter storms....would be nice to see for once the models latch on to a big storm solution and stick with it at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Euro gets some snow into E NC...more than to the west and southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 And the 120 comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 euro with 2" or so for rdu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avalanche Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro gets some snow into E NC...more than to the west and southwest Yes, and some of the GFS ensembles resembled that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On the bright side, if we split the difference between the GFS/EC...we're still looking at about 15" for RDU! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Poimen said: On the bright side, if we split the difference between the GFS/EC...we're still looking at about 15" for RDU! Very good point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Here is the Arpege at the end of it's 12z run. It looks similar to the Ukmet with timing and strength. I think this is a good compromise between the GFS solution vs. the CMC/Euro solutions. Verbatim, I think the Arpege and Ukmet are showing a nice 2 to 4 inch type event for most on this forum with a weak surface low tracking across the northern gulf. The good thing about these runs is, while weak, they are giving the first wave plenty of time to clear out and allow cold air to filter in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, Poimen said: On the bright side, if we split the difference between the GFS/EC...we're still looking at about 15" for RDU! In all seriousness, a blend isn't bad right now. Could be a lot worse. Throw the GFS Ens Mean and UKMet into the blender too. Looks like the CMC Ens Mean was a little more suppressed this run on the sfc charts, but looked a little better/sharper with the trough at h5...it's pretty cold overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I feel like late last Jan we had a disagreement between the Euro/GFS very similar to this one correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Can someone post the 12Z gefs snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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