SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: The Atlanta to Raleigh to shaggy folks would like this UKMet look at this time range....while the Big Frosty folks would like the GFS better In general the last 2-3 winters the UKMET has virtually always caught onto a system being more amped in the 120-144 hour range when the GFS/CMC/Euro are not. The one exception I remember was the mid February AL/NRN GA/SC/NC snow event in 2015 where it was also late to the party. So overall good news for now for southern area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 25 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: JB tweet GFS looks too far south to me as per usual bias. Its all over the place, next run something different Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk What is silly is his comment simply ignores all the other modeling that says this is a non-event for the midatlantic and points north ....and a much more minor event (than the GFS) for the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 GFS Ensemble Mean looks really, really good for a lot of folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 The cmc is about 12-18 hours faster than the gfs and shears the energy coming out of the pac nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Hard not to get excited with three out of four runs of the GFS showing the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Ryan Confidence increasing in major winter storm for Southeast including Atlanta this weekend. Snow, freezing rain, sleet, cats and dogs.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 GEFS snow mean has really increased. Much further south and east with its coverage. I would imagine some really good individual members that look similar to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I'll go ahead and predict the Euro will fall closer to the UKMET solution but could very well be wrong. The known model biases have flipped on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Really liking the surface track through central FL on the 12z GFS ens mean around day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, packfan98 said: GEFS snow mean has really increased. Much further south and east with its coverage. I would imagine some really good individual members that look similar to the op. I've seen individual panels and like the op several big dogs. But almost all hit NC pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 No consensus whatsoever but at least not many northern solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Ryan Confidence increasing in major winter storm for Southeast including Atlanta this weekend. Snow, freezing rain, sleet, cats and dogs. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Screenshot as worthy as the 12 z GFS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Great support from GEFS ensembles - at this range, the control is supposed to verify the best, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Interesting only about 3(?) NW of my position now and a couple of wonky ones (like #13). Otherwise all in all a decent hit for NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I get this whole every winter storm goes north and buries DC to BOS and I am sure it will. I am sure the super suppressed/progressive CMC/UK will come around but if the models are correct in building a W to N ridge behind the storm a more progressive low is favored, just depends on how far south it digs and strength of low. The GFS is on the strong end of the spectrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 CMC looks to have trended towards the GFS ever so slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: I get this whole every winter storm goes north and buries DC to BOS and I am sure it will. I am sure the super suppressed/progressive CMC/UK will come around but if the models are correct in building a W to N ridge behind the storm a more progressive low is favored, just depends on how far south it digs and weaker. The GFS is on the strong end of the spectrum. What do you mean when you say "more progressive?" Is the idea that a W to N ridge behind the storm will try to "shove" the storm further south/east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: I get this whole every winter storm goes north and buries DC to BOS and I am sure it will. I am sure the super suppressed/progressive CMC/UK will come around but if the models are correct in building a W to N ridge behind the storm a more progressive low is favored, just depends on how far south it digs and strength of low. The GFS is on the strong end of the spectrum. Pack, I just worry about the GFS in that usually with its tendencies during this timeframe, it tends to be more weak and suppressed usually. Will that 1040 MB High up near Montreal help to keep the storm track more suppressed or does this thing still have a chance to go negative even quicker and ride up right over us? Also, the Euro is doing the complete opposite that it usually does, whereas it ejects the western system out the fastest. Usually it has a tendency to hold back s/w the most. Has the upgrades changed these errors and biases from what we are accustomed to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 36 minutes ago, Wow said: A lot depends on the speed of the s/w. At 0z Jan 6, we find: 0z Euro: s/w is weaker and faster located in NV at the time -> strung out 0z GFS/12z NAM: slower [and/or] stronger and over W Oregon -> amped up and further north (at least with the 0z GFS) 18z, 6z, 12z GFS: in the middle of these solutions, located near SE Oregon -> money Exactly. This is really all I'm watching is that s/w digging and when it starts. I'm just wondering IF or when the Euro will show a slower, digging solution. Not sure if you saw the GIF link I posted earlier (on my twitter) but Euro trending towards more digging, just not enough, yet. Huge steps though for the last 2 days of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, packbacker said: I get this whole every winter storm goes north and buries DC to BOS and I am sure it will. I am sure the super suppressed/progressive CMC/UK will come around but if the models are correct in building a W to N ridge behind the storm a more progressive low is favored, just depends on how far south it digs and strength of low. The GFS is on the strong end of the spectrum. The trajectory of the jet behind the storm is roaring and really gonna make it almost impossible to turn north on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Something else to consider.. it's going to stay very cold for days after this storm. Per the GFS, I don't get above freezing until the following Wednesday, and not much above either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Pack, I just worry about the GFS in that usually with its tendencies during this timeframe, it tends to be more weak and suppressed usually. Will that 1040 MB High up near Montreal help to keep the storm track more suppressed or does this thing still have a chance to go negative even quicker and ride up right over us? Also, the Euro is doing the complete opposite that it usually does, whereas it ejects the western system out the fastest. Usually it has a tendency to hold back s/w the most. Has the upgrades changed these errors and biases from what we are accustomed to? Both models have there flaws, GFS may be to fast swinging that trough through and thus less interaction with ULL and thus your left with a progressive ULL digging and big storm. The Euro may be handling trough more correctly but to much interaction with ULL. Probably a blend is favored as the that's usually how it works. The fact that all the other models are weaker and more progressive shows a miss is still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: The trajectory of the jet behind the storm is roaring and really gonna make it almost impossible to turn north on us. User Actions Follow Severe Weather Blog@blizzardof96 Even if nudges N are possible, potential for N movement is capped given the 110-130kts H2 jet on backside. NW wind vectors push vort SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: Something else to consider.. it's going to stay very cold for days after this storm. Per the GFS, I don't get above freezing until the following Wednesday, and not much above either. Really like Jan 88!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: The trajectory of the jet behind the storm is roaring and really gonna make it almost impossible to turn north on us. Yep look at that deep low in GOA and that 588 ridge in MX, jet should be screaming and ridge should pop...IMO. But there is a reason it doesn't snow a lot around here....one little thing is all it takes to derail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Wow said: Something else to consider.. it's going to stay very cold for days after this storm. Per the GFS, I don't get above freezing until the following Wednesday, and not much above either. Good point...and this is the best time of year as far as sun angle goes. It's why i much rather have snow/ice this time of year than in feb or march..the potential for it to hang around on the ground a lot longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 A lot of mets will jump aboard if the Euro shows a movement toward the GFS. Haven't seen the CMC. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthGaWinter Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, TiltedStorm said: A lot of mets will jump aboard if the Euro shows a movement toward the GFS. Haven't seen the CMC. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk CMC is suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, TiltedStorm said: A lot of mets will jump aboard if the Euro shows a movement toward the GFS. Haven't seen the CMC. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah, I mean this thing ought to be getting ready to organize in /near TX by Friday, really not that far off from the event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, NorthGaWinter said: CMC is suppressed Great news, IMO! Hoes the temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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