Cheeznado Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Everyone take a deep breath. You will get a stroke watching every run like this. Yes, I am now a bit more interested in seeing what plays out, but do not get your expectations too high just yet. Just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 That run will shut down I-95 through the Carolinas for a few days. Sleet and ice the dominant precip from Va. to the Ga. state line. in the east. True perfection for this neck of the woods would be to bump the low about 30-40 miles off shore. But man, what a gorgeous setup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, griteater said: At 144, it's and out to sea solution on UKMet....so, good run overall...north and warm is the 'fear' here How far from the gfs is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avalanche Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, shaggy said: I was in the bullseye just at the 06z run.and now it's gone. Never good to be a sweet spot this far in advance Agree. For your area WAA killing it. Safe bet would be Guilford, Alamance, Rockingham, Forsyth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 JB tweet GFS looks too far south to me as per usual bias. Its all over the place, next run something differentSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 17 minutes ago, griteater said: It's pretty much a perfect run for Asheville to Greensboro to Norfolk I love where we're sitting in WNC, given we're still 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, franklin NCwx said: How far from the gfs is it? It doesn't look nearly as sharp with the trough as GFS, but it has nice stream separation and isn't warm and amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 JB again. LolThen again the old rule in the south. Thunder in the winter snow within a week may be interesting test case some placesSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, shaggy said: I was in the bullseye just at the 06z run.and now it's gone. Never good to be a sweet spot this far in advance Yeah you want that sweet spot to your south at this range for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 That's just another beautiful run, two in a row now. Gotta get the Euro and Canadian in agreeing with leaving the pac low being a bit. Matt East commented in his video today that a few months ago this same situation happened and the GFS scored the coup and was right on leaving it behind. Doesn't make it right, but at least there's a chance. Can't get our hopes up, but if I'm being honest, I'm pretty fired up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avalanche Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, griteater said: I remember the old NAM with 20-26 inches in Charlotte area before the Feb 04 storm If I remember correctly, didn't that area get a foot with surface temps marginal at best? Seems the precip rates were off the charts with thundersnow, but surface temps above freezing. Had there been cold surface temps that 20-26 inches could have came to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: JB tweet GFS looks too far south to me as per usual bias. Its all over the place, next run something different Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Lol! Hope he didn't put that out after 6z!!! But when is he ever right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 a little chilly monday under the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Everyone take a deep breath. You will get a stroke watching every run like this. Yes, I am now a bit more interested in seeing what plays out, but do not get your expectations too high just yet. Just sayin' It's tough not to get excited when seeing the last two GFS runs. Good advice on waiting for the euro since it needs to show us the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: JB tweet GFS looks too far south to me as per usual bias. Its all over the place, next run something different Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk translation...it must be wrong because it doesn't show enough snow for the mid atlantic and northeast. Always has to find a way to hype things for the center of the weather universe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: JB tweet GFS looks too far south to me as per usual bias. Its all over the place, next run something different Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I understand where he's coming from. The pattern favors a more northern system overall. However, because of the current timing the GFS has the system is perfectly timed to not go north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Lol! Hope he didn't put that out after 6z!!! But when is he ever right??Nope after the 12z Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, griteater said: Yeah you want that sweet spot to your south at this range for sure My best hope is the euro and CMC stay strung out a bit and less amped and the the storm to be a combination of the gfs and those. That's really my best bet at a big one but we have an eternity in "weather time" to watch this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 translation...it must be wrong because it doesn't show enough snow for the mid atlantic and northeast. Always has to find a way to hype things for the center of the weather universe. Lol You're right that's where he makes all his money those folks up there!!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I will say there's a better chance of everyone on this board winning the lottery this week then the 12z GFS being correct!! As regards to the amounts. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Let's fast forward to Thursday, shall we? Sometimes I hate big storm potential more than I enjoy it. 2 minutes ago, shaggy said: My best hope is the euro and CMC stay strung out a bit and less amped and the the storm to be a combination of the gfs and those. That's really my best bet at a big one but we have an eternity in "weather time" to watch this. Anecdotally this is what I want, simply because I've seen so many storms cut north this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 14 minutes ago, griteater said: I remember the old NAM with 20-26 inches in Charlotte area before the Feb 04 storm Don't you talk about Feb 04 Grit, don't you do it. Similar storm but I think we had good blocking on 04. Still wondering how this is so suppressed on all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, shaggy said: My best hope is the euro and CMC stay strung out a bit and less amped and the the storm to be a combination of the gfs and those. That's really my best bet at a big one but we have an eternity in "weather time" to watch this. Hey Shaggy, good to hear from you again.... I think a compromise of the big dog we just saw modeled and a less amped more southern solution is certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 21 minutes ago, griteater said: It (UKMet) doesn't look nearly as sharp with the trough as GFS, but it has nice stream separation and isn't warm and amped The Atlanta to Raleigh to shaggy folks would like this UKMet look at this time range....while the Big Frosty folks would like the GFS better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, BFF said: This will be my first winter in CLT since moving down from RI. Should be an interesting 5 or 6 days to see how this plays out. Oh...., so you're the one responsible for bringing this down with you. Welcome to winter in the south. Bring us some more of that NE winter mojo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 13 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Don't you talk about Feb 04 Grit, don't you do it. Similar storm but I think we had good blocking on 04. Still wondering how this is so suppressed on all the models. Just perfect timing...plenty of examples like this in the history books, but the good blocking is preferred Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 A lot depends on the speed of the s/w. At 0z Jan 6, we find: 0z Euro: s/w is weaker and faster located in NV at the time -> strung out 0z GFS/12z NAM: slower [and/or] stronger and over W Oregon -> amped up and further north (at least with the 0z GFS) 18z, 6z, 12z GFS: in the middle of these solutions, located near SE Oregon -> money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: The Atlanta to Raleigh to shaggy folks would like this UKMet look at this time range....while the Big Frosty folks would like the GFS better This is opposite of what we usually see with the gfs wanting to shear out/ crush waves coming out under a trough. Usually the euro is over amped and the gfs is a weak strung out mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 41 minutes ago, stormtracker said: NC would be closed for about a week with that one. Hope it happens. Lol you would be correct about that! Shoot a couple of inches falls and its a state of emergency. Widespread 1 foot totals would be devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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