griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: I thought we came into better agreement with the 0z and 6z runs. There is still some spread but confidence is growing for an event this weekend. I'm leaning starting to lean away from a system that cuts too far north. I would lean toward this eventually climbing north, but would love to be wrong....we are connecting on all of our best gadget plays too early in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, griteater said: 06z Para That's another beauty, look at all those purty highs.....beating down. That can't happen can it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 NAM looks very similar to the GFS now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 When was the last time the GFS OP and GFS PARA were that close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: That's another beauty, look at all those purty highs.....beating down. That can't happen can it? And no gl low. Been a long time since that wasn't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 15 minutes ago, griteater said: Some of these latest GFS and GFS Para runs are ideal, what we've been looking for in terms of the timing of the northern stream clearing, then the Pac wave following right behind...that puts the good damming signature in place out front....then you have the amped GFS runs that pull everything north much warmer than ideal yeah these gfs runs are essentially the perfect scenario for a lot of us......which means of course it's likely wrong lol. But seriously, even though it's a long ways off it's hard to look at that and not think...wow...if it's even close to what it's showing, it is a big winter storm for pretty much everybody. Not as unusual for the carolinas but It would be a colder than average storm too for georgia at least..with temps likely stuck in the mid 20s for the duration of the event in the north, upper 20s/near 30 in central ga with temps even below freezing for a while in south ga sat morning. Pretty impressive for the gfs, especially considering it's past performance with wedges. Would really be nice to see some consistency and agreement with the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 This is so textbook on the 06z GFS it's not even funny (or maybe it is). Right entrance region of a strong upper jet streak is located over the Carolinas as the storm rolls through the NE gulf...yields strong vertical motion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, griteater said: I would lean toward this eventually climbing north, but would love to be wrong....we are connecting on all of our best gadget plays too early in the game I know right...we lost the Greenland block, we have that first wave that does pop a low and races past 50/50. The ridging in the west needs to stay or get a little better and we have to hope for a weaker wave with the confluence from all the HP funneling in to keep it south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Matthew East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 hours ago, packfan98 said: Haven't heard about the all important EPS run??? I counted roughly 12 members that were SE centered hits, with 14 as MA centered hits....the rest were weak or an equal hit for both areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, NoSnowATL said: Local Mets won't even hint about a storm. They kill the fun. Saying maybe a few flurries mix with rain. I guess they can't hype it. I get it. No way should they should be hyping it considering how far it's away and how much the models are flopping around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSnowATL Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Lookout said: No way should they should be hyping it considering how far it's away and how much the models are flopping around. I Get it, I just wish they would prepare people that don't watch WX like we do. I know it will change 109x before Friday. Even if it is a big one they always seem ho hum. Just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 These big snowstorms are nice to see for sure. I wish we would see mostly suppressed solutions until Wednesday or Thursday. Having these perfect tracks showing up more frequently 5-6 days out is a recipe for a SNE snowstorm. Without a Greenland block or strong -NAO via ridging into eastern Canada, it's really, really, really difficult to keep these systems suppressed all the way through. Things look good for this time being different, but we are going to need to see this thing suppressed for a couple more days on the better models, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 We will have a good idea by 72 hours if that 0z GFS option is happening. If you look at the para, which also had a more northerly track with its 0z run...the ull needs some interaction with trough digging down to help drag it south, the 0z GFS and para both had more seperation. Euro drags it along and weakens it quite a bit. The GFS big dog runs all drag it and then let it go and it travels right behind. Talk about timing things perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 GFS and GFS para have me at 14-16 and 10-12 inches. But nobody wants to be in the bullseye 6 days away from the event. Still focusing on the thursday possibility - trended wetter but warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 29 minutes ago, griteater said: I counted roughly 12 members that were SE centered hits, with 14 as MA centered hits....the rest were weak or an equal hit for both areas I thumbed trough the odd EPS members and didn't see one that tracked up into KY. We had several 35F rainers where it wave riding the front and the front hadn't sagged far enough south. I was wondering why the snow mean on WB wasn't higher as the qpf mean was like the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, packbacker said: We will have a good idea by 72 hours if that 0z GFS option is happening. If you look at the para, which also had a more northerly track with its 0z run...the ull needs some interaction with trough digging down to help drag it south, the 0z GFS and para both had more seperation. Euro drags it along and weakens it quite a bit. The GFS big dog runs all drag it and then let it go and it travels right behind. Talk about timing things perfectly. Nice work Pack. Thing is, we could get the perfect timing with the waves, but 4 days from now, the entire height pattern could simply be shifted a little north, so it's still too warm. It's common for these northern stream arctic presses to not track as far south as modeled out in time....oh well, enough pessimism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 The 12Z NAM was very weak with the first disturbance. If that is a trend then and the 12Z GFS follows then you can be sure the 2nd system is going to come in well north, or it should. This was just stated well by psuhoffman in the MA forum. The first storm likely has to be strong for the SE to get wintry precip on the 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 GFS is coming in, I bet it's pretty different than the 06Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Cheeznado said: GFS is coming in, I bet it's pretty different than the 06Z run. That's not exactly a bold statement. (no harm meant ) Let's see how we give this one away to D.C. - north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 So far it looks pretty similar to the 6z. A bit stronger with the SE Canadian low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: So far it looks pretty similar to the 6z. A bit stronger with the SE Canadian low. This is of PARAMOUNT importance if we lose our -NAO block. Need the 50/50 to save the day and act as a quasi-block to keep our storm south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 pretty similar to 06z out to 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Everything seems stronger thru 60hr. Our 50/50 LP is stronger, the wave out west is stronger, even the HP's in the Pac NW are a tick stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Close to 6z but might be a blend of 0z and 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Thinking miller a par the 12z gfs. everything is just right on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 precip coming in a tick faster with the thurs wave, should still have light snow over a good part of nc similar to 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Hey guys. Happy New Years to everyone. Haven't been on since last year, however have been keeping up with posts etc.. Just wanted to throw a friendly hello in before I start commenting myself on this impending storm. 75 hour frame looks as though the northern stream may want to dig a little more comparing the 75 12Z panel to the 81 hour 06Z panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Out to 87 it's a little slower and not as positive tilt as 06z...both not as good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 31 minutes ago, packbacker said: We will have a good idea by 72 hours if that 0z GFS option is happening. If you look at the para, which also had a more northerly track with its 0z run...the ull needs some interaction with trough digging down to help drag it south, the 0z GFS and para both had more seperation. Euro drags it along and weakens it quite a bit. The GFS big dog runs all drag it and then let it go and it travels right behind. Talk about timing things perfectly. To compare. Kind of in between the 0z and 6z para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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