JoshM Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, westmc9th said: Is the moisture not making it into WNC as well on the 6z GFS? Odd to see less accumulation in that region of the state compared to the east. No... Eastern NC gets more snow in the first wave, ~ 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshevilleCityWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Western NC does better with first wave...3" Winston Salem with 1-2" back into the foothills. 0z GFS had zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Take a look at the ice accumulation on Pivotal. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, cg2916 said: Take a look at the ice accumulation on Pivotal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 6z GEFS continues to tick up. Also a stronger signal for the MA regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 36 minutes ago, westmc9th said: Is the moisture not making it into WNC as well on the 6z GFS? Odd to see less accumulation in that region of the state compared to the east. I wouldn't worry. We will get ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshevilleCityWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Out to lunch still IMO...beyond extreme. Like 5 days below freezing for many...some nights below zero in the Piedmont...pipes would be freezing and busting. Very unclimo like...not saying there won't be winter weather....but 6z GFS is an extreme outlier IMO. It would be foolish to share this run to the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, AshevilleCityWx said: Out to lunch still IMO...beyond extreme. Like 5 days below freezing for many...some nights below zero in the Piedmont...pipes would be freezing and busting. Very unclimo like...not saying there won't be winter weather....but 6z GFS is an extreme outlier IMO. It would be foolish to share this run to the public. We've had cold snaps like this before, why does it have to be an outlier? It's not like is a day 15 GFS crazy cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 56 minutes ago, JoshM said: @ hr 138, that LP off the coast is in perfect position. This is just to the west of you in Rutherfordton (KFQD) based off the 06Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: This is just to the west of you in Rutherfordton (KFQD) based off the 06Z GFS Talk about some high ratio snow.....not to mention 23 degrees when it's piling up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 16 minutes ago, packfan98 said: That would be horrible if that came true. Hopefully, some of that will be sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Haven't heard about the all important EPS run??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I think reality will be a blend of last nights euro and the 6z GFS this morning, will be the final outcome! Hopefully! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, packfan98 said: Haven't heard about the all important EPS run??? It's the 6z, we toss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshevilleCityWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: We've had cold snaps like this before, why does it have to be an outlier? It's not like is a day 15 GFS crazy cold shot. It's worst case scenario. Rare...once a year setup in favorable years when we are talking below zero in the Piedmont. Climo tells me it will not only be warmer...but the warm nose will likely reach as far north as the Virginia border when all is said and done. I believe the most ice would likely be somewhere north of Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh...defiantly not southward! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshevilleCityWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 23 minutes ago, Met1985 said: I wouldn't worry. We will get ours. More worried about the warm nose. No way is the 6z GFS anywhere near correct with that heavy icing placement...my faith in that is near a non-zero percentage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, AshevilleCityWx said: It's worst case scenario. Rare...once a year setup in favorable years when we are talking below zero in the Piedmont. Climo tells me it will not only be warmer...but the warm nose will likely reach as far north as the Virginia border when all is said and done. I believe the most ice would likely be somewhere north of Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh...defiantly not southward! That Augusta ice storm a few years back, was pretty rough! I think they are due and the 6z GFS, would do it and probably worse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, AshevilleCityWx said: More worried about the warm nose. No way is the 6z GFS anywhere near correct with that heavy icing placement...my faith in that is near a non-zero percentage. Feb 2013 must have escaped your memory then because the IP/ZR line was south of Columbia, and they had ZR all the way to Charleston. No, it's certainly not common, but it's by no means unheard of either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That Augusta ice storm a few years back, was pretty rough! I think they are due and the 6z GFS, would do it and probably worse! You beat me to it Mack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshevilleCityWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: That Augusta ice storm a few years back, was pretty rough! I think they are due and the 6z GFS, would do it and probably worse! Hope so I hate ice here. This could easily trend icy toward north-east Georgia to south-east Virginia...which would of course throw IP and not all snow back into western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshevilleCityWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, J.C. said: Feb 2013 must have escaped your memory then because the IP/ZR line was south of Columbia, and they had ZR all the way to Charleston. No, it's certainly not common, but it's by no means unheard of either. It's a different setup can't really compare it to that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshevilleCityWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 See the report by Mark Malsick on the Feb storm to understand the differences. Should be able to pull it up with M-Word from Google. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 20 minutes ago, AshevilleCityWx said: It's worst case scenario. Rare...once a year setup in favorable years when we are talking below zero in the Piedmont. Climo tells me it will not only be warmer...but the warm nose will likely reach as far north as the Virginia border when all is said and done. I believe the most ice would likely be somewhere north of Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh...defiantly not southward! No, it's not a worse case. It's called climo. seen it plenty of times in my 52 years here. Give some reasoning why you think it will not happen as depicted. Our best snows come when the midlands of SC get a crippling ice storm. The rain-snow line sets up just south of a Charlotte-GSP line. As for the low temps.... I assume you understand the effect a fresh snowpack has on overnight lows. Look at what happened in OK a few years ago. There was a pocket of -25 F temps in central OK just after a fresh snow and you had to travel north to the Canadian border to find similar temps. It can and does happen. Now, I will not say that this will happen as modeled, but it is certainly within the believable spectrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshevilleCityWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: No, it's not a worse case. It's called climo. seen it plenty of times in my 52 years here. Give some reasoning why you think it will not happen as depicted. First reasoning is if ice is already modeled a tick south of all the major S/E metros like 5+ days out...it's going to be awful hard to keep it there. Climo is more favorable to see warm noses surpassing Danville, VA in this setup. I think it may be possible to see better runs of the models after the current severe weather outbreak passes the S/E...possibly starting Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. Until then I expect no agreement among the main globals and inconsistent swings with the GFS op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 RAH discussion (smartly playing it safe): LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM Monday... Wednesday through Friday: The cold front will progress through the area and surface trough will shift offshore on Wednesday and Wednesday night, with high pressure ridging into the area thereafter. The cold air advection will lag a bit behind the front, and as a result highs on Wednesday will still be quite warm, mid 50s NW to mid 60s SE. Wednesday night lows will bottom out in the low to mid 30s. Much lower temps for Thursday (highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s) and Thursday night (lows in the mid 20s to low 30s). Aloft, the upper level low will remain over the Northern Great Lakes and Southern Canada during this period. A weak shortwave will pass to the north, however the weather will be largely dry until Thursday night. There is a slight chance for rain or snow Thursday night, though there is some uncertainty on if and where it would occur. Regardless, impact appears to be minimal at this time. Friday Night through Monday: Very low forecast confidence from Friday Night onward as the ECMWF and GFS have completely different solutions. The ECMWF brings precipitation into Central NC Friday Night as a low moves northeast along the mid-Atlantic coast, while the GFS brings it in Saturday Night into Sunday as a second frontal system moves into/through the area. It is likely the outcome will fall somewhere in between the two, however blending the two together, given the significant differences, would not provide a better forecast. Temperatures with either model solution would result in the precipitation falling as rain or snow if it does occur. For now, will lean more toward the ECMWF and introduce aslight chance for rain or snow in the west late Friday night into early Saturday, a slight chance of rain Saturday afternoon, and keep Saturday night dry, though just below slight chance. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Good ole Dale Gilbert! No mention of the "S" word this weekend or Thursday! Did say mountains could see a flurry on Thursday, changing to rain!? He is the Glenn Burns of Greenville, I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 6z NAVGEM at hour 144. Slower that the GFS but still has the storm south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 hours ago, FallsLake said: Good morning everybody! This is my ideal track for MBY. Thank you 6z GFS. I'm sure if this setup is as depicted, HP would trend stronger over the NE. Always does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 About half of the EPS and half of the GEFS members have more than just a dusting of snow here in the ATL area. This has been pretty consistent for many runs now. So no real clarity yet with this setup- we will not get a better handle for at least 3 more days IMO. Getting all depressed or excited about individual Op runs is a waste of time and energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Trend in Euro promising, need it to dig more for a slower, slightly amped system for a Sat evening event instead of AM. Earlier arrival means less impressive wave and low accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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