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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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3 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

I'm not gonna call no names but a Met with Initals  JB  said He thought models would correct west for several days!! then that NAM run last night he said he could believe it. Some on here laugh and said he sucked. Well guess what they shifted west...................... Guess he didn't suck all that bad with this storm. huh!! 

Yep he did call it. He gets a bad rap 

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2 minutes ago, QC_Halo said:

My fellow bulldog @msuwx is lurking here....chime in man.

 Not a whole lot to add. I've got to hit the bed to be on the air dark and early. 

 Interstate 85 Corridor just has to continue to be patient. Changeover should occur and still expect generous amounts. Raleigh area has been and remains extremely tricky to see how this will play out  

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2 minutes ago, mryanwilkes said:

This may have already been addressed and/or asked, but I can't find it. Is the low sitting near Savannah (and has been stationary for a while) the one we were expecting to develop? I thought one was forming off the LA coast. Did that materialize?

There is a diffuse elongated low in the Gulf. Weak, still till trying to get organized. It has oozed east north east over the last several hours.

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3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

WRAL seems to be calling a lot less than others, especially when you take in account the model runs now. They kind of chickened out by saying somet places will get 6+ and not really making a call, though. But they have most of NC as 4 to 6. Other TV nets are saying 6 to 10 and 8 to 12.

Do you see the rain outside?  Raleigh proper, including your area, had 3.5" by 1am per Euro.  That ain't happening, we can start chopping off those big totals.

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GSP Discussion...

Locations above about 1500`, and roughly along and north of an axis from Rutherfordton, to Lincolnton, to Salisbury in NC will be solidly snow, while after an initial bout of rain and perhaps sleet, a transition to snow is expected to occur down to near the I-85 corridor by midnight or so. South of there, considerable uncertainty lingers regarding the timing of a transition, as wet bulb temps from Anderson to Union to Chester SC are lingering near 40 degrees, and there is not expected to be a tremendous push of cold surface air into these areas over the next few hours. In fact we`re beginning to get concerned that those areas won`t see any significant near-surface cooling until the moisture begins to shift east of the area. We will wait for the event to unfold a little more (and await 00Z guidance) before making any radical changes to the forecast and products, but confidence that the warning will work out over the southern half of the Upstate and northeast GA is beginning to slip.

Confidence is higher along the I-85 corridor, but considering the warm nose indicated on special 18Z Raob from KFFC, and the fact that sfc temps are going to need to drop another couple of degrees before the transition to snow occurs, am concerned that initially rain, followed perhaps by sleet, will cut into the snow accums in those areas.

Meanwhile, forecast confidence remains high for locations north of the I-85 corridor. Expect there will be some banding overnight with frontogenetical forcing and slant-wise instability developing, so locally higher amounts than the 4-8 inches forecast in these areas will certainly be possible.
 

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

GSP Discussion...

Locations above about 1500`, and roughly along and north of an axis from Rutherfordton, to Lincolnton, to Salisbury in NC will be solidly snow, while after an initial bout of rain and perhaps sleet, a transition to snow is expected to occur down to near the I-85 corridor by midnight or so. South of there, considerable uncertainty lingers regarding the timing of a transition, as wet bulb temps from Anderson to Union to Chester SC are lingering near 40 degrees, and there is not expected to be a tremendous push of cold surface air into these areas over the next few hours. In fact we`re beginning to get concerned that those areas won`t see any significant near-surface cooling until the moisture begins to shift east of the area. We will wait for the event to unfold a little more (and await 00Z guidance) before making any radical changes to the forecast and products, but confidence that the warning will work out over the southern half of the Upstate and northeast GA is beginning to slip.

Confidence is higher along the I-85 corridor, but considering the warm nose indicated on special 18Z Raob from KFFC, and the fact that sfc temps are going to need to drop another couple of degrees before the transition to snow occurs, am concerned that initially rain, followed perhaps by sleet, will cut into the snow accums in those areas.

Meanwhile, forecast confidence remains high for locations north of the I-85 corridor. Expect there will be some banding overnight with frontogenetical forcing and slant-wise instability developing, so locally higher amounts than the 4-8 inches forecast in these areas will certainly be possible.
 

How does this affect CLT?  How are you doing?  I thought your area would be killing it by now.

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Just now, packbacker said:

How does this affect CLT?  How are you doing?  I thought your area would be killing it by now.

Just got first frozen precip in form of sleet about 10min ago. FYI I'm close to uptown...the Yankees in near mooresville had frozen hours ago

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1 minute ago, RaleighWx said:

Just residual warmth taking time to wash out. Models showed it would cool down north to south between 7pm-11pm. As this precip moves in I expect it will cool more rapidly.

Awesome.  Thanks very much and enjoy your snow and sleet and snow and whatever winter fun you guys are having up there.

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34 minutes ago, SouthWake33 said:

Thanks Alan.  Has the temp profile changed on the Nam...moved further south at all?  Or are we just looking at an increase in moisture?

It looks like the snow (no ice) increased over Wake county some, so perhaps cooled a bit. havent examined sounding outside my back yard though yet. Here the model shows a 2-3 hour period of sleet later tonight.

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15 minutes ago, msuwx said:

 Not a whole lot to add. I've got to hit the bed to be on the air dark and early. 

 Interstate 85 Corridor just has to continue to be patient. Changeover should occur and still expect generous amounts. Raleigh area has been and remains extremely tricky to see how this will play out  

Thanks Matt. 

Go State.

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1 minute ago, RaleighWx said:

Just residual warmth taking time to wash out. Models showed it would cool down north to south between 7pm-11pm. As this precip moves in I expect it will cool more rapidly.

Thanks Allan. Daughter in grad school at Chapel Hill says they have sleet/snow mix going on. 

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