Wow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Jet Stream Rider said: Looking at the dynamics on the hemisphere water vapor, the entire system looks amazing, expansive and massive. Just getting started. Indeed. The more this s/w trends sharper/south, the more GOM moisture is going to be picked up. We could be looking at some big QPF numbers here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benholio Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Does a stronger s/w give a bigger warm nose? I have a feeling much of NGA that was expecting snow is going to get all sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newshinycd Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, cg2916 said: Is there any free site or program out there that shows current METARs on a map? AWC has a map: https://www.aviationweather.gov/metar/gis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Wow said: You're going to get in on it WOW, Want most of that precip scoot by to my SE? It's going to have to change trajectory in order to get up here? Am I looking at this wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Everyone is looking to the southwest for the precip. Well, here's what's also happening "upstream" to the northeast for the cold temps so many are needing. It was 32.9 here in Colfax (next to GSO) with light snow when I got home from work at 5:15. In one hour, the temp had dropped to 31.3 and the snow had all but stopped. Now an hour and 15 minutes later, it's down to 30.9 with VERY light snow. So, the moral of the story is that the colder air, at least here in Colfax at the surface, is working its way in. Winds are Northeast at 10. I hope these colder temps make it as far south as possible for everyone wanting more wintry precip. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Benholio said: Does a stronger s/w give a bigger warm nose? I have a feeling much of NGA that was expecting snow is going to get all sleet. I don't think we're going see much more of a warming trend this is this more of an overrunning event and the dynamics of the storm itself are rather weak, but the moisture fetch could be more expansive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: Indeed. The more this s/w trends sharper/south, the more GOM moisture is going to be picked up. We could be looking at some big QPF numbers here. All that moisture represented by the returns off the west coast of Fla looks to become entrained and move north into the system as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: WOW, Want most of that precip scoot by to my SE? It's going to have to change trajectory in order to get up here? Am I looking at this wrong? You look good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 If we want the moisture to change trajectory, we need a surface low to develop to help push the moisture back. If it is just overrunning with no lp, don't expect the trajectory to change much. I think we have a low that is in the process of developing and we're seeing the moisture start to backbuild. TW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Everyone is looking to the southwest for the precip. Well, here's what's also happening "upstream" to the northeast for the cold temps so many are needing. It was 32.9 here in Colfax (next to GSO) with light snow when I got home from work at 5:15. In one hour, the temp had dropped to 31.3 and the snow had all but stopped. Now an hour and 15 minutes later, it's down to 30.9 with VERY light snow. So, the moral of the story is that the colder air, at least here in Colfax at the surface, is working its way in. Winds are Northeast at 10. I hope these colder temps make it as far south as possible for everyone wanting more wintry precip. TW Temp just fell a few degrees here too. 31 now with accumulating sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, burrel2 said: I'm worried for the upstate. Looks like the 800 to 850mb warm nose will move all the way almost to the southern escarpment at the height of the precip tonight. I'm thinking the only places that remaining all snow will be from north of pickens to travelers rest to maybe campobello. Agree with this. Just like Feb 2015. In fact my temp is actually rising now. We absolutely MUST, with NO exceptions, already have the cold air in place here in SC for a snowstorm to work out and we don't this time. I can not remember ONE time that the cold air got over the mountains in time for snow with a system like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Wow said: I don't think we're going see much more of a warming trend this is this more of an overrunning event and the dynamics of the storm itself are rather weak, but the moisture fetch could be more expansive. Agree, really feel good right now. Guys don't get fooled by radar. Mathew East said this a.m. folks would freak looking at radar about supper time tonight. It's just now getting going down below us, qpf want be a problem, espeacilly as SLP comes across North Florida latter tonight and off Ga coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: You look good to me I hear you Wow....but all I see, like Frosty, is a firehose pointed straight at RDU and Norfolk. Dont get me wrong, while I would love a good snow I really dont need it. I'm just making the observation that the heaviest precip modeled earlier today seems to align with the radar presentation at present. And unless the radar blossoms (word of the day) significantly to the west of me and frosty, we are going to be talking about the B word by midnight. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Light snow with big flakes as I enter the lull area, with a heavy dusting. Temperatures have dipped below freezing here, so I overall feel pretty happy with where I'm at. Setting up for a good storm tonight, I feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: If we want the moisture to change trajectory, we need a surface low to develop to help push the moisture back. If it is just overrunning with no lp, don't expect the trajectory to change much. I think we have a low that is in the process of developing and we're seeing the moisture start to backbuild. TW. I hope you're right, If not just about all will miss me to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, shahroz98 said: At this point, how does Atlanta look snow wise ? I still expect 2-4 inches here when all is set and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2017/md0022.htmlSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The 22Z HRRR gives the Triad over a foot of snow, ending around 10-11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: I hear you Wow....but all I see, like Frosty, is a firehose pointed straight at RDU and Norfolk. Dont get me wrong, while I would love a good snow I really dont need it. I'm just making the observation that the heaviest precip modeled earlier today seems to align with the radar presentation at present. And unless the radar blossoms (word of the day) significantly to the west of me and frosty, we are going to be talking about the B word by midnight. Time will tell. Just watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Poimen said: HRRR gives the Triad over a foot of snow, ending around 10-11am. What about west of you Mount Airy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said: I hope you're right, If not just about all will miss me to the SE. It really is starting to blossom to our SW. I think me and you both are looking good right now. (BTW i'm in Reidsville tonight). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Poimen said: HRRR gives the Triad over a foot of snow, ending around 10-11am. I can see that verifying from where things stand now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, NC_WX10 said: It really is starting to blossom to our SW. I think me and you both are looking good right now. (BTW i'm in Reidsville tonight). Cool, Keep my hopes alive.......... lol Don't like the the way it's pointed right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said: What about west of you Mount Airy? Big Frosty--it looks like you're at about 10" I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andersonSCgirl Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 41 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Awesome to see that warm bubble gone! I can score snow at 37/38 degrees! I'm slowly dropping 39.3! Wish they would have built I-85, about 10 miles more to the South Me too since I'm 7 miles south of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: I can see that verifying from where things stand now Yeah, we're in a good spot here, none of the models bring any mixing issue this far NW. I like the radar trends to the SW, it seems to match the guidance well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Also, for the folks east of us, that map is not a storm total. It's still snowing east of the Triad at that time according to the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 29 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yep good point. Any good trends on the WRAPs and HRRRRRRs? Seems like the RAP has shifted ever so slight SE. 850 line will still divide the Triangle. QPF is a little lighter with ~1.50 now showing for our area. Definitely still overdone. HRRR not much change from before. Been sleeting here off and on for the last couple of hours. Would love to see that change to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: Big Frosty--it looks like you're at about 10" I think. Thanks man!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I should add that the RAP is almost identical to the HRRR, from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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