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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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1 minute ago, rduwx said:

Well, I was hoping for a shift SW today but not happening. Unfortunately, we will mix a lot in Wake County.  I'd much prefer to be up in Brick's area but for myself, Pack, and ColdRain...it's not looking good.

Apex is not that bad for Wake County. You're at least in the western part of the county.

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5 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Is that facetious, angry, comedian, or 'experienced' CR speaking?

Lol all of the above?  No other model is showing this sort of thermal profile.  Most models are still ticking NW, even the short range ones.  I think it's the GFS's lower resolution that's the problem.  I would be shocked if entire Wake didn't mix and for a good period too.  We almost certainly will not remain all snow down here.  If I'm wrong, I will never doubt this model again.

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I'm just east of the airport near brier creek, so I feel halfway decent per the 18z gfs/euro. NAM and all related models show us mixing for pretty much half the event. That's the difference b/n 12 inches and 5 inches. Someone just NW of that line in far NW wake county is going to get buried.  I still think the NAM is overdone given the setup. It's just not that dynamic of a setup IMO for a SLP to track so close to the coastline. There could perhaps be some convective issues. That said, it's often very accurate on mixing, so it wouldn't surprise me if it's right. If we take a middle road for NW wake county, you're looking at around 7 inches or so.

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Pissed off. Hate being right on the line- odd that now the NAM is snowier than the GFS. I hope I even get the 1" that the GFS has for me. May have to venture up north.


Same here...some of the models are showing 1.00in QPF from 7:00pm to 7:00am here in Athens, Ga....hate the warm nose. Hoping for something on the back side.


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1 hour ago, griteater said:

Been thinking all along that this is a 'moderate' level storm Niner, not a big boy....we shall see. 

Grit, are you thinking some of those widespread QPF totals of 1-1.5" QPF are overdone?  It seems like we've done this song and dance before, and then had the really high QPF totals not happen.  It generally seems pretty difficult to get 1" QPF worth of snow in NC outside of the mountains, except in really memorable storms.

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1 minute ago, superjames1992 said:

Grit, are you thinking some of those widespread QPF totals of 1-1.5" QPF are overdone?  It seems like we've done this song and dance before, and then had the really high QPF totals not happen.  It generally seems pretty difficult to get 1" QPF worth of snow in NC outside of the mountains, except in really memorable storms.

Yeah I like to knock off a certain percentage from the model QPF....also, been saying that the overall setup for this one is good, but it's not a prolonged, long fetch overrunning event, or a phased, deepening, slow moving low, so can't expect huge big dog totals...obviously, these are just my thoughts as I see it

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17 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

dang just saw online john c has us in the 5-10 inch range in downtown Greenville

Sorry but are you referencing Greenville NC or SC? I'm in Washington about 15 miles east of Greenville NC and I'm hoping to get 2 inches out of this storm.

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7 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

Grit, are you thinking some of those widespread QPF totals of 1-1.5" QPF are overdone?  It seems like we've done this song and dance before, and then had the really high QPF totals not happen.  It generally seems pretty difficult to get 1" QPF worth of snow in NC outside of the mountains, except in really memorable storms.

Very hard to get over 1".  GEFS and EPS are both over 1.2"....would think 0.8-0.9" is possible.  But, Raleigh is going to waste .1 or so on rain, maybe a little more. 

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2 minutes ago, palmettoweather said:

For those of us in the corner of the Upstate/NE GA, the 925s look much better right now. That warm nose at 18z has gotten below 0 now at 22z. Let's hope it stays that way.

 

925mb_sf.jpg

Yeah, it looks like the snow line currently extends south to Simpsonville/Fountain Inn.

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53 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Diffuse slp of 1009 in the Gulf now well south of Louisiana. Hello.

 

pchg.gif?1483740010325

If the Low is in the gulf under LA like that, shouldn't it exit Florida between Jacksonville and Daytona?  That puts it right where we want it doesn't it? 

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