FallsLake Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:19 PM, rduwx said: Well, I was hoping for a shift SW today but not happening. Unfortunately, we will mix a lot in Wake County. I'd much prefer to be up in Brick's area but for myself, Pack, and ColdRain...it's not looking good. Expand Apex is not that bad for Wake County. You're at least in the western part of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:07 PM, broken024 said: Grit totals for waxhaw? Same as south charlotte? Expand I would go 1-3 there....you should get into some good precip, but think it will be mostly sleet once it gets going good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:21 PM, griteater said: Expand Look at that warm nose for E. Ga and GSP Metro ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:21 PM, FallsLake said: Apex is not that bad for Wake County. You're at least in the western part of the county. Expand True...But you know how the warm noses never under perform...Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 dang just saw online john c has us in the 5-10 inch range in downtown Greenville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:17 PM, CaryWx said: Is that facetious, angry, comedian, or 'experienced' CR speaking? Expand Lol all of the above? No other model is showing this sort of thermal profile. Most models are still ticking NW, even the short range ones. I think it's the GFS's lower resolution that's the problem. I would be shocked if entire Wake didn't mix and for a good period too. We almost certainly will not remain all snow down here. If I'm wrong, I will never doubt this model again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Wow, GFS just went crazy. That number 16 right on top of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I'm just east of the airport near brier creek, so I feel halfway decent per the 18z gfs/euro. NAM and all related models show us mixing for pretty much half the event. That's the difference b/n 12 inches and 5 inches. Someone just NW of that line in far NW wake county is going to get buried. I still think the NAM is overdone given the setup. It's just not that dynamic of a setup IMO for a SLP to track so close to the coastline. There could perhaps be some convective issues. That said, it's often very accurate on mixing, so it wouldn't surprise me if it's right. If we take a middle road for NW wake county, you're looking at around 7 inches or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Pissed off. Hate being right on the line- odd that now the NAM is snowier than the GFS. I hope I even get the 1" that the GFS has for me. May have to venture up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:27 PM, Cheeznado said: Pissed off. Hate being right on the line- odd that now the NAM is snowier than the GFS. I hope I even get the 1" that the GFS has for me. May have to venture up north.Same here...some of the models are showing 1.00in QPF from 7:00pm to 7:00am here in Athens, Ga....hate the warm nose. Hoping for something on the back side. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:25 PM, No snow for you said: dang just saw online john c has us in the 5-10 inch range in downtown Greenville Expand Really don't see that happening! Did he say when changeover would happen?? I mean it's 41 degrees, can't be that different in GSP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:11 PM, griteater said: I like 3-6 in your area Here's the 18z RGEM total precip And click this for the Euro animation Expand Grit, while we are doing mby, can you please give your best opinion about GSP?? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 9:27 PM, griteater said: Been thinking all along that this is a 'moderate' level storm Niner, not a big boy....we shall see. Expand Grit, are you thinking some of those widespread QPF totals of 1-1.5" QPF are overdone? It seems like we've done this song and dance before, and then had the really high QPF totals not happen. It generally seems pretty difficult to get 1" QPF worth of snow in NC outside of the mountains, except in really memorable storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:36 PM, mackerel_sky said: Grit, while we are doing mby, can you please give your best opinion about GSP?? TIA Expand I've got to run! Ha, no I've got to head out....but for that area, man, I'd have to scour through some soundings....I know how yall fight back like bulldogs down there when things bust!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Is the precip blossoming as much to the SW as models were indicating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Could someone please explain to me why precipitation sometimes doesn't reach the ground, even in 90% humidity? Radar claims we're getting mix/freezing rain, but none to see with my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:38 PM, superjames1992 said: Grit, are you thinking some of those widespread QPF totals of 1-1.5" QPF are overdone? It seems like we've done this song and dance before, and then had the really high QPF totals not happen. It generally seems pretty difficult to get 1" QPF worth of snow in NC outside of the mountains, except in really memorable storms. Expand Yeah I like to knock off a certain percentage from the model QPF....also, been saying that the overall setup for this one is good, but it's not a prolonged, long fetch overrunning event, or a phased, deepening, slow moving low, so can't expect huge big dog totals...obviously, these are just my thoughts as I see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:40 PM, NC_WX10 said: Is the precip blossoming as much to the SW as models were indicating? Expand Yes In GA eastward. Looks like plenty of QPF with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:34 PM, mackerel_sky said: Really don't see that happening! Did he say when changeover would happen?? I mean it's 41 degrees, can't be that different in GSP! Expand mack, I'm a few degrees cooler - however, if one follows current model output, you *might* be in a fantastic location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:25 PM, No snow for you said: dang just saw online john c has us in the 5-10 inch range in downtown Greenville Expand Sorry but are you referencing Greenville NC or SC? I'm in Washington about 15 miles east of Greenville NC and I'm hoping to get 2 inches out of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palmettoweather Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 For those of us in the corner of the Upstate/NE GA, 925 temps look much better right now. That warm nose at 18z has gotten below 0 now at 22z. Let's hope it stays that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:38 PM, superjames1992 said: Grit, are you thinking some of those widespread QPF totals of 1-1.5" QPF are overdone? It seems like we've done this song and dance before, and then had the really high QPF totals not happen. It generally seems pretty difficult to get 1" QPF worth of snow in NC outside of the mountains, except in really memorable storms. Expand Very hard to get over 1". GEFS and EPS are both over 1.2"....would think 0.8-0.9" is possible. But, Raleigh is going to waste .1 or so on rain, maybe a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:44 PM, drfranklin said: mack, I'm a few degrees cooler - however, if one follows current model output, you *might* be in a fantastic location Expand We need some major cooling to occur for something fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:47 PM, palmettoweather said: For those of us in the corner of the Upstate/NE GA, the 925s look much better right now. That warm nose at 18z has gotten below 0 now at 22z. Let's hope it stays that way. Expand Yeah, it looks like the snow line currently extends south to Simpsonville/Fountain Inn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miller Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:47 PM, palmettoweather said: For those of us in the corner of the Upstate/NE GA, the 925s look much better right now. That warm nose at 18z has gotten below 0 now at 22z. Let's hope it stays that way. Expand Nice. Let the games Begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:42 PM, Wow said: Yes In GA eastward. Looks like plenty of QPF with this one. Expand Its what is west of BHM that really holds my interest..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:42 PM, Wow said: Yes In GA eastward. Looks like plenty of QPF with this one. Expand Want that miss most of western NC especially further north where I bed down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Getting heavy sleet now. Seems it started earlier than forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:03 PM, Jet Stream Rider said: Diffuse slp of 1009 in the Gulf now well south of Louisiana. Hello. Expand If the Low is in the gulf under LA like that, shouldn't it exit Florida between Jacksonville and Daytona? That puts it right where we want it doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 10:56 PM, gwlee7 said: If the Low is in the gulf under LA like that, shouldn't exit Florida between Jacksonville and Daytona? That puts it right where we want it doesn't it? Expand It looks to exit above Jax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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