packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 18z Para...scared to see the 0z run tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: 00z GFS Ens Mean Sat aftn I always say when the models swing wildly....ride the ensembles. That's the best course of action. I'll bet the NWS offices tomorrow morning will throw out the 0z GFS run as an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Thanks Grit. Puts the oz op run in left field. Great signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: All ice. Maybe a short front end thump but then ice->rain. Looks like around a half inch in the favorable areas, maybe more snow than zr in Rabun County. so it would be freezing rain and no sleet around here ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: so it would be freezing rain and no sleet around here ? For Dahlonega proper, taking the run at face value, it's IP/ZR at 138 and then rain by 144. This going off pivotal's soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 As amped/North as the 00z GFS was, I think it would still be a nice winter storm for many as depicted. Wedging would hold on longer and you would probably see a better miller B type transfer opposed to the surface low traveling across the mountains. Probably a quick burst of snow followed by lots of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Thanks Grit. Puts the oz op run in left field. Great signs.The op gfs has consistently been better than its ensembles this winter Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: I always say when the models swing wildly....ride the ensembles. That's the best course of action. I hope the NWS offices tomorrow morning will throw out the 0z GFS run as an outlier. FYP But seriously, can we PLEASE get some sort of EURO agreement tonight? I don't think anyone's gonna bite (tv mets/NWS) on anything for Saturday until the EURO shows something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, packbacker said: 18z Para...scared to see the 0z run tomorrow. Dang Pack that para run was money...not sharp with the shortwave and textbook sfc track for upstate and northeast of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ji said: The op gfs has consistently been better than its ensembles this winter Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Coming in here to gloat about fake snow, huh Jihad? The EURO will send y'all back to your panic room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 13/20 gefs ensemble members show accumulating snow for rdu for the initial thurs wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ji said: The op gfs has consistently been better than its ensembles this winter We know how it goes, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ji said: The op gfs has consistently been better than its ensembles this winter Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk And para trumps the gfs op. Get your stats straight. Go skins lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avalanche Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 19 minutes ago, packbacker said: 18z Para...scared to see the 0z run tomorrow. That looks good for you!!! Tonight's GFS to me looks like an interior Mid-Atlantic crusher. Am I seeing that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 GEFS day 7 snowfall mean looks pretty tasty for a good chunk of area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Looking at the GFS Ensemble members, I counted 8 that were SE centered hits, with another 8 that were Mid Atlantic centered hits....rest were something else, usually weak or no system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 It's just so very common for the height pattern to shift north than it is for it to shift south...just a common bias in the modeling. For now, we stay in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 37 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: Looks like around a half inch in the favorable areas, maybe more snow than zr in Rabun County. Been lurking around on here for a few months, but saw my little home town of Rabun County mentioned so figured I might as well say hello. I'm a senior at UGA right now and working on getting my Geography degree and a certificate in Atmospheric Sciences and needless to say I've been a weather geek since I was a kid, so I've really enjoyed reading everyone's posts. I've got this semester off at home for some family reasons and have been looking forward to the winter. Having spent the last 3 1/2 years in Athens, winter weather has been hard to come by and the pictures from home were absolute torture. So hopefully the mountains of North GA will treat me kindly this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 So on this morning's Euro run, it brought the Pac wave out quicker than the GFS and had some northern stream interaction that sheared it out a bit...it was a suppressed solution with sfc low tracking off Daytona, with very light late blooming snow in NC/SC. We'll see what the 00z has to offer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 17 minutes ago, griteater said: Looking at the GFS Ensemble members, I counted 8 that were SE centered hits, with another 8 that were Mid Atlantic centered hits....rest were something else, usually weak or no system. I see 3 that are tracking it like the Op, up in KY. If we can just keep it south of us...although whiff is just as likely as a rain per the ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 25 minutes ago, griteater said: It's just so very common for the height pattern to shift north than it is for it to shift south...just a common bias in the modeling. For now, we stay in the game Especially without a stout Atlantic block. When was the last time we had an event that didn't affect the MA. It's a given that if we get something so will they. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 The CMC Ensemble mean was a little weaker/flatter than its previous run with the Pac wave coming out....the mean has a light snow event much like the GFS Mean...north GA, upstate, thru most of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Out to 72, Euro looks similar to it's previous run. It's faster with the Pac wave kick out than the GFS. At 72, the Euro has the Pac wave in S Oregon, with GFS having it off the OR coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Out to 81, Euro has positive tilt Pac wave in N Nevada. GFS at same time had it still off the Oregon coast. Wave looks just a touch stronger than prev run. Early guess is that this should be a decent run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Out to 81, Euro has positive tilt Pac wave in N Nevada. GFS at same time had it still off the Oregon coast. Wave looks just a touch stronger than prev run. Early guess is that this should be a decent run Looks nothing like GFS at 84. More like the CMC if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Looks nothing like GFS at 84. More like the CMC if anything. UKMet / GFS / Euro have a lot to get ironed out with the Pac wave handling.....all diff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Man, SV is fast lol might need to jump on that train. Hopefully with the stronger wave, it wont get lost in Florida... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Thurs night there is light snows from OK to W NC to WVA / VA with the initial northern stream wave energy diving down. Don't know if Euro is going to round the bend with a second wave scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 At 120-123, it has sfc low draped across N FL up off Carolina coast. Cold air is tilted more SW to NE so it has light snow from central/ S MS / North Bama to Greensboro...tight cut off on temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.