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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017

StoneColdWeatherAustin

By StoneColdWeatherAustin,
in Southeastern States

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Try not to live and die by every HRRR model run. We won't know for central NC exactly what the upper looks like until balloons are launched by NWS Raleigh/NCSU. HRRR is not gospel, even though it has a 15-minute smoothed 18 hour radar gif. Models initialize wrong all the time, constantly, especially for a model that runs every hour. Hold on for soundings and go from there.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Jon said:

Try not to live and die by every HRRR model run. We won't know for central NC exactly what the upper looks like until balloons are launched by NWS Raleigh/NCSU. HRRR is not gospel, even though it has a 15-minute smoothed 18 hour radar gif. Models initialize wrong all the time, constantly, especially for a model that runs every hour. Hold on for soundings and go from there.

Just saw a few post back how it was off at Greensboro on soundings.

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CaryWx

CaryWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Jon said:

Try not to live and die by every HRRR model run. We won't know for central NC exactly what the upper looks like until balloons are launched by NWS Raleigh/NCSU. HRRR is not gospel, even though it has a 15-minute smoothed 18 hour radar gif. Models initialize wrong all the time, constantly, especially for a model that runs every hour. Hold on for soundings and go from there.

Very encouraging Jon.  Please keep us posted on soundings as I am right on the advertised line with this one in Cary.  A 20 mile shake either way could could land me in plingerville or snowpocalypse

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LovingGulfLows

LovingGulfLows

Posted
Posted
Just now, weatherfide said:

So far, this is EXACTLY like the 2/25/2015 storm!

 

Yeah this storm is alraedy reminding me of the heartbreak I experienced over the last several years where models honed in on a nice system 2-3 days before, then the SW flow just kills my area until the last 2 hours where I get light snow or flurries and barely a dusting or very light accumulation. So frustrating to play the same song and dance year after year. Might be time to move north soon.:axe:

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beanskip

beanskip

Posted
Posted

Interesting new AFD from GSP:

  

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 305 PM EST Friday: Forecast becoming a little more complicated
as the latest data arrives. The 18z FFC RAOB shows a 7 degree C warm
nose near h85 while the 18Z GSO RAOB "warm" nose near H75 is just
below freezing. An 18Z sounding issued by UNC Asheville looks
similar to GSO. Latest AMDAR soundings near CLT show a small 1 to 2
degree C warm nose. Therefore, the actual atmosphere could be more
like the 12Z NAM forecast soundings with a lingering warm nose
instead of the 12Z GFS soundings with little to no warm nose. Given
these features, expect precip to start out as snow or maybe a snow
sleet mix over the mountains and much of NC, with rain and sleet mix
elsewhere.

Precip ramps up this evening as strong forcing and deep moisture
move in from the west. A Miller A low moves from the Gulf Coast to
the Atlantic coast overnight. The right entrance region of an upper
jet moves over with good upper divergence. This provides the
synoptic forcing for widespread precipitation. Expect there will be
some banding overnight with with frontogenetical forcing and
slant-wise instability developing. However, trying to peg that down
is problematic at best. The warm nose will factor in as well, with
rain and sleet lingering over the southern tier before changing over
to snow or a snow/sleet mix. Expect mostly snow or a quick
transition north of the I-85 corridor. The GFS, and its ensembles,
remain colder with more snow while the NAM and SREF show the warm
nose and less snow. Used a blend of the GFS and NAM, with a trend
toward the GFS due to its consistency for forecast thermal profiles
and the resulting p-types and accums. This keeps our storm total
along and north of the I-85 corridor similar to previous forecasts,
but lowers totals to the south. That said, will keep the warnings in
place over the southern tier as the combination of p-types and
impacts should rise to warning criteria. Warnings remain well placed
to the north. With cold temps in place and increasing winds, wind
chill values in the high elevations could fall to 5 below. This is
covered by the going WSW.

Precip will taper off quickly Saturday morning and end before noon
as the upper and surface systems move away from the area taking the
moisture and forcing with them. Should be breezy to windy during the
morning with winds tapering off by late afternoon. Will likely see
some sun as well. However, highs will likely be below freezing
across much of the area, with mid 30s developing along the Upper
Savannah River valley. This may just set the stage for black ice
where any snow can melt.
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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, beanskip said:

Interesting new AFD from GSP:

  


.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 305 PM EST Friday: Forecast becoming a little more complicated
as the latest data arrives. The 18z FFC RAOB shows a 7 degree C warm
nose near h85 while the 18Z GSO RAOB "warm" nose near H75 is just
below freezing. An 18Z sounding issued by UNC Asheville looks
similar to GSO. Latest AMDAR soundings near CLT show a small 1 to 2
degree C warm nose. Therefore, the actual atmosphere could be more
like the 12Z NAM forecast soundings with a lingering warm nose
instead of the 12Z GFS soundings with little to no warm nose. Given
these features, expect precip to start out as snow or maybe a snow
sleet mix over the mountains and much of NC, with rain and sleet mix
elsewhere.

Precip ramps up this evening as strong forcing and deep moisture
move in from the west. A Miller A low moves from the Gulf Coast to
the Atlantic coast overnight. The right entrance region of an upper
jet moves over with good upper divergence. This provides the
synoptic forcing for widespread precipitation. Expect there will be
some banding overnight with with frontogenetical forcing and
slant-wise instability developing. However, trying to peg that down
is problematic at best. The warm nose will factor in as well, with
rain and sleet lingering over the southern tier before changing over
to snow or a snow/sleet mix. Expect mostly snow or a quick
transition north of the I-85 corridor. The GFS, and its ensembles,
remain colder with more snow while the NAM and SREF show the warm
nose and less snow. Used a blend of the GFS and NAM, with a trend
toward the GFS due to its consistency for forecast thermal profiles
and the resulting p-types and accums. This keeps our storm total
along and north of the I-85 corridor similar to previous forecasts,
but lowers totals to the south. That said, will keep the warnings in
place over the southern tier as the combination of p-types and
impacts should rise to warning criteria. Warnings remain well placed
to the north. With cold temps in place and increasing winds, wind
chill values in the high elevations could fall to 5 below. This is
covered by the going WSW.

Precip will taper off quickly Saturday morning and end before noon
as the upper and surface systems move away from the area taking the
moisture and forcing with them. Should be breezy to windy during the
morning with winds tapering off by late afternoon. Will likely see
some sun as well. However, highs will likely be below freezing
across much of the area, with mid 30s developing along the Upper
Savannah River valley. This may just set the stage for black ice
where any snow can melt.

Started as snow here no sleet. 

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NC_WX10

NC_WX10

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

HRRR just takes every other model accumulation map and shifts it 50 miles NW. 

Seems like this is a quick hitter too. Maybe 8 hours of snow? 

I was going to ask the same thing. The HRRR moves it in here and it's gone just like that. Don't remember other models showing only 8-10 hours of precip. 

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CherokeeGA

CherokeeGA

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Tanith said:

Ha, someone is a Game of Thrones fan!

The one yesterday was "Winter is Coming" along with the Houses.  It was cute.

FFC has also significantly (in some cases) lowered temps tonight.  I can't believe I'm saying this***, but I don't think those of us northwest of I-85 have much to worry about, we will see some accumulation:

 

image_full3.png

*** I shouldn't say this, b/c in 2014 we were supposed to get 5" and we got dryslotted and less than .5".  It was a sad day.

 

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Jet Stream Rider

Jet Stream Rider

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Yeah, bigtime sleet fest.  Should make for a quite night's sleep.

Where is Jet Stream Rider with his analysis maps to tell us how this thing is bombing out or moving farther south or is colder than forecast!?

Catching up! So far there is nothing to bomb out because there is not a slp in the GoM yet! Latest Hrrr has me in the sleet fest too. Best of luck though. Let us see how it looks when all the components are in place. Maybe midnight?! lol

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atlweatherman

atlweatherman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

FFC has really increased snowfall totals. Possibly up to 6" of snow even south of I-20 !  4-6" from Carrollton to Dahlonega and points northwest

Yes indeed! Actually says HEAVY snow tonight. Hopefully, this is a good sign for the rest of ATL Metro- especially along I-20.

Heavy Snow Carrolton, GA 1.6.17.JPG

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