griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Great stuff as always. Thank you. Really helps illustrate how all of these processes relate to each other. Hopefully, we can crash the warm nose east a little sooner than forecast with this one, though that's not seeming like a high probability at present. Yeah nice write up from Phil....and for my laymen's comments on it, the upper wave at 500mb kind of dictates everything. In the Jan 2002 storm for example that hit ATL to RDU (a different setup with a very strong diving upper wave/low), the 500mb vort max tracked through S GA into S SC and the 850mb low popped in NE SC. That's ideal for you and I. Ideally, both of those features are farther south than they are with this storm. That keeps all of the elevated warmth out of play and it's a more dynamic storm as the 500mb wave/vort, 850 low, and sfc low are all closer together. You can see it here - http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2002/us0103.php Of course, there are other types of setups that give us snow...like Jan 1988 which was strong overrunning into a very cold airmass (diff setup) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Nasty Warm nose needs to get worked out ! Can rates overcome it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCC49er Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago If nothing else, the GFS is stubborn on attempt at all time record lows in central NC That is absolutely insane, but makes sense with the snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Yeah nice write up from Phil....and for my laymen's comments on it, the upper wave at 500mb kind of dictates everything. In the Jan 2002 storm for example that hit ATL to RDU (a different setup with a very strong diving upper wave/low), the 500mb vort max tracked through S GA into S SC and the 850mb low popped in NE SC. That's ideal for you and I. Ideally, both of those features are farther south than they are with this storm. That keeps all of the elevated warmth out of play and it's a more dynamic storm as the 500mb wave/vort, 850 low, and sfc low are all closer together. You can see it here - http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2002/us0103.php Of course, there are other types of setups that give us snow...like Jan 1988 which was strong overrunning into a very cold airmass (diff setup) Yeah, that's good stuff. Seems like lately, most 850 lows go right over the Triangle. Would love to get a true overrunning event again. We just don't see those outside of the digital universe anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 42 minutes ago, JQPublic said: Chatham County Line doing work son! Good luck to all! (My house is a gnat's wing north of that red circle.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, phil882 said: Careful though... because upstream obs show that the warm nose is actually strongest a little bit above 850-hPa which also is showing up on the forecast HRRR soundings near Raleigh overnight. I fear that a lot of the snow in the Euro Snowfall maps may actually be heavy sleet... This seems pretty typical for NC winter storms. That 750-800 mb layer loves to screw us over. I've seen it many times in my time following these things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Fwiw hrrr seems to keep shifting snow rain line south. Hopefully a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 i know that this is out of our area but what is going on in Memphis it looks like snow bands but they are in north to south orientation moving due south? Meanwhile the main band of precipitation is moving east what is going on lol ??? http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=nqa&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, griteater said: Yeah nice write up from Phil....and for my laymen's comments on it, the upper wave at 500mb kind of dictates everything. In the Jan 2002 storm for example that hit ATL to RDU (a different setup with a very strong diving upper wave/low), the 500mb vort max tracked through S GA into S SC and the 850mb low popped in NE SC. That's ideal for you and I. Ideally, both of those features are farther south than they are with this storm. That keeps all of the elevated warmth out of play and it's a more dynamic storm as the 500mb wave/vort, 850 low, and sfc low are all closer together. You can see it here - http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2002/us0103.php Of course, there are other types of setups that give us snow...like Jan 1988 which was strong overrunning into a very cold airmass (diff setup) Good point... see in the case of the the Jan 2002 storm you had a lot of upper-level forcing that was running the show (i.e., the 500hPa low was stronger than the sfc vortex) so where the 500-hPa low went, so did the other low-level features in tandem slightly to the south and east (with the exception of the sfc vortex). The surface vortex is a trickier entity to figure out because at the surface there is always a lot of natural baroclinicity offshore (because the gulf stream is so warm, and the land immediately adjacent is typically much colder). This event is closer in setup to the January 1988 snowstorm which was almost all frontogenesis/overrunning precipitation which featured a broad open 500-hPa wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Fwiw hrrr seems to keep shifting snow rain line south. Hopefully a trend Cary's getting HRRRd! Don't do it man! I've seen it do that before, only to break your heart with wintry mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, phil882 said: Good point... see in the case of the the Jan 2002 storm you had a lot of upper-level forcing that was running the show (i.e., the 500hPa low was stronger than the sfc vortex) so where the 500-hPa low went, so did the other low-level features in tandem slightly to the south and east (with the exception of the sfc vortex). The surface vortex is a trickier entity to figure out because at the surface there is always a lot of natural baroclinicity offshore (because the gulf stream is so warm, and the land immediately adjacent is typically much colder). This event is closer in setup to the January 1988 snowstorm which was almost all frontogenesis/overrunning precipitation which featured a broad open 500-hPa wave. 2 29 years to the date of the 88 storm. Thanks for the thoughts Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Cary's getting HRRRd! Don't do it man! I've seen it do that before, only to break your heart with wintry mix. Yes, I noticed 18z ticked south and east around CLT as well. This is going to drive me and my family crazy the rest of the night. I don't know why I do this to myself... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Yep. Short term modeling does seem to be coming in a bit colder. Interested in the next RGEM in a bit. Plus, this tweet: Samuel Roback @Weathermansam77 14m14 minutes ago Interesting discrepancy b/t RAP/OBS. CAA in obs sounding 50-100hPa deeper than what RAP depicted. Colder 2mT/Td and drier low lvls than fcst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowNiner said: Yes, I noticed 18z ticked south and east around CLT as well. This is going to drive me and my family crazy the rest of the night. I don't know why I do this to myself... The 18z broadened the transition zone. Looks like I'm safely in the pink for the whole storm, except for the last half hour or so of flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 FWIW, the 18z RAP is 3 degrees too warm at the surface IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: The 18z broadened the transition zone. Looks like I'm safely in the pink for the whole storm, except for the last half hour or so of flurries. It wouldn't be a SE storm unless CLT and RDU would close to the transition zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, snowinnc said: Can you please sign, seal and deliver that? Thank you! Here's the most recent run for the same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 That last HRRR is still good. All of wake in purple. Snow/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, PackGrad05 said: That last HRRR is still good. All of wake in purple. Snow/sleet. it's trending better for us. Hopefully it continues the closer we get. for once i wanna be surprised with more snow instead of sleet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: That last HRRR is still good. All of wake in purple. Snow/sleet. Yeah, bigtime sleet fest. Should make for a quite night's sleep. Where is Jet Stream Rider with his analysis maps to tell us how this thing is bombing out or moving farther south or is colder than forecast!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Here's the most recent run for the same time period. Yeah, that one belongs in the trash and needs to be burned. At least sleet makes for good sledding! I still want snow dang it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, snowinnc said: Yeah, that one belongs in the trash and needs to be burned. At least sleet makes for good sledding! I still want snow dang it! It's also drier upstream as well. And the snow line isn't anywhere close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Probably shouldn't even be used but the 18z nam is ridiculously wet for the triad. Over 1.3 for GSO!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 15 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: It's also drier upstream as well. And the snow line isn't anywhere close. Lines up almost exactly with what Phil was posting an hour or so ago. Grim for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Taking the models (including HRRR) and holding it to face value is not the way it works. We know the transition and mix will be somewhere. A couple weeks ago we would all have given anything for 1-2 inches of snow. I'll gladly take 1-2 inches in southern wake and be done with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pack83 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Not sure how well RAP does with qpf but 18z is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Atlanta seems to be throwing in the towel. Cut off line on GFS exactly mirrors the Feb 25, 2015 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Current HRRR snow, still snowing BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said: Probably shouldn't even be used but the 18z nam is ridiculously wet for the triad. Over 1.3 for GSO!! Matches HRR that just ran. Tell you Asheboro up to GSO looks good, but no wiggle room left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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