phobos Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, LovingGulfLows said: If you want snow, the entire column needs to be below freezing(both 850s and 925s). If you want more sleet instead of rain, you need the 925s to be below freezing. that's what I thought and makes perfect sense. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I'm really starting to worry about temps. It's warmed up way more than expected. Already 39 degrees and its almost noon. Wouldn't be surprised if it hits 45. What is your dewpoint? It will drop with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, DopplerWx said: im going to ride the gfs until the wheels fall off. would be a jackpot rdu hit IF it verified. I like the all snow sounding but precip looks under done maybe? Thought many models had us at 1" or slightly over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, LovingGulfLows said: If you want snow, the entire column needs to be below freezing(both 850s and 925s). If you want more sleet instead of rain, you need the 925s to be below freezing. Sorry to correct this but you want the wetbulb of the column to be below freezing. Just last Saturday we got snow flurries and the 850s were +5 but the wet bulb was minus 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, HWY316wx said: I don't blame you. I have a lot of friends in Athens who are just super upset with this setup. LOL I am in Dunwoody - off 400/exit 6. I have never really seen sleet pile up. Are we thinking that could be a possibility....like inches of sleet. I think I read sleet is 4 to 1 ratios. So .25 precip would be an inch of sleet, .5 precip would be 2 inches of sleet....is this possible? Just curious because I can't really recall that ever happening here before.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Per GFS still looking ok for RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: If you want snow, the entire column needs to be below freezing(both 850s and 925s). If you want more sleet instead of rain, you need the 925s to be below freezing. Sleet and FZRA are tricky. I've seen sleet with a below freezing layer at the surface only 1,500 feet deep, and I've seen FZRA with a below freezing layer 3000ft deep. Sometimes droplet size, as well as depth of that warm layer above as well as how high it is factors in. There have been studies on some events that baffled forecasts where FZRA was forecast and it was all sleet despite a FZRA sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUProud Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 For those in the know, I live southwest of Atlanta (newnan area) and I'm getting concerned about a freezing rain/sleet event. With heavy sleet in Mississippi causing numerous accidents, do you think that could be an issue here late this afternoon? Temp is currently 36. I want to make sure family and friends are aware and not caught off guard. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: I like the all snow sounding but precip looks under done maybe? Thought many models had us at 1" or slightly over. sorry, was the 18z run, i edited to show 12z, 1.2" qpf all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, DopplerWx said: sorry, was the 18z run, i edited to show 12z, 1.2" qpf all snow You would think we should be thrilled seeing that 12 hours before onset lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 It just seems so hard to get snow south of I-20 unless there's an ULL overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, AUProud said: For those in the know, I live southwest of Atlanta (newnan area) and I'm getting concerned about a freezing rain/sleet event. With heavy sleet in Mississippi causing numerous accidents, do you think that could be an issue here late this afternoon? Temp is currently 36. I want to make sure family and friends are aware and not caught off guard. Thanks in advance. Absolutely could be an issue which is why the warning down there. Just play it safe and if you luck up and it's just a cold rain, enjoy a beer by the fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncjibble Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 14 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: This model knows exactly where I live. This sucks so bad! I've lurked here for years and hardly ever post, but this post is my thoughts exactly! I'm in that little yellow dot too, maybe a hair north. Just once, it would be nice for Wake county to not be the dividing line. I feel like South/East Wake is always on the wrong side. I have completely lowered my expectations and would be thrilled to just get enough of anything to cover the grass and go sledding! This feels so much like the one last year where there was so much potential at the beginning and all we ended up with was rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Channel 2 says no snow in Newnan and most areas south of I-20. Rain changing to freezing rain/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, uncjibble said: I've lurked here for years and hardly ever post, but this post is my thoughts exactly! I'm in that little yellow dot too, maybe a hair north. Just once, it would be nice for Wake county to not be the dividing line. I feel like South/East Wake is always on the wrong side. I have completely lowered my expectations and would be thrilled to just get enough of anything to cover the grass and go sledding! This feels so much like the one last year where there was so much potential at the beginning and all we ended up with was rain. I'm with you. I'm legitimately becoming concerned that we get more rain than forecast. On the bright side, if it does sleet, the sledding should be awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I dont have the ability to screenshot his post, but our boy Philippe is weighing in on the thermal issue with his technical prowess... Worth a look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 It's 36 degrees in my location, and the dewpoint is 25. Does it look like the cold air will really push in sooner than forecasted? Or will it start snowing/icing at like 8 or 9pm for me? I was hoping for atleast 4 or 5 inches, but 2 or 3 would make me content... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 31 minutes ago, Snow Wisher said: Could someone post this map showing Mississippi? We are getting heavy sleet here in EC MS Here you go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlountCountyALwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 That warm nose. Not snowing in Blount County AL like radar is showing. Cold rain. Started as sleet and quickly changed to mix (mostly rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Wisher Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Here you go... Thanks, Grit! WSW just issued for our area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, GlaringSun said: It's 36 degrees in my location, and the dewpoint is 25. Does it look like the cold air will really push in sooner than forecasted? Or will it start snowing/icing at like 8 or 9pm for me? I was hoping for atleast 4 or 5 inches, but 2 or 3 would make me content... Right now I continue to be concerned of an earlier changeover to FZRA or PL in ATL than models show because the very low DPs advecting in, little solar heating as temps have gone nowhere, and the fact no precip is falling which some models showed yesterday. The later the precip arrives there, the more the wet bulbing potential can be maximized by allowing DPs to drop and then temps to plummet when precip starts. If you precipitate too early, you saturate too early and then can be hard to get it below 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, localyokelweather said: I dont have the ability to screenshot his post, but our boy Philippe is weighing in on the thermal issue with his technical prowess... And to the earlier question on FGEN, Phillppe also has detailed HRRR model images centered over our area (at bottom of his page) - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Like Allan Huffman said, even if the NAM is right and RDU gets 7 inches of snow, 2 inches of sleet, and 2 to 3 more inches of snow on top it's still going to be a big deal and a mess. That would actually be more of a mess than a foot of all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, LovingGulfLows said: Where the 850 line is now won't matter once this storm begins to develop and ramps up. The track of the 850 low will create big winners and losers. I don't really see a bonafied 850 with this, very weak and diffuse until it starts to wrap up off the VA Capes. GSP to ORF is the general track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Well it looks like we've got the moisture in Eastern NC but the temperature won't allow for much snow accumulation or am I wrong? I know 15 miles can mean the difference between cold rain, sleet or snow. I'm ok with potential power outages as long as there is something pretty to look at. I'm sitting here at a temp of 45 degrees with a dew point of 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Enhanced frontogenesis should help with higher rates and cooler temps aloft, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Like Allan Huffman said, even if the NAM is right and RDU gets 7 inches of snow, 2 inches of sleet, and 2 to 3 more inches of snow on top it's still going to be a big deal and a mess. That would actually be more of a mess than a foot of all snow. My guess for us is 3-4" sleet and snow combined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Right now I continue to be concerned of an earlier changeover to FZRA or PL in ATL than models show because the very low DPs advecting in, little solar heating as temps have gone nowhere, and the fact no precip is falling which some models showed yesterday. The later the precip arrives there, the more the wet bulbing potential can be maximized by allowing DPs to drop and then temps to plummet when precip starts. I'm actually hoping for an earlier changeover to frozen precip (of any kind, including FZRA). So it's looking like that'll be the case instead of the changeover being at 8 or 9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Like Allan Huffman said, even if the NAM is right and RDU gets 7 inches of snow, 2 inches of sleet, and 2 to 3 more inches of snow on top it's still going to be a big deal and a mess. That would actually be more of a mess than a foot of all snow. I am only a contractor but have seen over the past 25 years of plowing that when sleet starts alot of times it never goes back to snow. Hopefully this is not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 15z RAP had a 16" bullseye near matthews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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