beanskip Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Pretty big move NW of the frozen precip field in the 12GFS vs. 6z GFS -- that was a game changer if you live in a 25 mile wide strip on the changeover line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 That new GFS looks bleak my way!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, BlueRidgeFolklore said: I saw what the model said, I'm just going with what I think will be realistic for those areas. 10-12" in the Balsams and atop Mt. Pisgah is very likely. I gotcha. Yeah, I agree, i think it's over done too. I wouldn't be surprised to see a place like highlands get 12+ with that much qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, NC_hailstorm said: 850 line currently is right on the NC/SC border right through CLT and a little south of Raleigh.-2 to -3 up across the I-40 corrider. Where the 850 line is now won't matter once this storm begins to develop and ramps up. The track of the 850 low will create big winners and losers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 CLT is .1 above freezing at 800 on the GFS. Rates should overcome that easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 What should be all snow on left and the sleet on the right...per GFS. Just crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said: I gotcha. Yeah, I agree, i think it's over done too. I wouldn't be surprised to see a place like highlands get 12+ with that much qpf. Sapphire Valley, Highlands, Cashiers, Balsam Grove, Lake Toxaway. Those areas may see a foot. I think for Franklin, Brevard, Hendersonville could all see in the 6-8" range. These areas always do go with winter storms coming out of the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I would love to be in Cashiers or Highlands for this one but i'm gonna stick it out here and hope i get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: What should be all snow on left and the sleet on the right...per GFS. Just crazy. Does anyone have soundings or total precip outputs for CLT? Gonna be a lot of rain, I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, LovingGulfLows said: Atlanta got screwed by the last minute trends yet again. Dissapointing...at this rate IMBY I'll be lucky to get an inch. Yep. I'm in a little worse shape here ene of you. The only thing "good" I could see for our back yards in this run is the GFS paints a rather intense band of rain overhead this evening. So, in full weenie mode, maybe, just maybe we see a surprise dynamic cooling miracle. Actually considered a chase since I could damn near walk, but with the cold following this storm don't want to get stuck away from home for a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 12 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Where is moto? Gfs just dumped a foot at his house! LOL...Just saw that. GFS really up ticked the main heavy QPF band along with the RGEM. But NAM cut it big time for some reason. Personally I would put more weight with the GFS/RGEM. But I still feel pretty good for 3-4" at least for Dahlonega. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said: Yep. I'm in a little worse shape here ene of you. The only thing "good" I could see for our back yards in this run is the GFS paints a rather intense band of rain overhead this evening. So, in full weenie mode, maybe, just maybe we see a surprise dynamic cooling miracle. Actually considered a chase since I could damn near walk, but with the cold following this storm don't want to get stuck away from home for a couple of days. Yeah the cold after the storm is what worries me. I would go on a snow chase if I knew it would melt relatively quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Wild Weather Monger said: Yep. I'm in a little worse shape here ene of you. The only thing "good" I could see for our back yards in this run is the GFS paints a rather intense band of rain overhead this evening. So, in full weenie mode, maybe, just maybe we see a surprise dynamic cooling miracle. Actually considered a chase since I could damn near walk, but with the cold following this storm don't want to get stuck away from home for a couple of days. Don't count on dynamic cooling to save you until after midnight at the very least. The fast SW winds at the 850 levels are going to kill you until the 850 mb low is far enough for the north winds to cool down the lower levels again. That's not projected on models until possibly even 2 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, Cheeznado said: Well, damn. This looks like a few earlier GFS runs. FWIW the 12Z RPM has less than this, 2-4 across most of north GA from ATL north. Also, the cold air is really coming in, KPDK is down to 34/25. Hmmmmm. After days of thinking this would mostly be south of us, I'm starting to hope we'll get a few inches. You might have some good luck around here, we're a bit southeast of Ball Ground. The bufkit at kpdk has it at 7.1" sn when I last looked. For what that's worth. KPDK is still some 16-18 miles south of me, though, and over the ridge. I have often wished we had a station a bit more central to north GA, there's nothing between KPDK and KBRA/KCHA and that's a lot of pretty fairly populated land between those three. 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I'll be living vicariously in your obs thread. I'm really stoked for you folks that get hit flush. I've said multiple times over the years that I root for you guys and I hope this one closes interstates and paralyzes neighborhoods for a little while. Some may think that's a nasty thing to root for but anyone who knows me...that's how I roll. And I know it's how many of you roll too. Even a fair # of those who deny it. LOL Mr. Chill, as long as it happens on a weekend, I say shut it ALL down. Jan 2011 was great for that reason, it happened on a Sunday and so we were all home (for days, heh). I only get unhappy about it when kids are on buses at 3am because nobody here ever wants to close a school or business on a weekday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said: LOL...Just saw that. GFS really up ticked the main heavy QPF band along with the RGEM. But NAM cut it big time for some reason. Personally I would put more weight with the GFS/RGEM. But I still feel pretty good for 3-4" at least for Dahlonega. Think it will cross the mountain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 21 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: That warm nose in NE GA concerns me. Isn't that near Lookout's house ? yep. With each run the models have trended slightly warmer..sometimes just a half a degree. Up until now the temps aloft and just above the surface made me believe snow was likely to overcome any near ground warm layer where i'm at. But with each run this is becoming less likely...to the point now that unless there is some truly heavy precip/strong dynamical cooling processes...accumulations here..even of sleet...seem to be slimmer and slimmer. To be sure things haven't changed a hell of a lot for most...it's just that i've been right on the line for a while and these tiny changes mean a lot where i'm at. So that doesn't mean the same applies for areas just north of here...generally along and north of a line from just north of athens to royston to hartwell should be ok...although sleet will probably be an issue. But where i'm at, east of athens, it looks like a no go for the most part....so it looks like i'm going to head to gainesville this afternoon. don't think i could possibly sit here and watch it pour rain while 30 miles away they are getting slammed. I have to be back by monday...preferably late sunday afternoon though... i just hope i actually can if it snows that 10 to 12 inches lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Here are the warmest panels with respect to CLT to RDU on the RGEM and GFS. Very similar with the 0 deg line, but go with the higher resolution RGEM in terms of the tight packing / gradient in the contours just north of the 0 deg line. Going to see enhanced precip where that gradient packs (frontogenesis). This suggests somewhere NW of Charlotte, to Hickory, to Greensboro and Burlington is potentially in the sweet spot in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 This would never melt! Allan Huffman@RaleighWx NAM soundings for RDU airport Suggest 7 inches of snow, then about 2 inches of sleet, and another 2-3 inches of snow. What a mess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 ^ Corrected my statement...meant to say NW of Charlotte to Hickory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: Don't count on dynamic cooling to save you until after midnight at the very least. The fast SW winds at the 850 levels are going to kill you until the 850 mb low is far enough for the north winds to cool down the lower levels again. That's not projected on models until possibly even 2 AM. Oh, I'm certainly not counting on it lol. But I'll admit, I will be starring out the back door looking for a sleet pellet or flake to mix in hoping for a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Here are the warmest panels with respect to CLT to RDU on the RGEM and GFS. Very similar with the 0 deg line, but go with the higher resolution RGEM in terms of the tight packing / gradient in the contours just north of the 0 deg line. Going to see enhanced precip where that gradient packs (frontogenesis). This suggests somewhere NW of Hickory, to Hickory, to Greensboro and Burlington is potentially in the sweet spot in this area. That pretty much shows exactly what I'm talking about when it comes to the 850 mb low. Those just under it will get enhanced lift because of the colder north/northeast winds and warmer South/Southwest winds colliding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Total QPF on RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The track of this system looks like a decent track for the Triangle back toward Charlotte in terms of snow, but the thermals don't match that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Here are the warmest panels with respect to CLT to RDU on the RGEM and GFS. Very similar with the 0 deg line, but go with the higher resolution RGEM in terms of the tight packing / gradient in the contours just north of the 0 deg line. Going to see enhanced precip where that gradient packs (frontogenesis). This suggests somewhere NW of Hickory, to Hickory, to Greensboro and Burlington is potentially in the sweet spot in this area. Grit, if those are the warmest panels, I'm confused why models (especially short term) are now showing plain rain for a good portion of the storm for CLT and points SE. Overdoing WAA somehow, I hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, rosie said: Think it will cross the mountain? Yes. I think you will get 2-3" out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: Here are the warmest panels with respect to CLT to RDU on the RGEM and GFS. Very similar with the 0 deg line, but go with the higher resolution RGEM in terms of the tight packing / gradient in the contours just north of the 0 deg line. Going to see enhanced precip where that gradient packs (frontogenesis). This suggests somewhere NW of Hickory, to Hickory, to Greensboro and Burlington is potentially in the sweet spot in this area. Grit, do you have links to any FGEN products? Lost my links for those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raine1212 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Light Rain has started in Evans, Ga, 46 degrees. Hope this allowed here if not please direct me where I need to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Raine1212 said: Light Rain has started in Evans, Ga, 46 degrees. Hope this allowed here if not please direct me where I need to be Here https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49517-jan-6-8-winter-storm-observations/?page=3#comment-4393734 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowDeac said: Grit, if those are the warmest panels, I'm confused why models (especially short term) are now showing plain rain for a good portion of the storm for CLT and points SE. Overdoing WAA somehow, I hope? Was going to ask the same thing. Just looking at those maps, that doesn't look as terrible from CLT to RDU as the P-type maps. Maybe the modeled warm nose is stronger at a slightly lower or higher level than 850mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 When we get in this super short range I like to track the HRRR model for potential shifts. It runs every hour and the latest 14z run has the heavy precip band further north for sure across GA. I don't really like it for P-Type stuff so this look all I'm interested in is the potential radar presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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