wncsnow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 GFS showing a little more precip to the NW again this run, looks like the RGEM, low crosses FL near the big bend area and exits off Jacksonville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 NAM bufkit is a foot for CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Well here is the meteo for Raleigh, just NW it may be all snow and just SE may be all sleet. I feel like if you bisect Wake Co, the NW half will be mostly snow and the SE will be 50/50 mix. Well atleast I hope I am 50/50 sleet. Verbatim this is showing 4-6" of snow/sleet. Pretty much a Jan 96 or 10 gradient. We don't have HP in the perfect spot, which is what we need for all snow. It's definitely going to be tough to watch tonight. I grew up in Fayetteville and I always got so angry because when we got 2 inches of rain Wake County would get 6 inches of snow. I would get stuck going to school when kids in the triangle we're out for a week. I was always jealous of kids that lived in Raleigh but now not so much. Can't it go just a little more SE, just a tad bit? 25 miles seriously isn't asking for that much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 GFS corrects itself north to the mesoscale models lol. Looks like NAM will probably be the winner of this storm when it's all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlweatherman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Looks more amped up on the latest GFS 12z run coming in. Notice the blow up of accumulations going from Miss through AL at hr 18- looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Queencitywx said: NAM bufkit is a foot for CLT Wow, fun little reversal here. Usually, NAM starts out with absurd QPF then ratchets down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Swarm of lightning strikes on the LA coast in the gulf.Pressure lowering a little south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, burgertime said: Wow, fun little reversal here. Usually, NAM starts out with absurd QPF then ratchets down. GFS should be a foot also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The 12z GFS goes with a HKY-GSO-RIC jackpot, with QPF not quite as prolific as the short range models (probably more realistic). Biggest totals (maybe around a foot) just NW of ORF to the southern tip of the Delmarva Peninsula. CLT-proper (as in the airport) looks good, I think, but mixing would definitely be an issue S/E of town, and maybe in town. Oh, there's also a secondary jackpot in Franklin's neck of the woods in the SW NC mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: NAM bufkit is a foot for CLT Where are you pulling Bufkit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: compare that compare that to the NAM for RDU Where'd this graphic come from ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 GFS smacks the mountains pretty good, Mt. Mitchell will like get over 15 inches with this setup and the Balsams will cash in too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Holy gfs!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 That warm nose in NE GA concerns me. Isn't that near Lookout's house ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 GFS keeps all of Wake County in the good stuff, but the dropoff looks to be right at the Harnett/Wake line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 GFS snow totals via Stormvista... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Where are you pulling Bufkit? http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=kclt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Birmingham NWS just sent up another balloon. Should find out shortly if warm nose between 2500' and 8000' has eroded. Reports of heavy sleet in Meridian, MS on Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, wncsnow said: GFS smacks the mountains pretty good, Mt. Mitchell will like get over 15 inches with this setup and the Balsams will cash in too... Southern Upslope areas would likely cash in very good as well. 6-7"+ for Southern Jackson, Transylvania and most of Henderson I would assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, BlueRidgeFolklore said: Southern Upslope areas would likely cash in very good as well. 6-7"+ for Southern Jackson, Transylvania and most of Henderson I would assume. It's more 10-12 off the 12z gfs. It's probably over done but the nam, rgem, sref and now the gfs have over .6 inches in southern macon, jackson, and transylvania counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, atlweatherman said: Looks more amped up on the latest GFS 12z run coming in. Notice the blow up of accumulations going from Miss through AL at hr 18- looks good. Those totals are jacked up due to IP and ZR in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I see you GFS sneaking that foot into the northern tip of Wake. Such a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said: It's more 10-12 off the 12z gfs. It's probably over done but the nam, rgem, sref and now the gfs have over .6 inches in southern macon, jackson, and transylvania counties. And with NWS liking the GFS with the blend... Yup game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: I see you GFS sneaking that foot into the northern tip of Wake. Such a tease. Tropical Tidbits map has a big number 14 over your house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, franklin NCwx said: It's more 10-12 off the 12z gfs. It's probably over done but the nam, rgem, sref and now the gfs have over .6 inches in southern macon, jackson, and transylvania counties. I saw what the model said, I'm just going with what I think will be realistic for those areas. 10-12" in the Balsams and atop Mt. Pisgah is very likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
claycochaser Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, HWY316wx said: Those totals are jacked up due to IP and ZR in my opinion. Most definitely. That's a terrible algorithm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 So the cutoff line had Beaufort County getting around 10 inches now we might not see a dusting. I'm my sure why I get excited about these things. It seems to always show snow for us and then the line moves NW. I was looking forward to it but good luck to everyone. Be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 850 line currently is right on the NC/SC border right through CLT and a little south of Raleigh.-2 to -3 up across the I-40 corrider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Well took it long enough but the GFS forgoes the idea of sending the LP to Tampa and sends it now to Jacksonville. May not be done coming NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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