LovingGulfLows Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnowDeac said: This seems scarily close to a Feb 2015 redux for the CLT metro. That under-performed badly for everyone, and the southern parts of the metro were left with a slushy/sleety inch or two. Very concerning to see the short term models increasing 850s during the storm, while the globals have been crashing temps for many runs in a row. Seems global models can't pick up on the 850mb low that passes to the west of Charlotte and the SW winds begin to pick up in the 850s levels. The 850mb low placement will pretty much tell the story for most areas on the edge. You'd rather be to the North, East or under the 850mb low as it passes so the warmer WSW winds can't screw you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 With these short range models, I am sitting on the edge of my seat in the West Ga area. Have had some good hopes for at least 2-4 inches of snow and was willing to accept the inch of sleet. Now I am concerned with more freezing rain and sleet and no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Yep, calc I like this setup for your area. Should be a good looking radar once it gets cranking tonight. I don't see a lee side drying scenario for this one...we'll see. I still like a more conservative 3-6 down this way in CLT area as there could very well be some sleet mixing. Also, I still view this as more of a 'moderate' level storm in central NC. It's a good one, but we don't have a closing off and strengthening low at 700mb where the flow gets backed strongly to the NW (similar thoughts at 850mb). Here are the warmest RGEM panels with respect to Charlotte to RaleighThanks for talking me off the ledge, Grit. Great analysis, as always.Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boknows34 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, philconnors said: Couple of things. Not buying the ice solution. Goes against climo. Calera is BMX which is 45 mins south. I think N and NW/NE sections of BHM are going to be fine. We are on the NW side of the SLP and we have an arctic frontal boundary with 20-25:1 ratios over N. AL. How do we get ZR? Thanks!! Kinda what I thought...I know living in the extreme NE part of Jefferson County, it helps me out a lot...I'm straddling the Jefferson/St. Clair County line...I work in Helena, but live in Trussville and usually and I can watch the temp drop in the car on the way home sometimes 3-4 degrees in just that short ride...In the Winter months of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Is this going to be a snow/rain line? Or will it transition to sleet in between? Hoping we at least stay sleet south of charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Here's the final map from the RGEM. A little more came in the latter frames for the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: Seems global models can't pick up on the 850mb low that passes to the west of Charlotte and the SW winds begin to pick up in the 850s levels. The 850mb low placement will pretty much tell the story for most areas on the edge. You'd rather be to the North, East or under the 850mb low as it passes so the warmer WSW winds can't screw you. Wouldn't we want the 850 low pass to our south and east to avoid WSW winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Normally NAM thermals are underdone for CLT in my experience. Mixing line should reach Toutman IMO. I seen this with Dec 2010, models expectantly underestimated the warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, broken024 said: Is this going to be a snow/rain line? Or will it transition to sleet in between? Hoping we at least stay sleet south of charlotte Conventional thinking with this event has been a narrow transition zone, snow to ip to rain. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, packfan98 said: Here's the final map from the RGEM. A little more came in the latter frames for the Triangle. Sucks for RDU, going to miss heavy snows by just miles again. 85/40 corridor looks sweet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
claycochaser Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, philconnors said: Couple of things. Not buying the ice solution. Goes against climo. Calera is BMX which is 45 mins south. I think N and NW/NE sections of BHM are going to be fine. We are on the NW side of the SLP and we have an arctic frontal boundary with 20-25:1 ratios over N. AL. How do we get ZR? Because there's a layer 1 mile deep above the surface that's 2-3 C. That's how. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I've come to terms with my getting 2-3" of sleet, and I'm ok with that! I am really on razors edge!! It's not quite the GOAT is it? 29 years ago to the day (Jan 7, 1988) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, packfan98 said: RDU is in the mix on the RGEM. I was hoping that the snow line would correct a little more SE on this hi-res runs this morning. The nam did somewhat, the RGEM went the other way for the Triangle. Well that's just flat out depressing. We might just get totally blanked in Wake County. Is there any chance that this could actually move south or is it just going to keep moving NW? I can't remember the last time NW SC got more snow than Wake County. Congrats to the Triad and Charlotte though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, griteater said: It's not quite the GOAT is it? 29 years ago to the day (Jan 7, 1988) Wow, I didnt even think about that? Wouldnt it be something if we pulled one out of the hat and matched 88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Amos83 said: Wouldn't we want the 850 low pass to our south and east to avoid WSW winds? Small typo. Meant to say to the Charlotte would want to be to the north or west of the 850 mb low so yes, you'd rather the 850 mb low pass to your south and east. Being under it is fine as well...in fact, that's where you'll likely get some of the best lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: It's not quite the GOAT is it? 29 years ago to the day (Jan 7, 1988) Now! Will be hard to see that in my lifetime!! MBY hasn't seen a 6" snow since March 1st of 09! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 16 minutes ago, burgertime said: Whoever is right on that line of sleet/snow is going to really cash in. I was a bit worried about this, seems CLT can never avoid mixing issues. Once again I-85 could end up as the snow/mix line. I love living dangerously! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boknows34 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, claycochaser said: Because there's a layer 1 mile deep above the surface that's 2-3 C. That's how. Well, in that case, that would do it...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Definitely not liking northward march of sleet transition on Hires models thus far. We should all know the drill down in the south and just nowcast the crap out of the sleet line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 latest hrrr shows heavy snow line literally splitting wake county in half tonight at midnight. north of that line will be money, south of that line and it will be a rain/sleetfest. sweating it out here in nw wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Here's the final map from the RGEM. A little more came in the latter frames for the Triangle. The cutoff for Wake County is always hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: Once again I-85 could end up as the snow/mix line. I love living dangerously! Worm has gotta turn at some point. FWIW Hi-Res NAM is giving most of Mecklenburg county a lot of ZR and sleet. Totally blanks on snow.....but it also looks suspect even at 2m temps to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Sucks for RDU, going to miss heavy snows by just miles again. 85/40 corridor looks sweet though. Lol, we're not far from flirting with rain. There's still time for a few more ticks NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 In Wake County when mixing is a threat, it ALWAYS ends up more ice than snow. At this point in southwestern wake, I am almost expecting all sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, snowinnc said: Well that's just flat out depressing. We might just get totally blanked in Wake County. Is there any chance that this could actually move south or is it just going to keep moving NW? I can't remember the last time NW SC got more snow than Wake County. Congrats to the Triad and Charlotte though! Well here is the meteo for Raleigh, just NW it may be all snow and just SE may be all sleet. I feel like if you bisect Wake Co, the NW half will be mostly snow and the SE will be 50/50 mix. Well atleast I hope I am 50/50 sleet. Verbatim this is showing 4-6" of snow/sleet. Pretty much a Jan 96 or 10 gradient. We don't have HP in the perfect spot, which is what we need for all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 12z nam for rdu is the bets run yet. a few miles will make the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, DopplerWx said: 12z nam for rdu is the bets run yet. a few miles will make the difference. That is encouraging to see those continue to get better and better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 This run of the GFS looks to have more QPF but looks farther North and North West to me. Cold is going to have a hard time getting south in Georgia at least how it looks out to 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 28 minutes ago, lookingnorth said: It looks bad for the Triangle. compare that compare that to the NAM for RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 GFS appears to be warming up in the lower levels....crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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